据美国钻井网站2022年3月8日报道，尽管2014年至2020年全球资本支出呈螺旋式下降趋势，但非洲油气工业的支出将在2022年及2022年以后呈现上升趋势。
根据非洲能源商会2022年第一季度的报告，非洲油气工业的资本支出在从2014年的600亿美元下降到2020年的225亿美元以后，今年将达到300亿美元。 这为成熟和新兴的油气生产商提供了一个建立有利于投资者的机制来吸引资本的机会。
按照目前预期的项目批准水平，到2025年，非洲上游支出预计将有所增加。 延期的项目和原定于2022年以后进行投资的项目将有可能对增长潜力做出显著贡献。
如果这些项目得以实现，到2024年前，潜在的支出可能会增加到近490亿美元。 与陆上项目相关的投资是最大的投资类别，在2022年至2025年期间，投资预计将超过680亿美元。
乌干达和肯尼亚也将对洛基查尔盆地的陆上新开发项目进行大规模投资。 如果不是最后一个开发项目的话，这个新开发项目可能是世界上最大的常规陆上项目之一。
海底回接作业将在2022年至2025年的累计支出中占据第二位，而且可能会越来越普遍，因为在现有基础设施上搭载较小的油气储量具有商业意义。 这一类别还包括液化天然气（LNG）开发的海上相关部分，考虑到莫桑比克预计的大型项目，这进一步提高了这一类别。
过去两年表明，非洲油气工业是受疫情影响最严重的年份之一。 运营商的最初反应包括推迟高盈亏平衡价格的项目，减少资本和运营支出，以及在较低油价曲线下的现金流中性预测。 然而，由于非洲地区的一些项目受到了制裁，现在的预测显示，2022年-2025年的支出将相对增加。 值得注意的是，2020年第四季度与2021年第四季度相比，资本支出同期收缩了约335亿美元。
与此同时，非洲几个即将到来的重大项目将在短期内推动大部分新支出。 被批准和开发的大部分天然气项目，如莫桑比克的Area 1 LNG项目、塞内加尔和毛里塔尼亚海上的Greater Tortue Ahemyim FLNG项目。
其他项目包括法国道达尔能源公司在乌干达的Tilenga项目、安哥拉的Cameia-Golfinho项目、阿尔及利亚国家石油公司在安哥拉的Isarene项目以及埃尼公司在安哥拉的Quiluma/Maboqueiro项目。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
African Oil And Gas Industry To See Impressive Growth In 2022
Despite global capital expenditure being on a downward spiral between 2014 and 2020, spending trends within Africa’s oil and gas industry will increase in 2022 and beyond.
According to the African Energy Chamber’s report for the first quarter of 2022, capital expenditure within Africa’s oil and gas sector will reach $30 billion in 2022 after a decline from $60 billion in 2014 to $22.5 billion in 2020. This provides an opportunity for both mature and emerging hydrocarbon producers to establish investor-friendly regimes to attract capital.
At the current expected project sanctioning levels, upstream spending towards 2025 is expected to see an increase. Deferred projects and the projects originally slated for investments from 2022 onwards will together have the potential to contribute to significant growth potential.
Should the projects materialize, the potential expenditure may increase to almost $49 billion by 2024. Investments related to onshore projects represent the single greatest category with investments reaching over $68 billion during the 2022 – 2025 period.
Big investments are also expected in Uganda and Kenya related to the greenfield onshore development of Lokichar basin. This greenfield development may be one of, if not the last, big conventional onshore project in the world.
Subsea tiebacks will take the second spot in 2022 – 2025 cumulative spending and are likely to be more and more common as it makes commercial sense to piggyback smaller hydrocarbon accumulations on existing infrastructure. This category also includes the offshore-related part of LNG developments which further boosts this category considering the mega-projects expected in Mozambique.
Years 2020 and 2021 showed that the African oil and gas industry was one of the hardest hit by the Covid-19 outbreak. The initial reaction from the operators included delays to the projects with high breakeven prices, reduction of capital and operating expenditure, and cashflow neutral forecast at lower oil price curves. However, as the region saw a few project sanctions, the 2022 – 2025 forecast now shows relatively increased spending. To be noted, Q4 2020 versus Q4 2021 capital expenditure comparison showed a contraction of about $33.5 billion during the same period.
Meanwhile, several upcoming major projects in Africa are driving the majority of the greenfield expenditure in the short term. Most of the volumes are to be sanctioned and developed are natural gas with projects like the Area 1 LNG project in Mozambique and the Greater Tortue Ahemyim FLNG project offshore Senegal and Mauritania leading the list.
Other projects include TotalEnergies’ Tilenga project in Uganda and Cameia-Golfinho in Angola, Sonatrach’s Isarene project in Angola, and Eni’s Quiluma/Maboqueiro in Angola.
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