据美国钻井网站2022年3月9日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)发布的 3月短期能源展望(STEO)报告显示，EIA把今年布伦特原油现货平均价格预测每桶上调了22美元。
EIA目前预测，今年布伦特原油的平均现货价格将为每桶105.22美元，与2月份的STEO预测的今年布伦特原油的平均现货价格为每桶82.87美元相比，大幅上调了22.35美元。
EIA在最新的STEO报告中强调，2月份布伦特原油现货均价为每桶97美元，比1月份上涨了11美元。 EIA在3月STEO报告中指出，布伦特原油现货价格在3月的第一周里报收于每桶近124美元。
EIA警告称，这些事件发生的背景是低石油库存和持续上涨的油价压力，并补充称，自2020年年中以来，全球石油库存一直在稳步下降。 EIA强调，截至2月，经合组织的商业石油库存为26.4亿桶，这是自2014年年中以来的最低水平。
EIA在3月份的STEO报告中表示：“我们预计，3月份布伦特原油均价将达到每桶117美元，今年第二季度将为116美元，今年下半年将为102美元。”
EIA在STEO报告中补充道：“我们预计布伦特原油平均油价将在2023年跌至每桶89美元。 然而，这一价格预测具有很大的不确定性。
此外，其他产油国对当前油价的反应程度，以及宏观经济发展可能对全球石油需求的影响，都将是未来几个月油价形成的重要因素。
但它仍预计，从2022年第二季度到2023年底，全球石油库存将以平均每天50万桶的速度增加。 EIA强调，预计这将给原油价格带来下行压力。
EIA在3月份的STEO报告中表示：“然而，如果其他地区的石油生产中断超过我们的预测，那么原油价格将高于我们的预测。“
撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶130.09美元。 去年这个时候，布伦特原油的价格在每桶67美元左右。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
EIA Makes Huge 2022 Oil Price Forecast Adjustment
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2022 Brent spot average price forecast by more than $22 per barrel, the organization’s March Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) has revealed.
The EIA now projects that the average Brent spot price will be $105.22 per barrel this year, which marks a $22.35 difference compared to its February STEO, which forecasted that the Brent spot price would average $82.87 per barrel in 2022.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $97 per barrel in February, which the organization outlined was an $11 per barrel increase from January. The EIA noted in the March STEO that daily spot prices for Brent closed at almost $124 per barrel in the first week of March .
These events are occurring against a backdrop of low oil inventories and persistent upward oil price pressures, the EIA warned, adding that global oil inventories have fallen steadily since mid-2020. The EIA highlighted that commercial inventories in the OECD ended February at 2.64 billion barrels, which it said is the lowest level since mid-2014.
“We expect the Brent price will average $117 per barrel in March, $116 per barrel in 2Q22, and $102 per barrel in the second half of 2022,” the EIA stated in its March STEO.
“We expect the average price to fall to $89 per barrel in 2023. However, this price forecast is highly uncertain. any independent corporate actions affect oil production or the sale of oil in the global market,” the EIA added in the STEO.
“In addition, the degree to which other oil producers respond to current oil prices, as well as the effects macroeconomic developments might have on global oil demand, will be important for oil price formation in the coming months,” the EIA continued.
Although the EIA reduced oil production in its latest forecast, it still expects that global oil inventories will build at an average rate of 500,000 barrels per day from the second quarter of 2022 through the end of 2023. The organization highlighted that it expects this will put downward pressure on crude oil prices.
“However, if production disruptions - or elsewhere - are more than we forecast, resulting crude oil prices would be higher than our forecast,” the EIA said in its March STEO.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $130.09 per barrel. This time last year, Brent was trading at around $67 per barrel.
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