石油巨头以收益回报投资而非投入生产将延长原油危机

据美国彭博新闻社2022年5月9日报道，石油巨头正在迅速取得历史性的巨额现金流，但这笔意外之财石油巨头并没有投资新的原油生产，以帮助取代生产大国的石油和天然气。 相反，石油巨头的高管们正在用这笔巨额现金奖励股东们，这将为未来几年全球能源市场更加紧张做好准备。

今年第一季度，西方5大石油公司共赚了366亿美元，相当于每天约4亿美元的剩余现金。这是有记录以来第二高的季度自由现金流，足以使与生产大国相关的数十亿美元减记沦为最近收益报告中的脚注。

石油繁荣通常会引发对更高产量的追逐，但这一次并非如此。这5大石油巨头都严格控制资本支出预算，并承诺在未来几年将保持这一纪律——尽管自2月爆发军事冲突以来，油价除5天外一直都报收在每桶100美元以上。随着井产量的逐年下降，以及大型项目需要5年或更长的时间才能投产，现在发生的任何扩张滞后都将推动新产量的可能性进一步推迟到来。

管理着3610亿美元资产的全球资产管理巨头Janus Henderson的首席能源分析师诺亚·巴雷特说：“在之前的高油价周期中，石油巨头会大量投资于长周期深水项目，这些项目在许多年内都不会有产量。”“这类项目现在已经不在石油巨头的考虑范围之内。”

简而言之，如果消费者急于寻找石油巨头来取代大国的产量，他们最好把目光投向别处。

美国彭博新闻社汇编的统计数据显示，在2013年原油价格每桶持续超过100美元时，石油巨头的总资本支出为1587亿美元，几乎是目前支出的两倍。这个石油巨头集团包括壳牌公司、道达尔能源公司、英国石油公司、埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司。

英国石油公司首席执行官伯纳德·鲁尼5月10日告诉分析师：“纪律是最重要的事。”这家总部位于伦敦的英国石油巨头没有改变其140亿至150亿美元的年度支出计划，尽管其部分业务的成本上涨了10%，但其中期指导预算却攀升至160亿美元的上限。  

壳牌公司日前公布了创纪录的利润，甚至超过了分析师的最高预期。在担任首席财务官后的第一份业绩报告中，辛尼德·戈尔曼一次又一次地重申，壳牌公司将把资产规模控制在230亿美元至270亿美元之间。 她表示：“我们的资本配置框架没有任何变化。” 

在经历了多年的低回报后，石油巨头选择奖励股东，而不是投资新项目。埃克森美孚公司、英国石油公司和道达尔能源公司增加了股票回购，而雪佛龙公司回购的股票数量已经达到创纪录水平。

石油巨头选择不增加支出的原因很明显。其中最主要的是气候问题和对未来石油需求方向的不确定性。过去两年，投资者、政界人士和气候活动人士多年来施加的压力达到了顶点，所有石油巨头都承诺到本世纪中叶实现某种形式的净零目标。英国石油公司和壳牌公司积极将自己定位于长期远离石油和天然气。它们都面临着提高回报率的更大压力。过去10年，由于成本井喷和价格低迷，回报率有所下降。

西班牙桑坦德银行分析师杰森·肯尼表示：“现在任何增加、支持或增加新的化石燃料项目的决定都可能在未来几年内带来风险。”他说，气候变化、电动汽车等技术的发展，以及政府排放政策的迅速变化，是目前决定是否向一个新项目投资数十亿美元的主要风险。

国际能源论坛日前在一份报告中写道，在这种背景下，2020年油气上游行业的投资下降了30%，而去年的支出为3410亿美元，比疫情前的水平低了23%。  

国际能源论坛秘书长Joseph McMonigle警告称：“石油和天然气开发领域连续两年出现大规模突然投资不足，将导致21世纪20年代后期价格上涨和市场动荡。”

这个信息并未得到全球消费者的认可。从巴基斯坦到巴黎，数十亿人正在遭受生活成本危机，这在很大程度上是由于能源价格高企。在美国，政府日前恳求石油公司将油价飙升带来的巨额利润再投资到更多的油气生产，以帮助缓解石油短缺。一些美国和欧洲政界人士呼吁对石油巨头利润征收暴利税，以减轻消费者的负担。

公平地说，这并不意味着石油巨头根本不投资增长。但肯尼表示，石油巨头将“只专注于那些低风险、高回报的资产”，如页岩或扩大现有业务附近的海上油气田。  

举例来说，埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司正在全球最大的页岩油产区美国二叠纪盆地大举投资增产，计划增长率分别为25%和15%。英国石油公司将增加对美国页岩的投资，但在年底前完成两个大型集输系统的建设之前，英国石油公司无法提高二叠纪盆地的产量。

然而，二叠纪盆地的产量增长将在很大程度上抵消美国石油巨头全球投资组合的下降，而不是增加总产量数。埃克森美孚公司第一季度日产量为370万桶，为上世纪90年代末合并以来的最低水平。 埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司计划今年在股票回购和股息分配上的支出，将超过他们在生产上的支出。

Janus Henderson的巴雷特表示：“长期以来，投资者和政界人士一直告诉石油行业，我们需要减少石油，高管们应记住这一点。”“如果世界需要每天增加100万桶石油来缓解油价，我不确定这100万桶石油将从哪里来。”

李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社

原文如下：

Big Oil spends on investors, not output, prolonging crude crunch

Big Oil is raking in historic amounts of cash, but the windfall isn’t being invested in new production to help displace oil and gas. Instead, executives are rewarding shareholders -- setting the world up for an even tighter energy market in the years ahead.

