石油巨头正排队迎接南美洲下一个石油大繁荣

圭亚那-苏里南石油盆地可能拥有比预期大得多的储量

苏里南寻求在2030年前复制圭亚那的石油繁荣

盈亏平衡低估价以及轻质至中质含硫原油的发现使苏里南成为对石油巨头们有吸引力的地区

据美国油价网6月6日报道，圭亚那-苏里南盆地已经成为世界上最热门的海上石油远景区，全球能源结构在爆发军事冲突以后发生巨大变化，加勒比地区正在成为世界石油市场的重要参与者。在埃克森美孚公司在圭亚那海上斯塔布鲁克区块获得32个发现以后，这个极度贫困的小国在短短7年时间里已经成为全球领先的钻井目的地。美国地质调查局曾在2001年5月的一份简报中预测，圭亚那-苏里南盆地的未发现石油资源在28亿至326亿桶之间，但有迹象表明，这个数字要大得多。

据估计，仅在斯塔布鲁克区块，埃克森美孚公司就发现了近110亿桶可采石油资源。此外，法国道达尔能源公司和美国阿帕奇公司在位于苏里南海上的第58号区块内获得了5个重要油气发现，估计可采石油资源量达到65亿桶。在苏里南海上还获得了更多的石油发现。2020年12月，马来西亚国家石油公司与合作伙伴埃克森美孚公司在苏里南海上第52号区块中首次获得了有前景的石油发现。苏里南正试图复制邻国圭亚那的石油繁荣，圭亚那的石油繁荣极大地促进了这个极度贫困的前英国殖民地国家的经济。2020年，尽管发生疫情，圭亚那的国内生产总值增长了43.5%，2021年又增长了20%，令人印象深刻。 

为了获得更多的国际投资并促进苏里南海上的油气勘探活动，苏里南政府通过苏里南国家石油公司和行业监管机构Staatsolie在去年完成了浅水区块的拍卖。苏里南石油行业监管机构在年底前授出了3个区块。作为运营商的道达尔能源公司与合作伙伴卡塔尔石油公司签署了第6和第8号浅水区块的油气勘探合同，分别拥有49%和20%的权益，剩余权益由Staatsolie持有。美国能源巨头雪佛龙公司也参与了此次拍卖，获得了第5号浅水区块的60%权益，Staatsolie持有40%的权益。去年12月，雪佛龙公司向荷兰皇家壳牌公司出售了第5号区块的20%权益。随后在今年4月，Staatsolie与雪佛龙公司签署了一份第7号浅水区块的产量分成协议，80%的权益给了美国能源巨头，同时保留了20%的权益。雪佛龙公司还持有第42号深水区块33.3%的权益，该区块与第58号区块和圭亚那附近的坎赫区块相邻。这些浅水区块尚未勘探过，被认为具有相当大的石油潜力，分析师们推测这些浅水区块位于贯穿第58号区块的同一条油道上。

为了吸引更多的投资，并促进苏里南海上的油气勘探活动，Staatsolie在今年5月宣布，该公司打算在今年年底拍卖更多的深水区块，然后在2023年进行另一轮浅水区块拍卖招标。虽然苏里南的石油区块拍卖在过去没有获得石油巨头的足够兴趣，但由于道达尔能源公司和拥有50%权益的合作伙伴阿帕奇公司在第58号海上区块中的成功，这种情况可能会改变。今年早些时候，运营商道达尔能源公司宣布在Krabdagu-1井中获得了该区块的第5个重大石油发现。虽然尚未做出最终投资决定，但道达尔能源公司认为，第58号区块有足够的可采油气资源，可以进一步开发和提高生产价值。道达尔能源公司和阿帕奇公司预计将在今年年底前就第58号区块做出最终投资决定，预计在2025年底前生产出第一桶原油。

盈亏平衡低估价，以及在苏里南发现的轻质至中质含硫原油，让这个国家成为外国能源公司的一个引人注目的勘探热点，就像邻国圭亚那一样。多个行业分析师估计，苏里南海上平均保本价格将在每桶40美元，只比圭亚那的平均保本价格每桶35美元略高。重要的是，迄今为止发现的原油的API度在34-43之间，而且含硫量很低。埃克森美孚公司从位于圭亚那海上斯塔布鲁克区块丽莎大油田生产的原油的API度为32，总硫量为0.58%，钒含量为23.5ppm。据预测，苏里南沿海地区的原油具有类似的特征，因此轻质、低硫，这意味着它比附近的南美国家生产的原油更便宜、更容易提炼。

