据美国彭博新闻社2022年2月17日报道，在一波整体价格波动的影响下，石油期货曲线正在显示出市场有史以来最强劲的时期之一。
布伦特原油价格本周在90美元上方剧烈波动，但市场结构的变化更为剧烈。
近期合约相对于更远期合约有巨大的溢价，这表明交易商们现在就在吵吵嚷嚷地购买原油。 一些期货价差已达到2007年以来的最高水平。
全球最重要的现货物理油价——布伦特原油——的走势最为明显。2月16日，布伦特原油价格自2014年以来首次突破每桶100美元。 最近几周，北海原油现货市场蓬勃发展，随着欧洲炼油商需求激增，部分现货的价差达到历史最高水平。
英国能源咨询公司Energy Aspects包括Amrita Sen在内的分析师本周在给客户的报告中写道：“布伦特原油价格走强明显表明，炼油商正在采购短途原油。”“在中期内，保持市场平衡的唯一途径仍然是高油价，以减缓需求增长。”
在美国，位于俄克拉荷马州的关键枢纽库欣中心的原油库存处于2018年以来的最低水平，从而刺激了西得克萨斯中质原油的紧张。
伦敦布伦特原油期货2月17日下跌1.6%，接近每桶93.33美元。 西得克萨斯中质原油下跌1.7%，至每桶92.11美元。
上周，国际能源署(IEA)提高了其历史需求数据，提供了最新迹象，表明能源消费量一直高于预期。 尽管多数预测机构曾预计，今年年初全球石油库存将显著增加，但这一预期迄今未能实现。
这种供应紧张只会让有关整体油价将很快突破每桶100美元的猜测进一步升温。 数月来，期权交易商一直在押注这一结果，价值数百万桶的合约价格在100美元及以上。
SEB AB大宗商品首席分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示：“自圣诞节前以来，价格走势一直是非常看涨的单向线。除非市场非常紧张，否则你不会看到这种情况。”
地缘政治风险
最近几天整体油价的波动，是由市场两大地缘政治风险推动的。
瑞银集团大宗商品分析师乔瓦尼·斯陶诺沃说：“目前市场受媒体关注，市场对来自东欧和中东核谈判相关的敏感消息做出反应。”
李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社
原文如下：
Oil Curves Show One of the Tightest Markets Ever
Oil futures curves are indicating one of the strongest periods the market has ever seen, amid a bout of headline price volatility.
Brent prices have swung wildly above $90 this week, but there’s been even more action in the market’s structure.
Nearby contracts are commanding enormous premiums over those further out, indicating that traders are clamoring for barrels right now. Some futures spreads have reached their strongest levels in data going back to 2007.
Nowhere is the move clearer than in the world’s most important physical oil price -- Dated Brent -- which on Wednesday topped $100 for the first time since 2014. The market for real barrels in the North Sea has boomed in recent weeks, with differentials for some physical cargoes hitting the highest on record as demand from European refiners surges.
“The strength in Dated Brent clearly suggests refiners are out procuring short-haul barrels,” Energy Aspects analysts including Amrita Sen wrote in a note to clients this week. “The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth.”
In the U.S., stockpiles at the key hub of Cushing, Oklahoma are at their lowest since 2018, spurring tightness in West Texas Intermediate crude.
Brent futures were down 1.6% in London near $93.33 on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate lost 1.7% to $92.11.
Last week, the International Energy Agency boosted its historical demand numbers, offering the latest indication that consumption has been running ahead of expectations. While most forecasting agencies had expected global oil stockpiles to rise markedly in the early part of the year, that has so far failed to materialize.
The tightness has only added to calls that headline prices will soon top $100. Options traders have been betting on that outcome for months, with millions of barrels worth of contracts at $100 and above.
“Price action since just before Christmas has been an incredibly bullish one-way street,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “You don’t see that unless market is very, very tight.”
Geopolitical Risks
The moves in headline prices in recent days have been driven by two of the market’s biggest geopolitical risks -- the potential return of Iranian barrels to the market and political tension around Ukraine.
On Thursday, Russian state media cited Moscow-backed separatists as saying Ukrainian forces had violated cease-fire rules overnight. While Russia has insisted that it’s serious about easing tensions.
“It’s a headline-driven market at the moment, with the market reacting to sensitive news from Eastern Europe and related to the Mid-east nuclear talks,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.
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