Apicorp：今年中东和北非地区能源投资将继续增加

据阿拉伯贸易网2022年2月21日利雅得报道，中东和北非地区(MENA)今年的能源投资预计将从8050亿美元起增加，并在未来5年内继续增加，原因是石油和天然气价格上涨，以及计划中的非常规天然气和上游投资增加。  

对于石化产品，MENA地区进一步整合和合理化的努力将继续进行，重新配置的石化厂将转向高利润产品，如塑料包装膜和保健和卫生产品。

阿拉伯石油投资公司（Apicorp）在其2022年年度最佳选择展望报告中表示，MENA地区预计将塑造今年该地区能源市场格局的主要趋势。

Apicorp说，“我们将在下游项目中看到强劲投资管道反映了MENA地区推动把更多资金投向下游项目，特别是棕地石化项目，而不是绿地项目。 鉴于目前的市场环境更倾向于提高现有项目的成本和运营效率，而不是单纯的扩张，这是有道理的。”

至于能源市场，该报告预测，由于欧佩克+和非欧佩克国家的石油产量增加，以及天然气产量和液化天然气供应的增加，能源市场在今年将保持相对稳定。 预计布伦特原油均价将在65美元/桶 和75美元/桶之间。 至于天然气，亚洲和欧洲的JKM和TTF/NBP枢纽价格预计将从去年的历史高点大幅下降，特别是在冬季之后。  

与此同时，在Apicorp最新的5年展望报告中，MENA地区能源投资小幅增加了130亿美元，在今年的中期，石油和天然气价格的上涨将持续下去。  

报告分析的趋势包括油气价格对MENA地区能源投资的影响，以及拖累整体经济复苏的主要因素。

Apicorp首席执行官Ahmed Ali Attiga博士指出：“尽管大宗商品价格的波动预计将持续到2022年，但短期内的好消息是，石油和天然气价格可能在今年全年保持高位，这为包括可再生能源和ESG相关项目在内的能源投资提供了支持。 MENA地区的电力行业投资预计也将继续繁荣，并加速向可再生能源的转型。 总的来说，MENA地区预计将在未来5年增加近20吉瓦的太阳能发电。  

MENA地区将成为正在进行的全球能源转型的中心舞台，所有人的目光都将转向埃及和阿联酋，埃及将在今年11月份主办第27届联合国气候变化大会，而阿联酋将于2023年主办第28届联合国气候变化大会。 然而，报告指出，尽管这一转型继续稳步推进，但它可能会受到来自各国政府的混合政策信号的影响，因为它们试图平衡减排、能源可负担性和能源安全等往往很难协调的任务。  

因此，需要一项可持续和全面的政策，以避免政策规模过于倾向于这些因素之一，因为这可能导致意想不到的后果，如市场扭曲、加剧波动和能源短缺。

由于疫情大流行、宏观经济政策的不确定性以及供应链中断，今年大宗商品市场的持续波动预计将进一步加剧政策制定者本已承受的巨大压力。 尽管去年出现温和的——尽管不均衡的——复苏，但这种改善还需要一段时间才能转移到下游领域，并缓解今年的成本压力。  

报告对能源投资趋势的分析表明，预计今年石油和天然气价格继续强劲，为恢复新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的活动提供了机会。

围绕复苏的不确定性将继续影响市场动态的最终走向。 鉴于全球疫苗的不平等和新冠病毒的不断演变，各国政府仍在努力应对公共卫生与经济复苏之间的两难局面。  

除了全球贸易、供应链和服务外，当前全球病例数激增也将对国际旅行和旅游业产生不利影响。 这将削弱今年的经济增长，这已经促使一些地区略微下调了今年的GDP增长预测，并可能导致全球经济不对称复苏，这未必对所有国家都是可持续的。

另一个不确定性来自于政府需要采取财政紧缩措施来控制开支和抑制飙升的通货膨胀。 尽管去年底市场回报率很高(标准普尔500指数回报率为27%)，但高就业增长和大宗商品价格飙升推高了通胀率。

由于公共财政刺激计划的撤出、资产购买计划的缩减以及利率的上升，人们对滞胀的担忧日益迫近。 尽管这些措施很可能导致经济复苏放缓，但在通胀周期逐渐升温的情况下，滞后的失业率预计仍将相对较高，而通胀周期可能终究不是短暂的。

李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网

原文如下：

Energy investments in Mena will continue to grow: Apicorp

Energy investments in Middle East and North Africa (Mena) are forecast to grow in 2022 from $805 billion and continue in the next five years on the strength of higher oil and gas prices and planned unconventional gas and upstream investments.

