非洲增加上游活动来扩大油气产量

据世界石油网2022年6月2日报道，由于遗留项目产量下降，非洲油气生产国正在增加数轮油气许可证出售招标，以稳定未来几年的油气供应，满足日益增长的能源需求。  

在非洲各地引入更多回合的石油和天然气勘探和生产许可证出售招标，将使非洲大陆有新的重大发现，增加碳氢化合物的产量，并充分利用非洲大陆的大量能源资源，以解决能源贫困和加速经济增长。 

尽管非洲过去20年里石油和天然气的产量不断上升，但由于遗留项目的产量减少，加上近几年来缺乏新的勘探活动，以及尼日利亚、阿尔及利亚、安哥拉和埃及等主要油气生产国的价值链投资不足，非洲油气产量在今后几年里预计将出现下降。在天然气方面，尽管由于包括莫桑比克Coral浮式液化天然气项目和尼日利亚第7条LNG生产线项目在内的新项目即将投产，但非洲有足够的LNG供应来满足全球2022年-2023年的需求，但阿尔及利亚、尼日利亚和埃及的LNG产量下降从2025年起将绷紧全球LNG供应链。 

例如，埃及的天然气产量预计将从2022年的740亿立方米减少到2030年的500亿立方米，除非有重大发现并迅速投产。另一方面，非洲石油行业的产量也将下降，非洲主要产油国之一阿尔及利亚已经开始记录减产。非洲最大的原油生产国尼日利亚也将从2023年开始减产，同时苏丹、南苏丹和其他西非国家的石油产量也将受到影响。

为了减缓这种产量下降，非洲大陆将不得不增加对上游领域的投资。许多非洲国家认识到扩大上游活动的必要性，在新兴和前沿市场都引入了多轮油气勘探许可证出售招标，为区域和国际公司参与高潜力盆地的油气勘探活动创造了机会。  

值得注意的是，突尼斯能源部去年推出的新一轮许可证出售招标预计将在今年年内授出4份石油勘探许可证。此外，安哥拉还通过国家石油、天然气和生物燃料局(ANPG)在2021年对纳米贝盆地的第11、12、13、27、28、29、41、42和43号区块以及本格拉盆地的第10号区块进行招标。 

此外，非洲大陆预计将在今年宣布大约14轮勘探许可正出售招标的结果，表明非洲油气生产国越来越重视增加上游领域的活动。其他计划在2022年和2023年推出油气勘探许可证出售招标的国家包括科特迪瓦、塞内加尔、阿尔及利亚、刚果（金）、苏丹、南苏丹、索马里、乌干达和肯尼亚。

李峻 编译自 美国油气网

原文如下：

Africa boosts upstream activities to amplify oil and gas production

African hydrocarbon producing countries are increasing oil and gas licensing rounds to be able to stabilize supply of hydrocarbons in years to come to meet growing energy demand as output in legacy projects declines.

The introduction of more oil and gas exploration and production licensing rounds across Africa will enable the continent to make new and significant discoveries, increase the production of hydrocarbons, as well as fully utilize the continent’s vast array of energy resources to address energy poverty and accelerate economic growth.

Although the production of oil and gas in Africa has been rising over the past two decades, declines are anticipated in the coming years due to output reductions in legacy projects, a lack of new exploration in recent years and inadequate investments across the value chain in leading hydrocarbon producing countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, Angola and Egypt. On the gas front, despite Africa having sufficient supply to meet 2022 – 2023 demand owing to new projects such as the Mozambique Coral Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Nigeria’s LNG Train 7 projects coming online, production declines in Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt will strain the supply chain from 2025 onwards. 

Egypt, for example, is expected to record a decrease in production from 74 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2022 to 50 Bcm by 2030 unless major discoveries are made and quickly brought online. On the other hand, the oil sector will also witness production declines with Algeria, one of Africa’s leading oil producers, already starting to record output reductions. Nigeria, the biggest producer of crude oil in Africa, will also record a decline from 2023 whilst production in Sudan and South Sudan and other west African countries will also be affected. 

In order for Africa to mitigate these declines, the continent will have to boost investments within the upstream sector. Recognizing the need to expand upstream activities, many countries across the continent have introduced bid licensing rounds across both emerging and frontier markets, creating the opportunity for regional and international companies to participate in high potential basins. 

Notably, a 2021 licensing round introduced by the Tunisian Ministry of Energy Ministry in which contracts are expected to be awarded in 2022 for four oil exploration licenses. Additionally, Angola, through the National Agency of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG) also opened bidding in 2021 for tenders in Blocks 11, 12, 13, 27, 28, 29, 41, 42 and 43 in the Namibe Basin, and in Block 10 in the Benguela Basin. 

In addition, the results of some 14 exploration licensing rounds expected to be announced in 2022 across the continent are a testimony of increased focus by African hydrocarbon producing countries to increase activities within the upstream sector. Other licensing rounds planned to be introduced in 2022 and 2023 include those in Ivory Coast, Senegal, Algeria, Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Uganda and Kenya.