• 交易商正开始利用燃料库存紧张的机会，柴油和汽油的仓位处于10年来的最高水平。
• 交易商把他们在欧洲的柴油仓位增加了1400万桶，把在美国的汽油仓位增加了500万桶。
• 尽管汽油库存一直在上升，但炼油商正努力增加馏分油库存，这可能会导致未来汽油产量下降。
据美国油价网2月8日报道，在对原油短缺的担忧之后，交易商开始利用燃料库存紧张的机会也只是时间问题。 交易商已经开始这么做了：据路透社市场分析师约翰·肯普称，柴油和汽油的市场份额是10年来最高的。
肯普在其每周对冲基金石油买盘专栏中称，交易商最近买进相当于200万桶美国柴油的仓位，也令他们在欧洲的柴油仓位和在美国的汽油仓位分别增加1400万桶和500万桶。 这位分析师补充称，在过去7周中的6周里，对冲基金和其他主要市场参与者一直是交易最活跃的6个石油合同的净买家。
在原油供应紧张的情况下，人们担心燃料供应是很自然的。 事实上，就目前而言，这种担忧似乎是温和的。 在全球最大的汽油市场美国，汽油库存一直在上升，这意味着不存在短缺的危险。 然而，中间馏分油库存在过去3周一直在下降，而原油库存也是如此。
肯普1月份曾报告称，美国原油库存在过去81周中有56周出现下降，自2020年7月达到峰值以来，迄今累计减少了2.73亿桶，超过了疫情第一阶段增加的2.04亿桶。 这位路透社分析师称这是一种长期的供应不足，帮助推高了石油基准。
所有这些都可能是暂时的：据预测，今年美国石油产量将会上升，而且还会大幅上升。 仅埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司就计划将二叠纪盆地的产量分别提高25%和10%。 受油价上涨的鼓舞，私营页岩参与者也在加大油气钻探力度。
另一方面，主要由欧佩克+推动的全球对石油供应的不安，以及大多数成员国无法按照原计划增加产量，可能会蔓延到燃料领域，特别是当欧佩克+产量不足的情况延续时。
肯普说，还有其他因素可能导致石油供应更加紧张，那就是炼油商试图增加馏分油库存。肯普解释说，这需要以牺牲汽油和柴油等较轻燃料为代价，最大限度地提高中间馏分油的产量，这意味着汽油产量降低，但炼油厂的原油消费量增加。
这可能是油价继续走高的另一个原因，许多分析师预测布伦特原油价格将上升至每桶100美元。 有人说这种情况是前所未有的。
高盛公司大宗商品研究主管杰弗里·柯里本周在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我做这一行已经30年了，从未见过像这样的市场。”“这是一场能源分子危机。 我们什么都没有了，不管是石油、天然气、煤炭、铜、铝，只要你能想到的，我们都没有了。”
DTN高级市场分析师特洛伊·文森特对《雅虎财经》表示：“我们的处境岌岌可危。”“尤其是当它与欧佩克的备用产能有关时，到今年夏天的时候，我们看到的备用产能将比多年来看到的要少得多。”
彭博新闻社本周报道称，其大宗商品现货指数今年已升至创纪录水平，部分原因是受原油价格飙升的推动。 看来，燃料供应紧张的说法无助于平息股市反弹。 如果有什么区别的话，那就是它将进一步促进这一进程。
如果目前的趋势继续下去，近期的前景不容乐观。 尽管各国央行努力通过提高借贷成本来抑制通胀，但随着大宗商品价格全面走高，通胀可能会继续困扰经济。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
Traders Are Taking Advantage Of A Looming Fuel Shortage
· Traders are starting to take advantage of tight fuel stocks, with positions in diesel and gasoline among the highest in a decade.
· Traders boosted their positions in European gas oil by 14 million barrels and in U.S. gasoline by 5 million barrels.
· While gasoline stocks have been rising, refiners are working to boost distillate stocks which could lead to less gasoline production in the future.
After fears of a crude oil shortage, it was only a matter of time before traders started to take advantage of tight fuel stocks as well. And they have begun doing that: positions in diesel and gasoline are among the highest in a decade, according to Reuters' market analyst John Kemp.
Traders bought the equivalent of 2 million barrels of U.S. diesel recently, also boosting their positions in European gas oil by 14 million barrels and in U.S. gasoline by 5 million barrels, Kemp said in his weekly column on hedge fund oil buying. The analyst added that hedge funds and other prominent market players had been net buyers across the six most actively traded oil contracts for six of the past seven weeks.
That there would be concern about fuel supply amid tight crude oil supply is only natural. In fact, the worry seems to be mild, for now. In the United States, the world's largest market, gasoline stocks have been rising, which means there is no danger of a shortage. Yet middle distillate stocks have been falling for the lastthree weeks. And so have crude oil inventories.
Last month Kemp reported that U.S. crude oil stocks had declined in 56 of the last 81 weeks, shedding a total of 273 million barrels since their peak in July 2020, more than making up for a build of 204 million barrels during the first stage of the pandemic. The Reuters analyst called this a chronic undersupply that helped push oil benchmarks higher.
All this could be temporary: forecasts are that U.S. oil production will rise this year, and rise substantially. Exxon and Chevron alone plan to boost their output in the Permian Basin by 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Private shale players are also drilling more, emboldened by higher oil prices.
On the other hand, the global unease about oil supply, driven chiefly by OPEC+ and the inability of most of its members to ramp up production in line with original plans, might spill into fuels, especially as the OPEC+ underproduction extends.
There's something else that could contribute to an even tighter oil supply, according to Kemp, and that is refiners trying to boost distillate stocks. This, Kemp explains, would require maximizing the output of middle distillates at the expense of lighter fuels such as gasoline and diesel, which would mean lower gasoline production but higher crude oil consumption by refineries.
This could be yet another reason for oil prices to go higher still, with the number of analysts predicting Brent at $100 multiplying by the day. Some say the situation is unprecedented.
"I've been doing this 30 years and I've never seen markets like this," Goldman Sachs' head of commodity research Jeffrey Currie told Bloomberg this week in an interview. "This is a molecule crisis. We're out of everything, I don't care if it's oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we're out of it."
"We're in a precarious situation," Troy Vincent, senior market analyst at DTN, told Yahoo Finance. "Especially as it pertains to OPEC's spare capacity to be much smaller by the time we get to summer than what we've seen in many years."
Bloomberg reported this week its Commodity Spot Index had risen to a record this year, driven in part by the surge in crude oil prices. The suggestion of fuel supply tightness will do nothing to calm the rally, it seems. If anything, it would further contribute to it.
If the current trend continues, the immediate future does not look good. Despite central banks' efforts to tame inflation by raising borrowing costs, with commodities across the board getting more expensive, inflation will likely continue to plague economies.
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