据今日石油网2022年4月14日报道，美国地质调查局曾在2000年估计，圭亚那-苏里南盆地的石油储量为136亿桶，天然气储量为32万亿立方英尺，但后来的发现和调查所做的最新估计远远超过了这些数字。 华盛顿卡内基国际和平基金会非洲项目高级研究员、主任扎伊纳布·乌斯曼博士说，基于此，圭亚那-苏里南盆地是全球21世纪发现的拥有最大碳氢化合物储量的盆地之一。
其中，圭亚那近海的发现占了最大的份额。根据乌斯曼博士的预测，到2025年前，圭亚那的石油财富可能导致其人均石油收入超过卡塔尔、科威特和挪威。当地商业发展中心(CLDB)最近发表的一份讨论文件概述了这一远景。
乌斯曼博士解释了她的预测，通过提供一幅圭亚那的石油产量在顶级产油国中所处位置的图片，奠定了这个基调。 她指出，2020年，圭亚那的平均油气日产量为7.43万桶油当量，使该国成为全球第57大石油生产国。
当圭亚那目前正在开发的项目进入全面生产阶段时，这位行业专家表示，到2025年前，圭亚那的石油日产量预计将达到75万桶。 重要的是，她说，这将推动圭亚那在全球排名上升到第24位，超过阿塞拜疆的70.04万桶/天。乌斯曼博士表示，根据财政体制的累进性、全球油价，以及随着企业继续石油勘探活动，圭亚那深水石油发现量可能持续增加，碳氢化合物将在出口收入和财政收入中占据不成比例的巨大份额。
乌斯曼博士在讨论文件中明确表示，据估计，2021年，来自初期项目的油气资金流已占到出口总额的56%，到2050年，政府收入预计为500亿-2000亿美元。 2018年，圭亚那政府总收入为14亿美元。由于圭亚那的非石油收入基数很小，因此碳氢化合物收入将使所有其他收入来源相形见绌，石油生产预计将在中期内成为圭亚那经济增长的推动力。只有78.6万人口的圭亚那将获得较高的人均石油收入。
换句话说，这位非洲经济政策、能源政策和新兴经济体方面的专家断言，圭亚那能够生产大量石油，并为本国每个公民赚取大量收入。乌斯曼博士说，目前圭亚那每年的石油产量相当于每个公民24桶左右。乌斯曼博士说，到2025年前，当石油日产量达到75万桶时，这可能相当于每年每个公民238桶，比目前十大产油国的所有国家都要高。
她说：“到2025年前，圭亚那的人均石油收入可能超过富裕的海湾合作委员会(GCC)国家，如卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、阿曼和阿联酋；欧洲的挪威； 以及非洲的加蓬和赤道几内亚。”
乌斯曼博士表示，“收入是否仍被隐藏，以及是否加剧了社会问题，取决于圭亚那的制衡机制。 但考虑到所有这些因素，她明确表示，圭亚那的巨额收入将对其经济、制度和社会产生决定性影响。”
李峻 编译自 今日石油网
原文如下：
Guyana’s oil earnings per capita by 2025 could exceed Qatar, Kuwait, and Norway- Expert
A United States Geological Survey estimated in the year 2000 that the Guyana-Suriname basin’s reserves stand at 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet of gas, but subsequent discoveries and surveys have taken updated estimates way beyond those numbers. On this basis, the basin represents one of the largest hydrocarbons finds of the 21st century, says Dr. Zainab Usman, a senior fellow, and director of the Africa Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C.
The discoveries made offshore Guyana account for the lion’s share. By Dr. Usman’s projections, Guyana’s oil wealth could result in oil earnings that are beyond what Qatar, Kuwait, and Norway earn on a per capita basis by 2025. This perspective was outlined in a recently published discussion paper by the Centre for Local Business Development (CLDB).
Expounding on her forecast, Dr. Usman set the tone by providing a picture of where Guyana’s oil production places it among top producers. She noted that in 2020, Guyana produced an average of 74,300 barrels of oil equivalent daily, placing the country as the 57th largest oil producer globally.
When current projects in development enter the production phase, the industry expert said daily output is projected to reach 750,000 b/d by 2025. importantly, she said this will propel Guyana to the 24th place globally, above Azerbaijan’s 700,400 b/d. Depending on the progressivity of the fiscal regime, global oil prices, and the high likelihood that the country’s deepwater oil discoveries could keep growing as companies continue oil exploration, the expert said hydrocarbons will represent a disproportionately large share of export earnings and fiscal revenues.
She articulated in her discussion paper that these oil and gas financial flows from initial projects are already estimated at 56% of total exports in 2021 with government revenue estimated at US$50-US$200 billion through to 2050. “To put it in perspective, Guyana’s total government revenues were US$1.4 billion in 2018. Hydrocarbon revenues will thereby dwarf all other sources of revenue given the size of Guyana’s small non-oil revenue base, and oil production is expected to be the driver of economic growth in the medium term. With a small population size of 786,000 people, Guyana will earn high oil rents per capita,” Dr. Usman articulated.
In other words, the expert in economic policy, energy policy, and emerging economies in Africa asserted that Guyana is positioned to produce a lot of oil and earn a lot of revenue for each of its citizens. Currently, Dr. Usman said the country produces the equivalent of roughly 24 barrels per citizen every year. When output gets to 750,000 b/d by 2025, Dr. Usman said this could be the equivalent of 238 barrels per citizen for the year, higher than all of the current top 10 producers.
She said, “Ballpark estimates suggest that Guyana’s oil earnings per capita by 2025 could exceed those of the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and UAE; Norway in Europe; as well as Gabon and Equatorial Guinea in Africa.”
Whether revenues remain hidden and aggravate problems depend on Guyana’s mechanisms for checks and balances, the expert stated. But taking all these factors into consideration, she said in no uncertain terms that Guyana’s large revenue windfall will have a decisive impact on its economy, institutions, and society.
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