全球石油储量第一的国家、哥伦比亚和厄瓜多尔通常开采出的原油是含硫量高、金属和其他污染物含量高的重质原油品种。全球石油储量第一国家的主打产品马瑞混合原油的API度为16，含硫2.45%，钒含量为262ppm，这表明这种原油比重大，而且含硫量高。哥伦比亚主要原油Castilla原油的API度为18.8，含硫1.97%，含钒319.95ppm，这也表明这种原油比重大，而且含硫量高。厄瓜多尔主要的石油等级为东方原油，约占该国石油出口的三分之二，API度为23，硫含量为1.4%，钒含量为65ppm。这些特性使得这些原油等级提炼成低含硫量的高级燃料更加困难和昂贵。这也意味着，与圭亚那-苏里南盆地的轻质低硫原油相比，它们在生产和提炼过程中会产生更多的碳排放。

这些特点使得这些石油品种在全球经济中不那么受欢迎，因为全球经济正在脱碳，石油公司面临着越来越大的减少碳足迹的压力。正是出于这些原因，石油巨头道达尔能源公司和挪威能源巨头Equinor分别选择退出其在全球石油储量第一的国家在奥里诺科河带重油项目中30%和10%的非运营少数股权。该国国家石油公司成为这个资产的唯一所有者，该资产是一个高碳密集作业，生产的沥青像超重原油一样必须在出口前进行升级。这些因素也影响了对哥伦比亚和厄瓜多尔在经济上至关重要的石油行业的投资，这两个国家时下正在努力恢复到疫情前的运作状态。  

因此，圭亚那和苏里南这两个南美小国正在掀起新一波大规模的海上石油热潮，引起了全球能源巨头的极大关注。这两个国家都证明自己是政治相对稳定的地区，尤其是与全球石油储量第一的国家等许多欧佩克成员国相比，这一点得到了加强。这些发展引发了南美洲的地缘政治转型，圭亚那和苏里南成为全球能源公司和寻求高质量低碳强度原油进口的国家越来越重要的地区。苏里南新兴地区的外国投资正在稳步增长。这个国家的Tambaredjo油田目前的原油日产量约为1.65万桶，预计到2030年前，苏里南第58号和第52号区块的原油日产量将达到65万桶。这将给苏里南陷入困境的经济带来健康的提振，苏里南届时有望成为南美洲第4大产油国。

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下： the world's largest oil reserves country

Oil Majors Are Lining Up For The Next Great South American Oil Boom

The Guyana-Suriname oil basin may hold much larger reserves than anticipated.

Suriname is looking to replicate Guyana’s oil boom through 2030.

Low projected breakeven prices and discoveries of light to medium sulfur crude makes Suriname an attractive location for oil majors.

The Guyana-Suriname Basin has emerged as the world’s hottest offshore oil play and with the changes occurring to the global energy mix after the war, the Caribbean is becoming an important player in world oil markets. In the space of a mere 7 years, the micro-state of Guyana has emerged as a leading global drilling destination after ExxonMobil made 32 discoveries in the offshore Stabroek Block. While the U.S. Geological Survey predicted in a May 2001 fact sheet that the Guyana-Suriname Basin held somewhere between 2.8 billion and 32.6 billion barrels of undiscovered oil resources, there are signs the volume is far greater.

Exxon’s discoveries in the Stabroek Block alone are estimated to be nearly 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources. Then there are TotalEnergies and Apache’s five major hydrocarbon discoveries in offshore Surname Block 58 which is estimated to hold up to 6.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources. Additional petroleum discoveries have been made in offshore Suriname. In December 2020 Malaysia’s national oil company Petronas, with partner Exxon, made their first promising oil discovery in offshore Suriname Block 52. Suriname is seeking to replicate the epic oil boom being enjoyed by neighboring Guyana which has significantly boosted the economy. In 2020 Guyana’s gross domestic product expanded by a whopping 43.5%, despite the pandemic, and by another impressive 20% in 2021.

