业内人士认为能源转型速度比以往任何时候都要快

据美国钻井网站报道，挪威船级社（DNV）表示，能源专业人士透露，能源行业领导人认为，能源转型的速度比以往任何时候都要快，今年将是能源行业增长强劲的一年。

根据DNV发布的一份行业洞察报告，来自电力、可再生能源和油气行业的资深业内人士认为，这一转型带来的巨大商业机遇超过了其业务面临的风险。  

电力公司和可再生能源公司对行业增长的信心最高，尽管石油和天然气公司的信心较低，但油气行业已经从去年的信心崩溃中反弹。  

基本技能短缺是能源行业增长的最大障碍，其次是缺乏政策支持。 可再生能源参与者表示，许可证和许可证出售招标问题是能源行业增长的最大障碍，电力和可再生能源行业都指出，供应链压力是一个重大障碍。 近三分之二的能源行业人士认为，供应链问题正在减缓能源转型。

DNV能源系统首席执行官迪特列·恩格尔说，“我们看到了一个乐观的能源行业：对增长充满信心，增加投资，并在能源转型中做出关键的战略决策。 但我们也看到了从技术短缺到政策、融资、供应链和许可证等诸多障碍的重大担忧，因为能源系统转型的艰巨任务正在加快步伐。”

保持可靠的能源供应也是一个问题，许多油气行业人士认为，勘探和上游扩张方面的投资不足，无法满足未来的需求。 约38%的油气行业受访者表示，他们的机构发现越来越难以为项目获得合理定价的融资。

恩格尔说，“世界还没有走上实现《巴黎协定》目标的轨道。 我们能够而且必须做得更多，以更快地过渡到深度脱碳的能源系统。 我们看到，在选择转型的时机、将化石燃料的减少与清洁能源的增加相匹配方面，情况很复杂。这不仅体现在原始能源总量上，而且体现在能源的可承受性和可靠性上。 解决办法就是以更快的速度扩大清洁能源的使用。”

恩格尔补充说，“在当今的能源行业中，乐观是一种非常必要和强大的力量。 乐观的力量是人类最伟大成就背后的力量，从医药到登月，实现能源转型，将全球变暖限制在1.5°C当然属于这一类。”

预计大型资本密集型项目将在未来一年获得批准，而几乎一半的行业预计他们的机构将增加资本支出。  

绿色氢能源是大多数能源公司在今年增加投资的具体技术，其次是太阳能、海上浮式风能和碳捕获和储存。

很多行业都在增加对脱碳的投资，但只有42%的人对公司实现脱碳目标持乐观态度，28%的人完全持悲观态度。 

许多业内人士认为，COP26会议取得的成果还不够，政策上的失败阻碍了在气候变化问题上采取更大的行动。 不到一半的人表示，在其业务所在的国家或地区实现净零目标是现实的，而且是可以实现的。 碳行业认为，就全球碳市场规则达成一致，是COP26会议最受欢迎和鼓舞的成果。

恩格尔说，“目前，我们看到行业的短期乐观和世界在脱碳方面的长期进展之间不匹配。 当务之急是减少温室气体排放。 正如我们在《能源转型展望》报告中所阐明的，以及我们从行业角度所看到的那样：技术和资本已经为更快的转型做好了准备。 是政策和缺乏可执行的监管计划阻碍了清洁能源的未来。”

能源行业越来越关注数字化，电力和可再生能源行业的领导人认为，如果没有数字化系统，分散的能源系统是不可能实现净零目标的。  

未来一年，能源公司将扩大合作的规模和范围，与新的利益相关者合作，以适应能源转型。  

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Energy Transition Accelerating Faster Than Ever, Industry Says

Energy professionals revealed that energy industry leaders believe the energy transition is accelerating faster than ever, and that 2022 is set to be a strong year for industry growth, classification society DNV said.

Senior industry players from across power, renewables, and oil and gas believe the huge commercial opportunities presented by the transition outweigh the risks to their businesses, according to an industry insight published by DNV.

Confidence for growth is highest among power and renewables companies, and while it is lower in oil and gas, the sector has bounced back from a crash in confidence going into 2021.

Skills shortages are the greatest barrier to growth for the energy industry, followed by a lack of policy support. Renewables players say permitting and licensing issues are the greatest barrier to growth, and the power and renewables sectors both point to supply chain pressures as a significant barrier. Almost two thirds of the energy industry believe that supply chain issues are slowing down the energy transition.

“We see an optimistic energy industry: confident about growth, boosting investment, and making critical strategic decisions in the energy transition. But we also see significant concerns about barriers to progress – from a skills shortage to policies, financing, supply chains, and permitting – as the enormous task of transforming the energy system gathers pace,” said Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV.

Maintaining reliable energy supply is also a concern, with many in the oil and gas industry convinced that not enough is being invested in exploration and upstream expansion to meet future demand. Some 38 percent of oil and gas respondents say that their organization is finding it increasingly difficult to secure reasonably priced finance for projects.

“The world is not on track to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. We can and must do much more to transition faster to a deeply decarbonized energy system. We see complexities in timing the transition, and in matching the scaling down of fossil fuels with the scaling up of clean energy – in terms of raw total energy, but also in its affordability and reliability. The solution is to scale up clean energy much, much faster.

“Optimism is a much-needed and powerful force in the energy industry today. The power of optimism is behind most of humanity’s greatest accomplishments, from medicines to moon-landings, and achieving an energy transition that limits global warming to 1.5°C certainly fits into that category,” Engel added.

Expectations are on the rise for large, capital-intensive projects to be approved in the year ahead, while almost half of the industry expects their organization to increase capital expenditure.

Green hydrogen is the specific technology that the greatest number of energy companies are targeting for increased investment in 2022, followed by solar, floating offshore wind, and carbon capture and storage.

Much of the industry is increasing investment in decarbonization, but it is telling that only 42 percent are optimistic about their company reaching its decarbonization targets, and 28 percent are outright pessimistic.

Many in the industry believe COP26 did not achieve enough, and that policy failures are holding back greater action on climate change. Less than half say net-zero targets in the country or territory where their business is based are realistic and achievable. The industry finds agreement on rules for a global carbon market the most welcome and encouraging outcome of COP26.

“For now, we see a mismatch between the industry’s shorter-term optimism and the world’s longer-term progress on decarbonization. The priority needs to be reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As we make clear in our Energy Transition Outlook, and as we see in the view from the industry: technology and capital are ready for a faster transition. It is policy and a lack of actionable regulatory plans that are holding back a clean energy future,” Engel said.

Much of the energy industry is increasingly focusing on digitalization, with power and renewables leaders concluding that a decentralized energy system is impossible without digital systems.

Energy companies will increase the scale and spread of their collaboration in the year ahead, working with new stakeholders as they adapt to the energy transition.