世界正面临严重柴油短缺

路透社记者约翰•坎普说：欧洲柴油库存量处于2008年以来的最低水平  

由于柴油产量仍需跟上需求，柴油价格预计将进一步上涨  

据美国油价网2022年3月15日报道，对于那些消费石油产品的人来说，原油短缺无疑是一个坏消息。 但就这些产品而言，柴油短缺可能比原油短缺更具破坏性。 路透社的露威娜•爱德华兹曾在二月初报道说，原油、天然气和煤炭的供应紧张已经开始蔓延到石油产品，尤其是中间馏分油，其中最热门的是柴油。

这种最大市场是货物运输的燃料，在疫情封锁期间，由于运输率下降，受到了严重打击。 然而，封锁结束后，随着经济开始从疫情最严重的阶段复苏，交通开始好转，柴油需求大幅上升。 然而，柴油产量仍远远跟不上需求量。 

路透社记者约翰•坎普本周报道称，欧洲的柴油库存量处于2008年以来的最低水平，比过去5年同期的平均水平低8%或3500万桶。  

在美国，情况更加严重。 那里的柴油库存量比疫情前的5年季节性平均水平低21%或3000万桶。 

在全球能源贸易中心新加坡，柴油库存量比疫情前的5年季节性平均水平低400万桶。 

坎普指出，更糟糕的是，在过去12个月里，美国、欧洲和新加坡的柴油库存总计减少了1.1亿桶，减少部分迄今尚未被替代。 

路透社上周报道，由于市场供应日益紧张，壳牌公司和英国石油公司两周内都没有在德国市场提供任何柴油燃料货物，原因是担心供应短缺。  

分析师说，“能源配给以及最终导致经济衰退的风险与日俱增——这是大多数政策制定者目前似乎忽视或没有把握的问题。”

《每日邮报》援引咨询公司Energy Aspects一位不愿透露姓名的发言人的话报道说：“如果大国石油在未来几周内不能重新进入市场，我们将面临在夏季前不得不定量供应原油和石油产品的真正风险。” 

摩根士丹利回想起2008年2月的情形，当时柴油价格达到每桶180美元，而原油价格徘徊在每桶140美元附近。 而且2008年也没有战争。

摩根士丹利分析师说，“重复的不是我们的基本情况，但值得注意的是，柴油价格一直密切跟踪2007年-2008年期间油价的走势。供应紧张总是会推高价格，在通胀持续高企、能源价格不断飙升的环境下，这不是什么好消息。”

在双重影响下，柴油似乎正在成为推动消费价格上涨的火种。 据路透社的坎普称，甚至柴油产量的增长也可能无济于事。 他在最近的一篇专栏文章中表示，这只会让柴油短缺转向原油短缺。  

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

The World Is Facing A Critical Diesel Shortage

• Kemp: diesel fuel stocks in Europe are at their lowest since 2008.

• A further rise in diesel prices is expected as production still has to catch up.

A crude oil shortage is invariably bad news for those that consume oil products. But when it comes to these products, a diesel shortage has the potential to be even more devastating than a crude shortage. Reuters' Rowena Edwards reported in early February that the supply tightness in crude oil, gas, and coal was beginning to spread to oil products, most notably middle distillates, the most popular among which is diesel fuel. 

The fuel, whose biggest market is freight transport, got hit severely during the pandemic lockdowns as transport rates declined. After the end of the lockdowns, however, as economies began to recover from the worst of the pandemic, transport picked up, and diesel fuel demand jumped. Yet production still has to catch up.

Reuters' John Kemp reported this week that diesel fuel stocks in Europe are at their lowest since 2008, and 8 percent—or 35 million barrels—lower than the five-year average for this time of the year.

In the United States, the situation is graver still. There, diesel fuel inventories are 21 percent lower than the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average, which translates into 30 million barrels.

In Singapore, a global energy trade hub, diesel fuel inventories are 4 million barrels below the seasonal five-year average from before the pandemic.  

What is perhaps worse, however, is that over the past 12 months, the combined diesel fuel inventories in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, have shed a combined 110 million barrels that have yet to be replaced, Kemp noted.

With the market increasingly tight, Shell and BP have shied away from offering any diesel fuel cargos on the German market for two weeks, Reuters reported last week, for fear of shortages.

"Risks of energy rationing and ultimately a recession are growing by the day - something most policymakers seem to be ignoring or not grasping right now.

'If oil is not integrated back into the market within the next few weeks, we are at a real risk of having to ration crude and products by the summer," the Daily Mail report quoted an unnamed spokesman for consultancy Energy Aspects as saying.

Back in February, Morgan Stanley recalled a situation in 2008, when diesel fuel prices reached $180 per barrel, while crude oil was flirting with $140. And there wasn't a war in 2008.

"A repeat of that is not our base case, but it is notable that diesel prices have been tracking the 2007-08 period closely in recent months," the bank's analysts said, as quoted by Reuters' Edwards, adding they expected crude to reach $100 per barrel in the second half of the year. Of course, both Brent and WTI reached that only days after this forecast was made.

A tight supply situation invariably pushes prices higher, which cannot be good news in an environment of persistently high inflation coupled with soaring energy prices that keep on feeding that inflation.

Diesel, it seems, is turning into more kindling for consumer prices. And even diesel fuel production growth may not help, according to Reuters' Kemp. It would only move the shortage from diesel fuel to crude, he said in his latest column.