高油价不足以吸引页岩生产商

• 美国页岩行业正在寻求提高产量，但它面临着两大障碍，可能会遏制其发展轨迹。  

• 供应链问题、失控的通货膨胀和日益严重的劳动力短缺阻碍了页岩行业提高产量的能力。

• 先锋自然资源公司首席执行官斯科特•谢菲尔德表示：“即使政府希望我们增产，我也不认为这个行业能够增产。”

据美国油价网3月1日报道，美国页岩产量正在恢复增长，但通胀和供应链瓶颈可能会阻碍今年美国的页岩产量增长轨迹，尽管油价已高达每桶100美元。  

据美国能源信息署（EIA）最新估计，美国2023年的原油日产量将达到创纪录的1260万桶，而今年的平均原油日产量预计将为1200万桶，比去年日增76万桶。  

然而，成本上涨、劳动力和设备短缺，以及对支出的持续限制和对最大独立石油公司油气钻探的限制，可能会减缓页岩产量的增长。 与2019年和2018年分别超过120万桶/天和160万桶/天的上升周期相比，美国页岩领域在降低国际原油价格和美国汽油价格方面发挥的作用将更小。  

“页岩产量增长面临的阻力” 

美国页岩巨头依欧格资源公司首席执行官以斯拉· 雅各布在日前举行的财报电话会议上表示：“我们认为，美国今年的页岩产量增长肯定会遇到一些阻力。”

雅各布补充说，“当我们考虑到已经公开讨论过的页岩产量增长预测时，我们可能更偏向于原油和凝析油的低端。 究其原因，我认为你会看到北美勘探开发领域承诺保持自律，再加上通胀和供应链压力。”

依欧格资源公司总裁兼首席运营官比利·赫尔姆斯指出，今年美国页岩领域开发活动和产量增长面临很多阻力。

赫尔姆斯在电话会议上表示，设备和劳动力的短缺是其中的一些不利因素，他举例说，在吸引钻井和压裂阶段的工人方面存在挑战，而且“大多数优质设备目前都已投入使用”。  

“希望这个行业能够在前进的基础上加强并变得更好。 但从这方面来说，今年将是充满挑战的一年，”赫尔姆斯如是说。

过去几周，其他页岩生产商和油田服务提供商都表示，今年的页岩产量增长面临不利因素。 例如，在最大的页岩远景区二叠纪盆地，压裂砂的供应出现短缺，这可能会延缓一些生产商的钻井计划，并导致砂价飙升。 这进一步增加了美国石油生产商的成本压力，他们已经在努力应对设备成本上涨和劳动力短缺。

分析师说，从理论上讲，每桶100美元的油价可能会让美国的石油产量大幅增加，但供应链限制和创纪录的沙价格可能会抑制产量增长。  

美国最大水力压裂服务提供商哈里伯顿首席执行官杰夫·米勒在1月份举行的第四季度收益电话会议上表示：“毫无疑问，备受期待的多年上升周期现在正在进行。” 但他也指出，“随着经济活动加速，市场出现了与货运、劳动力、沙子和其他投入相关的紧张局面。”

最大的独立石油公司控制产量增长

撇开供应链和成本通胀不谈，美国最大的独立石油公司并没有竞相开采过多的原油，即使油价每桶达到100美元。  

二叠纪盆地最大的石油生产商先锋自然资源公司首席执行官斯科特•谢菲尔德表示，该公司将不会打开水龙头，即使油价达到200美元，也将坚守生产原则。

谢菲尔德2月份接受彭博电视台记者采访时表示：“无论是油价150美元、200美元还是100美元，我们都不会改变页岩产量增长计划。”

美国页岩行业公众独立人士的资本约束对美国汽油价格和支持率来说都不是一个好兆头。 然而，先锋自然资源公司、大陆资源公司、响尾蛇能源公司和德文能源公司等公司保持纪律，计划每年的页岩产量增幅不超过5%。 

响尾蛇能源公司董事长兼首席执行官特拉维斯•斯蒂斯在日前举行的财报电话会议上表示：“响尾蛇能源公司的团队和董事会认为，我们没有理由把页岩产量增长放在股东回报之前。 因此，我们将继续保持纪律，保持今年的石油产量持平。” 

先锋自然资源公司谢菲尔德表示，大型页岩公司的资本支出纪律和许多生产商面临的供应链瓶颈将限制美国石油产量的增长。  

谢菲尔德在2月份曾告诉彭博社记者，“其他几家生产商在寻找压裂工人方面遇到了困难，他们找不到劳动力，也找不到沙子；这将阻碍页岩产量的增长。”

谢菲尔德表示：“即使政府希望我们增加页岩产量，我也不认为这个行业能够增产。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

High Oil Prices Aren’t Enough To Tempt Shale Producers

·     America’s shale industry is looking to ramp up production, but it is facing two major hurdles that could curb its trajectory.

