据美国油价网2022年4月5日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司宣布，该公司日前大幅上调了本季度布伦特原油价格预测。
在本周提交给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中，惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司的分析师们表示，他们现在预计，今年布伦特原油的均价将达到每桶100美元，2023年为90美元。 这标志着该公司如今对2022年和2023年布伦特原油价格的预测每桶分别上涨了18美元和7美元。
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司分析师们在报告中表示，“正如我们预期的那样，制裁在很大程度上避开了石油和天然气贸易，但出口中断的程度似乎比我们之前预测的更大、更持久，这主要是因为西方主要石油公司在压力下进行了‘自我制裁’”。
“因此，我们本月下调了对出口大国石油产量的预测，这将影响全球供应。 我们现在预计，今年日产量将同比减少98.3万桶，而此前我们预测的日产量增幅为69.2万桶。 这在很大程度上抹去了我们预计今年将出现的全球贸易顺差，表明市场平衡趋紧，价格上行压力更持久。”
在报告中，惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司分析师们指出，经济前景的风险仍然“非常高”，但现在在上下波动之间的权重更均衡了。 分析师们概述称，在不确定性上升和消息快速流动的情况下，油价可能仍会“极度波动”。
分析师们在报告中表示：“此外，大幅而频繁的价格波动正在为交易创造具有挑战性的条件，对布伦特原油的未平仓头寸跌至7年来的最低水平。”
“目前投机性仓位显示市场存在高度不确定性，而流动性减弱只会在短期内加剧波动性。”分析师们补充称。
在3月1日每桶100.85美元、8日每桶127.98美元、16日每桶98.02美元、25日每桶120.65美元、4月1日每桶107.67美元的布伦特原油价格在最近几周内一直处于震荡状态。在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶108.38美元。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Makes Large Oil Price Revision
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has announced that it has made a large upward revision to its Brent crude price forecast this quarter.
In a new report sent to Rigzone this week, analysts at the company said they now expect prices to average $100 per barrel in 2022 and $90 per barrel in 2023. This marks an $18 rise from the company’s previous 2022 forecast and a $7 rise from its previous 2023 forecast.
“While sanctions have largely shied away from oil and gas trade, as we had anticipated, export disruptions look to be more substantial and more sustained than we had previously forecast, not least due to ‘self-sanctioning’ by major Western oil companies, under pressure to disengage from Moscow,” Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts stated in the report.
“As a result, we decreased our Russian oil production forecast this month, impacting global supply. We now expect output to contract by 983,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2022, compared to the 692,000 barrels per day of growth we had forecast previously. This has largely erased the global surplus we had expected to emerge this year, signaling a tighter market balance and more persistent upward price pressures,” the analysts added.
In the report, the analysts noted that risks to the outlook remain “extremely elevated” but are now more evenly weighted between the upside and down. The analysts outlined that prices are likely to remain “extremely volatile” amid elevated uncertainty and rapid news flow.
“Moreover, large and frequent price swings are creating challenging conditions in which to trade, with open interest in Brent slumping to its lowest levels in seven years,” the analysts stated in the report.
“Current speculative positioning points to a high degree of uncertainty in the market, while weaker liquidity will only exacerbate the volatility in the near term,” the analysts added.
Brent prices have oscillated in recent weeks, closing at $100.85 per barrel on March 1, $127.98 per barrel on March 8, $98.02 per barrel on March 16, $120.65 per barrel on March 25, and $107.67 per barrel on April 1. At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $108.38 per barrel.
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