惠誉：欧佩克+将在8月份取消所有产量限制

据美国钻井网站6月9日报道，根据惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究公司本周发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告，欧佩克+将在8月份取消所有的产量限制。  

惠誉解决方案在报告中指出，根据已公布的指导意见，欧佩克+加速7月份减产的举措将在8月份重复。惠誉解决方案在报告中指出，这将在8月份取消所有产量限制，比欧佩克+最初制定的恢复全面生产的战略提前一个月。

惠誉解决方案在报告中指出：“产量目标高于早期指导是欧佩克对建筑市场供应短缺的认识，而这一点此前并未得到承认。”

惠誉解决方案补充称：“由于欧佩克+称油价上涨和其他通胀压力一起对全球经济稳定构成了日益上升的风险，因此，这个加速缩减还表明，欧佩克+在8月份之后可能会改变近期产量，以帮助平衡市场。”

惠誉解决方案继续表示：“如果欧佩克+不采取行动，未来几个月油价可能会高于当前水平，亚洲放松封锁和北半球夏季驾车增加是关键的担忧。”

报告称，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特和阿尔及利亚是最有可能从提前减产中获益的国家。报告补充称，尼日利亚和安哥拉不太可能从加速减产中获益。

欧佩克+6月早些时候透露，该组织再次确认其决定，将7月份的月总产量提高43.2万桶/天。此外，欧佩克+还表示，该组织提前了9月份的总体产量调整计划，并在7月和8月平均分配了43.2万桶/天的产量。欧佩克+强调，这将推动7月份石油日产量增加64.8万桶。

欧佩克+的下一次会议目前定于6月30日举行。惠誉解决方案指出，下次会议应该会透露更多关于该组织增加原油产量和出口的近期战略。

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

OPEC+ Set to Remove All Production Curbs in August

OPEC+ is set to remove all production curbs in August, a new report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research sent to Rigzone this week has outlined.

In the report, Fitch Solutions noted that the move from OPEC+ to accelerate production cuts for July will be repeated in August, based on published guidance. This would remove all production curbs in August, one month earlier than initially outlined in the group’s strategy to return to full production, Fitch Solutions pointed out in the report.

“The increase in production targets above early guidance is a recognition from OPEC+ of a building market shortfall in supply that had previously not been acknowledged,” Fitch Solutions stated in the report.

“The accelerated tapering also signals a potential change in near-term OPEC production after August to help balance the markets as the group cites elevated oil prices as a rising risk to global economic stability along with other inflationary pressures,” Fitch Solutions added.

“The easing of lockdowns in China and ramp-up in summer driving in the northern hemisphere are key concerns that prices could rise higher than current levels in coming months without OPEC action,” Fitch Solutions continued.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Algeria are the most likely candidates to take advantage of the early reduction in production cuts, according to the report, which added that Nigeria and Angola are unlikely to see any benefit from the accelerated tapering.

The OPEC+ group reconfirmed its decision to adjust its monthly overall production up by 0.432 million barrels per day for the month of July, OPEC revealed earlier this month. In addition, OPEC outlined that OPEC+ advanced its planned overall production adjustment for the month of September and redistributed the 0.432 million barrels per day equally over July and August. This will push July production up by 0.648 million barrels per day, OPEC highlighted.

OPEC+’s next meeting is currently scheduled for June 30. Fitch Solutions noted that this meeting should reveal more about the group’s near-term strategy for increasing crude production and exports.