据天然气加工新闻网3月10日报道，美国能源情报署(EIA)预计，到2050年，美国天然气产量将继续增加。模型化的天然气产量增长很大程度上源于对美国天然气出口需求的上升，尤其是液化天然气(LNG)的需求。EIA预计，天然气出口将在21世纪30年代初继续上升，之后才会持平。
EIA预计，到2050年，美国天然气年产量将增长近25%。这种增长主要来自阿巴拉契亚盆地(东部地区)和密西西比-路易斯安那盐盆地(墨西哥湾地区)。然而，这一增长的一半以上来自石油地层的天然气生产，即伴生气。
伴生天然气产量增长最显著的是美国西南部二叠纪盆地的Wolfcamp地层。Wolfcamp和Haynesville地层靠近德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州美国海湾沿岸的液化天然气出口终端，促进了这些地区的产量增长。
阿巴拉契亚盆地的天然气也进入出口市场； 然而，EIA预计该地区的大部分新产品将流向国内市场，由于从阿巴拉契亚到出口终端的通道受到管道基础设施的限制。因此，该地区相对较低的生产成本是推动阿巴拉契亚地区天然气产量增长的主要因素。
2021年，美国天然气出口连续第七年创下新高，预计还将进一步增长。EIA预计，2033年之后，天然气出口将在预测期内保持相对平稳。大部分天然气出口增长来自LNG，但通过管道向墨西哥和加拿大出口的天然气也有所增加。
EIA预计，到2025年天然气出口的持续增长将受到目前在建设施的液化天然气产能增加的推动。路易斯安那州萨宾帕斯和卡尔克苏帕斯以及得克萨斯州金帕斯的其他液化天然气生产线现在预计将比预期更早投入使用，从而增加可用于将天然气转化为供出口的液化天然气的基础设施数量。最近完成的额外天然气管道基础设施也增加了进入墨西哥的量。
2025年后，EIA 预计美国天然气产量将增加，以满足不断增长的液化天然气出口需求。EIA预计全球对天然气的需求将继续保持高位，这使得在美国建造更多的液化天然气出口设施更加经济。这些液化天然气产能的扩大，加上国外对天然气需求的增加，将导致到2033年，液化天然气出口预计将达到5.86万亿立方英尺，比目前水平高出65%。
郝芬 译自 天然气加工新闻网
原文如下：
EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to rise as demand for exports grow
The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production will continue to increase through 2050. Much of the modeled growth in natural gas production results from rising demand for U.S. natural gas exports, especially for LNG. The EIA projects that natural gas exports will continue to rise through the early 2030s before leveling off.
The EIA projects that annual U.S. natural gas production will grow by almost 25% through 2050. Much of this growth comes from the Appalachia Basin (East region) and the Mississippi-Louisiana salt basins (Gulf Coast region). However, more than half of this growth comes from natural gas production in oil formations, known as associated gas.
The most significant increase in production of associated natural gas is in the Wolfcamp formation of the Permian Basin in the U.S. Southwest. The Wolfcamp and Haynesville formations’ proximity to LNG export terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana has facilitated production growth in these regions.
Natural gas from the Appalachia Basin also reaches export markets; however, the EIA projects that the majority of new production from this region will be directed toward domestic markets because access from Appalachia to export terminals is constrained by pipeline infrastructure. As a result, the region’s relatively low production costs are predominately driving the growth in Appalachia’s natural gas production.
In 2021, U.S. natural gas exports set a record high for the seventh consecutive year and are projected to increase further. After 2033, the EIA projects natural gas exports will stay relatively flat for the remainder of the projection period. Most natural gas export growth comes from LNG, but exports of natural gas by pipelines to Mexico and Canada also increase.
The EIA projects that continued growth in natural gas exports through 2025 will be driven by increases in LNG capacity at facilities that are currently under construction. Additional LNG trains at Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana and at Golden Pass in Texas are now expected to enter service much earlier than anticipated, increasing the amount of infrastructure available for converting natural gas to LNG for export. Recent completions of additional natural gas pipeline infrastructure have also increased capacity into Mexico.
After 2025, the EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production will increase to meet growing LNG export demand. The EIA projects global demand for natural gas will continue to be high, making it more economical to build additional LNG export facilities in the U.S. These LNG capacity expansions, coupled with increasing demand for natural gas abroad, result in an increased forecast of LNG exports to 5.86 Tft3 by 2033, up 65% from current levels.
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