·     Supply chain issues, runaway inflation and a growing labor shortage have hindered the industry’s ability to increase output. 

·    "Even if the president wants us to grow, I just don't think the industry can grow anyway," said Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield.

U.S. shale production is back in growth mode, but inflation and supply chain bottlenecks could hobble the growth trajectory this year despite the tempting economics of $100 oil.  

The United States is set to post an annual record of 12.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production in 2023, while this year's average is forecast at 12 million bpd, up by 760,000 bpd from last year, according to EIA's latest estimates.

Yet, cost inflation, labor and equipment shortages, and continued restraint in spending and drilling from the biggest public independents could slow output growth. The U.S. shale patch is set to play a more minor role in potentially bringing down international crude oil prices and American gasoline prices than it did in the previous upcycles when annual growth topped 1.2 million bpd in 2019 and 1.6 million bpd in 2018.

'Headwinds To Growth'

"We think the U.S. is definitely going to face some headwinds in growth on this year," Ezra Yacob, chief executive of shale giant EOG Resources, said on the earnings call last week.

"When we think about the growth forecasts that are out there and have been publicly discussed, we're probably a bit more on the lower end in general on the crude and condensate side. And the reason for that is I think you're seeing commitment from the North American E&P space to remain disciplined and then you couple that with some of the inflationary and supply chain pressures," Yacob added.

EOG Resources president and chief operating officer Billy Helms noted that there are a lot of headwinds for the U.S. shale patch to ramp up activity and grow production this year.

Equipment and labor constraints are some of those headwinds, Helms said on the call, giving as examples challenges in attracting workers for the drilling and frac stages and the fact that "most of the good equipment is already under employment today."

"And hopefully, the industry can strengthen and get better on a go-forward basis. But this year is going to be a challenging year from that side," said Helms.

Over the past weeks, other shale producers and oilfield services providers have flagged headwinds to this year's growth. For example, frac sand in the biggest shale play, the Permian, is in short supply, threatening to slow drilling programs at some producers and sending sand prices skyrocketing. This adds further cost pressure to American oil producers, who are already grappling with cost inflation in equipment and labor shortages.  

$100 oil could unleash a lot more U.S. oil production, in theory, but supply chain constraints and record-high sand prices are likely to temper growth, analysts say.

"There is no doubt, the much-anticipated multiyear upcycle is now underway," Jeff Miller, CEO at the biggest fracking services provider, Halliburton, said on the Q4 earnings call in January. But he also noted that "As activity accelerates, the market is seeing tightness related to trucking, labor, sand, and other inputs."

Biggest Independents Rein In Production Growth

Supply chain and cost inflation aside, the largest public independents in the U.S. shale patch are not racing to pump too much crude, even at $100 oil.

Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest oil producer in the Permian, will not open the taps and will stick to discipline even at $200 oil, says chief executive Scott Sheffield.  

"Whether it's $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we're not going to change our growth plans," Sheffield told Bloomberg Television in an interview last month.  

The capital discipline from the public independents in the U.S. shale patch doesn't bode well for U.S. gasoline prices and for President Biden's approval ratings. Yet, companies like Pioneer Natural Resources, Continental Resources, and Devon Energy are keeping discipline and plan to grow production by no more than 5 percent annually. Diamondback Energy is also part of that crowd.

"Diamondback's team and board believe that we have no reason to put growth before returns. Our shareholders, the owners of our company, agreed. And as a result, we will continue to be disciplined, keeping our oil production flat this year," chairman and CEO Travis Stice said on the earnings call last week.

Capex discipline from the largest shale firms and the supply chain bottlenecks for many producers will cap U.S. oil production growth, according to Pioneer's Sheffield. 

"Several other producers are having trouble getting frack crews, they're having trouble getting labor and they're having trouble getting sand; that's going to keep anybody from growing," he told Bloomberg in February. 

"Even if the government wants us to grow, I just don't think the industry can grow anyway," said Sheffield.