For petrochemicals, the drive for further integration and rationalisation will continue with reconfigurable petrochemical plants shifting to high-margin products such as plastic packaging films and healthcare and hygiene products, The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp), a multilateral development financial institution, said in its annual Top Picks 2022 outlook on the key trends that are expected to shape the Mena energy markets landscape this year.

“The strong pipeline of investments we are seeing in the downstream projects reflects the region’s push to direct more funds to this sector, especially in brownfield petrochemicals projects versus greenfield ones. This makes sense in light of the current market conditions which favor improving cost and operating efficiencies in existing projects rather than sheer expansion,” said Nicolas Thevenot, Managing Director of Corporate Banking at Apicorp.

As for the energy markets, the report forecasts that they will remain comparatively stable during 2022 due to higher oil production by Opec+ and non-Opec countries and increased gas production and LNG supply. Brent is expected to average between $65/bbl. and $75/bbl. As for gas, the JKM and TTF/NBP hub prices in Asia and Europe are expected to cool down considerably from their all-time highs of 2021, especially after the winter season.

Meanwhile, the uptick in regional energy investments, which registered a modest $13 billion increase in Apicorp’s latest five-year outlook, will continue over the mid-term on the strength of higher oil and gas prices throughout 2022.

Among the trends the report examines is the impact of oil and gas prices on energy investments in the region and the main factors weighing down on broader economic recovery. 

“Despite the volatility in commodity prices which is expected to persist throughout 2022, the good news in the short-term is that oil and gas prices will likely remain elevated throughout the year, providing support for energy investments including renewable energy and ESG-related projects. Power sector investments in Mena are also expected to continue to thrive, with an accelerating shift towards renewables. Collectively, the region is expected to add nearly 20 GW of solar power over the next five years,” noted Dr Ahmed Ali Attiga, CEO of Apicorp.

The Mena region will take centre stage in the ongoing global energy transition as all eyes shift to Egypt, which will host COP27 in November -- and UAE for COP28 in 2023. Yet while the transition continues to steadily gain momentum, the report notes that it may be marred by mixed policy signals from governments as they attempt to balance imperatives which are oftentimes very difficult to align: emissions reduction, energy affordability and energy security.

Thus, a sustainable and comprehensive policy is needed in order to avoid tilting the policy scale too far towards in favor of one of these factors, as this may lead to unintended consequences such as market distortions, heightened volatility, and energy shortfalls.

The already substantial pressure on policymakers is expected to be further exacerbated by continued volatility in commodity markets in 2022 due to the pandemic, uncertainty over macroeconomic policy, and supply chain disruptions. Despite the modest –-albeit uneven—recovery in 2021, it will take time for this improvement to migrate downstream and ease cost pressures this year.

The report’s analysis of energy investment trends suggests that the expected robust oil and gas prices in 2022 have triggered an opportunity to return to pre-pandemic activity. 

The uncertainty around Covid recovery will continue to influence how market dynamics will ultimately play out. Given the global vaccine inequity and a constantly evolving virus, governments are still grappling with the dilemma of public health versus economic recovery. 

In addition to global trade, supply chains and services, the current surge in cases globally will also adversely affect international travel and tourism. This will dent economic growth during 2022, which has already prompted a slight downward revision of the 2022 GDP growth forecasts in some regions and a likely asymmetric global recovery that is not necessarily sustainable for all countries.

Another uncertainty stems from the need for governments to introduce fiscal austerity measures to rein in spending and curb soaring inflation. Although markets ended 2021 with high returns (27% in the case of the S&P 500 index), high jobs growth and soaring commodity prices pushed inflation rates higher.

A fear of stagflation looms as public fiscal stimulus packages are withdrawn, asset purchasing programs are tapered and interest rates rise. While these measures will very likely cause economic recovery to slow down, the lagging unemployment rates are expected to remain relatively high amid a simmering inflationary cycle that may turn out not to be transitory after all.