随着看涨和看跌的观点相互碰撞，石油市场又经历了动荡的一周。
人们越来越担心，潜在的经济衰退可能会严重影响石油需求。
总体而言，市场似乎更担心经济衰退的可能性增加，而不是美国燃料库存降至多年低点。
据油价网5月21日消息，石油市场结束了又一个动荡不安的交易周，每天都在看涨和看跌之间来回波动，在涨跌幅每桶5美元的区间内上下波动。周二早些时候，这两个基准指数均触及八周高位，但随后在当天晚些时候回落，并在周三加入华尔街的抛售行情，这是由于投资者对可能出现的经济衰退再次感到担忧，因为顶级零售商在季度盈利报告中指出了成本飙升和供应链瓶颈。
在截至5月20日的一周内，石油市场参与者更多关注的是“衰退恐惧”头条新闻，而不是每周的美国石油状况报告。该报告显示，汽油库存再次下降，隐含的美国国内需求增加，尽管美国汽油价格创下历史新高，但随着进入夏季驾驶季节，美国需求只会进一步上升。
休斯敦Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andrew Lipow周四对路透社表示：“市场每小时都对各种不同的头条新闻做出反应，而石油市场每天的走势变得更加夸张。”当天早些时候，原油价格暴跌，美元走弱，油价随之上涨。
总体而言，市场似乎更担心经济衰退的可能性增加，而不是美国燃料库存在一年中的这个时候降至多年低位。投资者和投机者从石油中撤出，原油是一种风险较高的资产，因为对全球经济更明显放缓甚至衰退的担忧加剧并抑制了风险偏好。
然而，尽管市场关注的是更黯淡的经济前景，但它忽略了——至少在过去一周——美国燃料库存极低。
并不是说石油需求急剧飙升，而是指全球和美国的供应能力，目前比疫情前每天减少了几百万桶。自经济重新开放和人们重返旅行以来，需求上升，加上炼油能力下降和馏分油市场非常紧张，导致美国产品库存降至低于季节性平均水平和多年低点，东海岸报告的库存创历史新低。
EIA在5月18日的最新每周库存报告中表示，截至5月13日的一周，美国车用汽油总库存减少了480万桶，比同期的五年均值降低约8%。尽管美国各地的价格创历史新高，但按产品供应量衡量，汽油需求仍在增长。
美国的汽油库存处于2014年以来的最低水平，东海岸的库存更加紧张，处于2011年以来的最低水平。
ING策略师Warren Patterson和Wenyu Yao周四写道：“虽然炼油厂仍有一些增加运行的空间（本周利用率增加1.8个百分点至91.8%），但随着我们进入驾驶季节，汽油需求应该会增加，这表明我们将看到美国汽油市场进一步紧缩。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到美国政府面临进一步压力，试图控制汽油价格。”
SEB大宗商品首席分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示：“随着2020/2021年度产能减少、石油产品需求复苏，全球炼油系统严重紧张。我们现在正进入夏季驾驶季节，汽油需求大幅增加，一开始库存就非常低。”
Saxo银行周四表示，对经济增长以及燃料需求的担忧尚未反映在实际数据中。
“然而，在公众消费市场上，这种担忧尚未反映出来，原油和汽油库存仍在下降，而美国隐含的汽油需求，尽管价格创历史新高，但仍然强劲。”
Saxo银行的战略团队指出，“市场可能会关注目前面临挑战的风险偏好的总体水平”。
祝精燕 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil Market Fears Recession More Than Tight Fuel Inventories
The oil market saw another volatile week as bullish and bearish catalysts collided.
There is a growing fear that a potential recession could weigh heavily on oil demand.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year lows.
The oil market wrapped up another volatile week of hectic trading, swinging up and down in a $5 a barrel range as it was pulled between bullish and bearish catalysts in both directions every day. Both benchmarks hit an eight-week high early on Tuesday, only to pull back later in the day and join on Wednesday the sell-off on Wall Street triggered by renewed investor concerns about a possible recession as top retailers flagged soaring costs and supply chain bottlenecks in their quarterly earnings reports.
In the week to May 20, oil market participants paid more attention to “recession fear” headlines than to the weekly U.S. petroleum status report, which showed another draw in gasoline inventories and higher implied domestic demand, which—despite record-high gasoline prices in America—is only set to rise further as we enter the summer driving season.
“The market is reacting to all sorts of different headlines hour to hour, and the movement in oil markets on a day-by-day basis getting even more exaggerated,” Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, told Reuters on Thursday, when oil settled higher after the U.S. dollar weakened, following a plunge in crude prices in earlier trading on the same day.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year low levels for this time of the year. Investors and speculators pulled back from oil, with crude being a riskier asset, as concerns about a more pronounced global economic slowdown—and even a recession—intensified and dampened risk appetite.
However, while the market is focused on gloomier economic outlooks, it has ignored—at least this past week—the critically low U.S. fuel inventories.
Not that oil demand has soared so much. It’s the capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic. Rising demand since economies reopened and people returned to travel, combined with lower refining capacity and very tight distillate markets have drawn down U.S. product inventories to below seasonal averages and at multi-year lows, with record-low inventories reported on the East Coast.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels in the week ending May 13, and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report on May 18. Implied gasoline demand, measured as products supplied, rose, despite record-high prices across the United States.
Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are at their lowest levels for this time of the year since 2014, with stocks on the East Coast even tighter, at their lowest since 2011 for this time of the year.
“While refiners have some room to increase runs (utilization rates increased by 1.8 percentage points to 91.8% over the week), gasoline demand should increase as we move into driving season, which suggests that we will see further tightness in the US gasoline market. In this case, we are likely to see further pressure on the US administration to try rein in gasoline prices,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao wrote on Thursday.
According to Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst, Commodities, at SEB:
“The global refining system is severely stretched following reductions in capacities in 2020/21, reviving oil product demand. We are now heading into summer driving season with much higher gasoline demand with a start-out of very low inventories.”
Concerns about economic growth, and consequently, demand for fuels, are yet to be reflected in actual data, Saxo Bank said on Thursday.
“On the ground, however, this worry has yet to be reflected with inventories of crude oil and gasoline still falling while US implied gasoline demand, despite record prices, remains robust.”
“Until then, the market is likely to focus on the general level of risk appetite, which is currently challenged,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team noted.
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