据管道&天然气杂志网3月18日报道，周五美国天然气期货下跌逾2%，由于产量缓慢回升，而且预计未来两周的供暖需求将低于此前预期，这将使公用事业公司下周开始向储气库注入天然气——大约比平时提前一周。
美国天然气价格下跌之际，全球对天然气的需求使美国LNG出口接近历史高位，欧洲天然气价格是美国期货价格的7倍左右。
美国即月天然气期货下跌12.7美分，跌幅2.5%，收于每百万英国热单位4.863美元。周四，该合约以3月4日以来的最高价收盘。
在上周下跌约 6%之后，本周即月指数上涨了约 3%。
美国的天然气期货仍然不受全球价格的影响，因为美国拥有国内使用所需的所有燃料，而且该国出口更多液化天然气的能力受到产能限制的限制。
美国已经接近满负荷生产液化天然气。因此，无论全球天然气价格上涨多高，它都无法在短期内生产更多的超冷燃料。
根据数据提供商Refinitiv表示，随着更多油气井在今年早些时候冻结后恢复使用，美国本土48个州的日均天然气产量有望从2月份的925亿立方英尺上升到3月份的931亿立方英尺。而去年12月份为962亿立方英尺。
据Refinitiv预计，随着气温上升，包括出口在内的美国天然气日均需求将从本周的1097亿立方英尺降至下周的954亿立方英尺，然后在两周后天气再次变冷时升至983亿立方英尺。对下周的预测低于Refinitiv周四的展望。
3月迄今为止，流向美国LNG出口工厂的天然气数量已从2月的124.3亿立方英尺/天增至127.2亿立方英尺/天，而1月为124.4亿立方英尺/天。美国有能力每天将约127亿立方英尺天然气转化为液化天然气。
据贸易商表示，只要全球天然气价格远高于美国期货价格，美国液化天然气出口将保持在纪录水准附近，因全球公用事业公司争相购买天然气，以满足亚洲不断飙升的需求，并补充欧洲较低的库存。
根据Refinitiv的数据显示，西欧(比利时、法国、德国和荷兰)的天然气库存比过去五年(2017-2021年)同期的平均水平低约38%。相比之下，美国的库存比正常水平低17%。
欧洲天然气期货交易价格接近每百万英热单位34美元，亚洲为36美元，而美国为5美元左右。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下:
US Natgas Slides Over 2% On Rising Output, Mild Weather
U.S. natural gas futures slid more than 2% on Friday as output slowly returns and on forecasts for less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage next week — about a week earlier than usual.
That U.S. price decline came even as global demand for gas keeps U.S. LNG exports near record highs and European gas prices about seven times over U.S. futures.
U.S. front-month gas futures fell 12.7 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $4.863 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since March 4.
That put the front-month up about 3% for the week after it fell about 6% last week.
U.S. gas futures remain shielded from global prices because the United States has all the fuel it needs for domestic use, and the country's ability to export more LNG is limited by capacity constraints.
The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity. So, no matter how high global gas prices rise, it will not be able to produce much more of the supercooled fuel anytime soon.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.1 Bcfd in March from 92.5 Bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 Bcfd in December.
Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 109.7 Bcfd this week to 95.4 Bcfd next week as temperatures climb before rising to 98.3 Bcfd in two weeks when cooler weather returns. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 12.72 Bcfd so far in March from 12.43 Bcfd in February and a record 12.44 Bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.7 Bcfd of gas into LNG.
Traders said U.S. LNG exports would remain near record levels so long as global gas prices trade well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe.
Gas stockpiles in Western Europe (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) were about 38% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, according to Refinitiv. That compares with inventories about 17% below normal in the United States.
Gas futures traded near $34 per MMBtu in Europe and $36 in Asia, compared with around $5 in the United States.
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