The West’s five biggest oil companies together earned $36.6 billion over and above their spending in the first quarter, or about $400 million in spare cash a day. It was the second-highest quarterly free cash flow on record and enough to relegate billions of dollars of Russia-related writedowns to mere footnotes in their recent earnings reports.

Oil booms typically spark a chase for higher production -- but not this time. All five supermajors have kept their capital expenditure budgets firmly in check and pledged that this discipline will hold in future years -- even as oil prices have closed above $100 a barrel on all but five days since February. With wells naturally declining in production every year and large projects taking half a decade or more to come online, any expansion lag happening now will push the possibility of new production even further into the future.

“In prior cycles of high oil prices, the majors would be investing heavily in long-cycle deepwater projects that wouldn’t see production for many years,” said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages $361 billion. “Those type of projects are just off the table right now.”

In short, if consumers are looking for Big Oil to replace production with any urgency, they better look elsewhere. 

The last time crude was consistently over $100 a barrel in 2013, Big Oil’s combined capital expenditure was $158.7 billion, almost double what the companies are currently spending, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The group includes Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE, BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. 

“Discipline is the order of the day,” BP Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney told analysts Tuesday. The London-based major isn’t budging on its $14 billion to $15 billion spending plans for the year, with its mid-term guidance creeping up to a maximum of $16 billion despite 10% cost inflation in some parts of its business.

Shell, which posted record profits that exceeded even the highest analyst estimate, was equally clear. In her first set of results as chief financial officer, Sinead Gorman repeated time and time again that Shell would keep within its $23 billion to $27 billion range. “Nothing has changed in terms of our capital allocation framework,” she said. 

Instead of spending on new projects, companies are opting to reward shareholders after years of poor returns. Exxon, BP and TotalEnergies increased share buybacks while Chevron is already repurchasing record amounts of stock. 

There are clear reasons why Big Oil is choosing not to spend more. Chief among them are climate concerns and uncertainty over the future direction of oil demand. Years of pressure from investors, politicians and climate activists came to a head in the past two years, when all the oil majors pledged some form of net zero target by mid-century. BP and Shell actively positioned themselves to move away from oil and gas over the long-term. All are under added pressure to improve returns that dwindled over the past decade due to cost blowouts and low prices. 

“Any decision to increase, support or add-in new fossil projects today could see returns risk within a few years,” said Banco Santander SA analyst Jason Kenney. Climate change, technology developments like electric cars and rapidly evolving government policy on emissions are major risks today when deciding whether to invest billions in a new project, he said.

Against that backdrop, investment in the upstream oil and gas sector slumped 30% in 2020, while last year’s spend of $341 billion was 23% below pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Forum wrote in a report. 

“Two years in a row of large and abrupt underinvestment in oil and gas development is a recipe for higher prices and volatility later this decade,” warned Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF.

That message has not gone down well with consumers around the globe. From Pakistan to Paris, billions of people are suffering a cost-of-living crisis fueled in large part by high energy costs. In the U.S., government has implored oil companies to reinvest profits from surging oil prices into more production to help ease the shortages. Some U.S. and European politicians have called for a windfall tax on companies’ profits to help ease the burden on consumers. 

To be fair, that doesn’t mean companies aren’t investing in growth at all. But they will “focus only on low risk, high return assets” such as shale or expanding offshore fields near existing operations, according to Kenney. 

Exxon and Chevron, for instance, are spending aggressively to grow production in the U.S.’s Permian Basin, the world largest shale oil region, with planned growth rates of 25% and 15%, respectively. BP is boosting investment in U.S. shale, but the company won’t be able to ramp up Permian production until it finishes building two large gathering systems at the end of the year.

However, most Permian growth will largely offset declines from elsewhere in the U.S. supermajors’ global portfolio, rather than adding to total barrels. Exxon’s first quarter production of 3.7 million barrels per day was the lowest since its merger with Mobil in the late 1990s. Together Exxon and Chevron plan to spend more on buybacks and dividends this year than they do on production. 

“For so long the industry has been told by investors and politicians we need less oil and executives remember that,” said Barrett of Janus Henderson. “If the world needs an extra million barrels a day to ease prices, I’m not sure where it will come from.”