因较冷天气预测 美国天然气价格上涨近10%

据管道&天然气杂志网2月16日报道，周三美国天然气期货跃升近10%，至近两周高点，因市场预测3月初的天气将比此前预期冷得多，供暖需求也将高于预期。

贸易商指出，尽管美国天然气产量在过去一个月因寒冷天气减少而缓慢回升，而且由于俄罗斯和乌克兰的紧张局势似乎有所缓和，欧洲天然气期货价格下跌了6%，但美国天然气价格还是上涨了。

在过去一个多月里，美国一直与其他国家合作，以确保主要来自液化天然气的天然气供应将继续流向欧洲，以防俄罗斯切断对欧洲其他地区的出口。

美国和欧洲表示，可能会促使俄罗斯削减对欧洲的部分天然气出口。 俄罗斯提供了欧洲约 30%-40% 的天然气供应，2021年总计约163亿立方英尺/天。

然而，自今年年初以来，美国天然气市场更多地关注于美国天气和国内供需的变化，而不是世界大事。2022年迄今为止，只有三分之一的时间美国天然气价格追随欧洲价格，而去年第四季度为三分之二。

在经历了几周近乎创纪录的波动后，3月交付的美国即月天然气期货<NGc1>价格上涨41.1美分，涨幅9.5%，收于每百万英国热单位4.717美元，为2月3日以来的最高收盘价。

根据数据提供商Refinitiv表示，由于寒冷天气导致几个产油区的油气井冻结，美国本土48个州的平均天然气产量从去年12月创纪录的973亿立方英尺/天下降至1月的940亿立方英尺/天和2月迄今的927亿立方英尺/天。

但从日产量来看，自2月4日冬季风暴期间天然气产量降至863亿立方英尺/天以来，几乎每天都在增加，2月11日达到952亿立方英尺/天的高点，这是自1月1日以来的最高水平。然而，周三的产量连续第二天下滑，降至最初一周低点943亿立方英尺/天。

尽管气象学家预测的天气比之前预期的要冷，但他们仍然预测下周的气温将高于本周。

据Refinitiv预计，美国日均天然气需求(包括出口)将从本周的1229亿立方英尺降至下周的1212亿立方英尺。下周的预测高于Refinitiv周二的预测。

随着全球风投LNG（Venture Global LNG）在路易斯安那州Calcasieu Pass出口工厂的液化生产线投入使用，2月份到目前为止，流向美国液化天然气出口工厂的天然气流量日均达到127亿立方英尺，这超过1月份124亿立方英尺的月度记录。

一艘油轮于2月7日抵达Calcasieu，可能会在本周带着工厂的第一批货物离开。

贸易商表示，只要全球天然气价格继续远高于美国期货，美国液化天然气需求将保持强劲，因为世界各地的公用事业公司都在争抢货物，以满足亚洲激增的需求，并补充欧洲的低库存。

郝芬 译自 管道 & 天然气杂志网

原文如下：

US Natural Gas Jumps Nearly 10% on Colder Forecasts

U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 10% to a near two-week high on Wednesday on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand through early March than previously expected.

Traders noted that prices rose despite the slow return of U.S. production from cold weather-related reductions over the past month, and a 6% drop in European gas futures due to what looks like an easing of Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Over the past month or so, the United States has worked with other nations to ensure that gas supplies, mostly from LNG, would keep flowing to Europe in case Russia cuts off exports to the rest of the continent.

The United States and Europe have said they would likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe. Russia provides around 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 Bcf/d in 2021.

Since the start of the year, however, the U.S. gas market has focused more on changes in U.S. weather, domestic supply and demand than world events. So far in 2022, U.S. gas followed European prices only about a third of the time versus two-thirds in the fourth quarter.

After weeks of near record volatility, U.S. front-month gas futures <NGc1> for March delivery rose 41.1 cents, or 9.5%, to settle at $4.717 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Feb. 3.

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 Bcf/d in December to 94.0 Bcf/d in January and 92.7 Bcf/d so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions.

But on a daily basis, gas production has gained almost every day since dropping to 86.3 Bcf/d during a Feb. 4 winter storm, reaching a high of 95.2 Bcf/d on Feb. 11, the most since Jan. 1. Output on Wednesday, however, was on track to slip for a second day in a row to a preliminary one-week low of 94.3 Bcf/d.

Even though meteorologists forecast colder weather than previously expected, they still predicted higher temperatures next week than this week.

Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 122.9 Bcf/d this week to 121.2 Bcf/d next week. Next week's forecast was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.7 Bcf/d so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 Bcf/d, as liquefaction trains at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass export plant in Louisiana enter service.

A tanker arrived at Calcasieu on Feb. 7 and will likely leave with the plant's first cargo this week.

Traders said demand for U.S. LNG would remain strong so long as global gas prices keep trading well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe.