据美国油价网报道，欧佩克2月10日表示，更强劲的经济增长和对疫情限制的放松，使全球石油需求的短期前景光明，具有上行潜力，并保持其对今年石油消费将超过疫情前水平的预测。
在其备受关注的2月份月度石油市场报告(MOMR)中，欧佩克将今年的年度石油需求预估小幅上调1万桶，至每日1.008亿桶，高于1月报告中预估的每日1.0079亿桶。
欧佩克对今年第三季度和第四季度的全球石油日需求预估分别上调了3万桶和2万桶。 欧佩克预计，今年第三季度全球石油日需求平均为1.0132亿桶，第四季度为1.0292亿桶。
今年全球整个年度石油日需求增幅维持在420万桶不变。 欧佩克表示，今年全球平均石油日需求预计为1.008亿桶，将超过2019年的水平。
在1月份的报告中，欧佩克也保持其对今年全球石油需求增长的预期不变，并表示，奥米克戎毒株对全球石油需求的影响比一个月前的预期要弱，尽管货币紧缩政策，但石油市场将在今年全年得到良好的支持。
在2月份的报告中，欧佩克似乎更加乐观，尽管它保持全球石油需求增长预测不变。欧佩克在报告中表示：“由于全球多数经济体预计将增长强劲，全球石油需求的近期前景肯定是光明的。”
欧佩克表示，疫情防控、供应链中断、通货膨胀和劳动力短缺可能导致全球经济增长放缓，这将继续是今年全球经济面临的主要挑战。
“尽管如此，基于持续观察到的强劲经济复苏，在财政刺激的支持下，GDP已经达到疫情前的水平，以及全球贸易规模达到历史最高水平，预测的上行潜力普遍存在。”
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
OPEC Sees Bright Prospects For Global Oil Demand This Year
Stronger economic growth and the easing of COVID restrictions make the near-term prospects for global oil demand bright, with an upside potential, OPEC said on Thursday, keeping its forecast that consumption will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the organization revised up slightly, by 10,000 bpd, its annual oil demand estimate for 2022 to 100.8 million bpd, up from 100.79 million bpd in last month’s report.
Estimates for the third and fourth quarter of 2022 were revised up by 30,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd, respectively. OPEC sees global oil demand averaging 101.32 million bpd in Q3 2022, and 102.92 million bpd in Q4.
Overall annual demand growth this year was left unchanged at 4.2 million bpd. This year’s expected global demand average of 100.8 million bpd will exceed the 2019 level, OPEC said.
In last month’s report, OPEC also left its demand growth estimate for 2022 unchanged, and said that the effect of Omicron on oil demand had been weaker than expected a month earlier, and the oil market was set to be well-supported throughout 2022 despite monetary tightening policies.
In this month’s report, OPEC appears even more optimistic, although it left the demand growth forecast unchanged.
“As most world economies are expected to grow stronger, the near-term prospects for world oil demand are certainly on the bright side,” the cartel said in the report.
The COVID containment, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and labor shortages that could slow economic growth will continue to be the main challenges to the global economy this year, OPEC said.
“Nevertheless, upside potential to the forecast prevails, based on an ongoing observed strong economic recovery with the GDP already reaching pre-pandemic levels, supported by fiscal stimulus, and global trade levels reaching an all-time high in volume terms. Moreover, mobility is expected to gain further momentum, particularly with regard to the travel and tourism sector,” the organization added.
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