据美国钻井网站2022年4月13日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司发布的一份新报告显示，该公司将今年亨利中心天然气期货价格预测上调至4.9美元/百万英热单位。
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司的分析师在报告中指出，他们上调了之前4美元/ 百万英热单位的预测，因为他们预计美国液化天然气（LNG）出口将继续强劲增长，而美国国内夏季制冷用电需求强劲。
展望未来，分析师在报告中预测，亨利中心明年的天然气期货平均价格将在4.5美元/百万英热单位，2024年在4.75美元/百万英热单位，2025年在4.85美元/百万英热单位，2026年在4.5美元/百万英热单位。 这一预测明显高于彭博共识的预测。 彭博共识预计，亨利中心天然气期货的平均价格今年为4.1美元/百万英热单位，2023年为3.9美元/百万英热单位，2024年为4美元/百万英热单位，2025年为3.9美元/百万英热单位，2026年为3.4美元/百万英热单位。
分析师说：“在更大范围内实施禁止煤炭、石油和天然气贸易的制裁措施的可能性，都对亨利中心的天然气期货价格有利，因为买家在可能的情况下急于取代进口。如果对欧洲能源贸易的持续影响出现，正如我们所预期的那样，美国液化天然气进口的增长势头将强劲，为未来几年新增产能提供了一个现成的目的地。”
“然而，由于欧洲买家仍致力于限制排放的气候目标，对页岩气产生的环境影响的担忧，可能会限制新建立的贸易关系的长期可行性。”分析师如是说。
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司报告出炉时，亨利中心的天然气现货价格为6.4美元/百万英热单位。
在4月12日发送给美国钻井网站的一份市场报告中，挪威雷斯塔能源公司高级分析师Vinicius Romano强调，亨利中心的天然气期货价格在4月12日上午达到了13年来的最高点，超过了6.7美元/百万英热单位，原因是美国北部和加拿大南部的大部分地区正在经历一个漫长的冬季。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Raises Henry Hub Price Forecast
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has raised its 2022 Henry Hub price forecast to $4.9 per MMBTU, a new report from the company has revealed.
Analysts at the company outlined in the report that they increased their previous forecast of $4 per MMBTU as they expect continued strong growth in U.S. LNG exports against strong domestic consumption for electricity for summer cooling.
Looking further ahead, the analysts forecasted in the report that the Henry Hub price would average $4.5 in 2023, $4.75 in 2024, $4.85 in 2025, and $4.5 in 2026. The projections were notably higher than the Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report. The Bloomberg Consensus sees the Henry Hub price averaging $4.1 this year, $3.9 in 2023, $4 in 2024, $3.9 in 2025, and $3.4 in 2026.
“The outbreak of Russia Ukraine war in late February 2022 is keeping energy markets on edge, with uncertainty on the scale of disruptions to energy trade remaining a key concern, keeping energy price volatility high,” the Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts stated in the report.
“The potential to implement sanctions banning coal, oil and natural gas trade on a wider scale are all bullish for Henry Hub prices as buyers rush to replace Russian imports where possible. If lasting impacts to energy trade to Europe emerge, as we expect, the upside for U.S. LNG imports is strong, adding a ready destination for new capacity additions in the coming years,” the analysts added in the report.
“However, concerns about environmental impacts linked to the shale derived natural gas, could limit the long-term viability of new-found trade relationships as European buyers remain committed to climate targets limiting emissions,” the analysts continued.
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research’s report was created when the Henry Hub spot price was $6.4.
In a market note sent to Rigzone on April 12, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Vinicius Romano highlighted that the Henry Hub price was at a 13-year high on Tuesday morning, topping $6.7MMBTU, “as large swathes of the northern U.S. and Southern Canada experience a prolonged winter”.
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