据美国钻井网站2022年5月24日报道，由于欧佩克+备用产能已经下降到2020年4月以来的最低水平，欧洲、北美洲和亚洲的经合组织成员国的原油库存下降到了危险的低点。
这是根据周一美国银行（BofA）发给美国钻井网站的一份新的全球研究报告得出的结论。 报告还强调，“由于市场进入美国驾驶旺季”，中间馏分油和汽油的成品油库存已降至“危险水平”。
美银全球研究报告称：“因此，精炼原油裂解利润率最近飙升至创纪录水平，这加剧了整个石油行业的波动。”
报告补充说：“最令人担忧的是，经合组织成员国拥有的战略石油储备已经很低，未来还将大幅下降，令消费者面临未来任何负面供应冲击。”
美银全球研究报告对其油价预测提出了风险警告，但也强调了低库存水平在推高油价方面的作用。
报告说：“随着货币政策紧缩和经济衰退，全球石油消费的低迷是我们预计布伦特原油2022年和2023年的平均每桶102美元的风险，并补充说，更多石油出口到西方国家以外的国家是另一个值得关注的风险。”
报告补充说，然而，低库存水平、有限的备用产能，以及新兴市场疫情后的需求复苏，应会在未来几个月推动布伦特原油价格突破每桶120美元。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的价格为每桶112.29美元。今年3月7日(123.21美元/桶)、8日(127.98美元/桶)、25日(12.65美元/桶)等北海产布伦特原油的价格多次突破了120美元/桶。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Oil Inventories Down to Dangerously Low Point
Crude oil inventories are down to a dangerously low point across Europe, North America, and OECD Asia just as OPEC+ spare production capacity has dwindled to the lowest levels since April 2020.
That’s according to a new BofA Global Research report, which was sent to Rigzone on Monday. The report also highlighted that petroleum product inventories have fallen to “precarious levels” for middle distillates and gasoline “as the market heads into the peak of the U.S. driving season”.
“As a result, refined petroleum cracks have recently spiked to record levels, contributing to boost volatility across the oil complex,” the BofA Global Research report stated.
“Most worryingly, strategic oil barrels held by OECD governments are already low and set to decline steeply going forward, leaving consumers exposed to any future negative supply shock,” the report added.
The BofA Global Research report warned of risks to BofA Global Research’s oil price forecasts, but also highlighted the role of low inventory levels in pushing prices higher.
“With monetary policy tightening and recession, a downturn in global oil consumption is a risk to our projected Brent average of $102 per barrel for 2022 and 2023,” the report stated, adding that higher petroleum exports to countries outside the West is another risk to watch.
“However, low inventory levels, limited spare capacity, and a post pandemic demand recovery in EMs should combine to press Brent above $120 per barrel over the coming months,” the report added.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $112.29 per barrel. Brent has closed above $120 per barrel on several occasions this year, including on March 7 ($123.21 per barrel), March 8 ($127.98 per barrel), and March 25 ($12.65 per barrel).
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