To garner further international investment and promote exploration in offshore Suriname the national government in Paramaribo through the national oil company and industry regulator Staatsolie completed a shallow water auction in 2021. That saw Suriname’s petroleum industry regulator award three blocks toward the end of that year. TotalEnergies, which will be the operator, and partner Qatar Petroleum are inking contracts for shallow water Blocks 6 and 8 with a 49% and 20% interest respectively, while the remaining 40% is held by Staatsolie. U.S. energy supermajor Chevron, which also participated in the auction, was awarded a 60% holding in shallow water Block 5 with 40% remaining in the hands of Suriname’s national oil company. In December 2021 Chevron sold a 20% interest in Block 5 to Royal Dutch Shell. Then in April 2022, Staatsolie signed a production sharing agreement with Chevron for shallow water Block 7 awarding 80% to the U.S. energy supermajor while retaining a 20% interest. Chevron also holds a 33.3% interest in deep water Block 42 which is adjacent to Block 58 and the Canje Block in neighboring offshore Guyana. Those shallow water blocks have not been explored and are thought to possess considerable oil potential with analysts speculating that they sit on the same oil fairway that runs through Block 58.

To attract further investment and bolster exploration in offshore Suriname Staatsolie announced in May 2022 that it intends to auction further deep-water blocks at the end of the year and then conduct another shallow water bid round in 2023. While Suriname’s oil auctions have failed to garner considerable interest in the past that is likely to change because of the success enjoyed by TotalEnergies and 50% partner Apache in offshore Block 58. Earlier this year TotalEnergies, which is the operator, announced a fifth significant oil discovery in the block at the Krabdagu-1 well. While the energy companies have yet to make a final investment decision TotalEnergies believes there are sufficient recoverable hydrocarbon resources in Block 58 to justify further development and make production worthwhile. It is anticipated that TotalEnergies and Apache will make a final investment decision regarding Block 58 before the end of 2022, with first oil expected before the end of 2025.

Low projected breakeven prices and discoveries of light to medium sulfur content crude oil in Suriname make the impoverished former Dutch colony, like neighboring Guyana, a compelling jurisdiction for foreign energy companies. Various industry analysts estimate that offshore Suriname will have an average breakeven price of $40 per barrel, which is only slightly higher than Guyana’s which is pegged at an average of around $35 a barrel. importantly, the oil discovered to date has had an API gravity ranging between 34 degrees and 43 degrees as well as low sulfur content. The crude oil being pumped by Exxon from the Liza field in neighboring offshore Guyana’s Stabroek Block has an API gravity of 32 degrees with total sulfur of 0.58% and 23.5 parts per million of vanadium. It is anticipated that offshore Suriname holds crude oil with similar characteristics making it light and sweet, which means it is cheaper and easier to refine than the crude oil produced by nearby South American countries. 

The world's largest oil reserves country

, Colombia, and Ecuador typically pump heavier crude oil varieties that have high sulfur contents as well as elevated levels of metals and other pollutants. The world's largest oil reserves country’s flagship Merey blend has an API gravity of 16 degrees, 2.45% sulfur, and 262 parts per million of vanadium, demonstrating that is heavy and especially sour. Colombia’s primary crude oil variety Castilla has an API gravity of 18.8 degrees, 1.97% sulfur, and vanadium content of 319.95 ppm, indicating that is it heavy and sour. Ecuador’s key petroleum grade Oriente, which accounts for around two-thirds of the Andean country’s oil exports, has an API gravity of 23 degrees, sulfur content of 1.4%, and vanadium of 65 ppm. Those characteristics make those crude oil grades more difficult and costly to refine into low sulfur content high-grade fuels. It also means they are more carbon intensive to produce and refine compared to the lighter sweeter crude oil grades that exist in the Guyana Suriname Basin. 

Those characteristics make those petroleum varieties less popular in a global economy that is being decarbonized and where oil companies are under increasing pressure to reduce their carbon footprints. It was for those reasons that oil supermajors TotalEnergies and Equinor chose to exit their non-operated minority stakes of 30% and 10% respectively in the world's largest oil reserves country

’s heavy oil project in the Orinoco belt. That saw its national oil company PDVSA become the sole owner of the asset which is a highly carbon intensive operation where the bitumen like extra-heavy crude produced must be upgraded before being exported. Those factors are also weighing on investment in Colombia and Ecuador’s economically crucial oil industries, which are struggling to recover to pre-pandemic operations.

As a result, a massive offshore oil boom is building in Guyana and Suriname with the two South American microstates garnering considerable attention from global energy supermajors. This is enhanced by both countries proving themselves to be relatively stable jurisdictions, especially when compared to many members of the OPEC cartel, like the world's largest oil reserves country

. Those developments have triggered a geopolitical transition in South America with Guyana and Suriname becoming increasingly important jurisdictions for global energy companies and countries seeking high-quality low carbon intensity crude oil imports. Foreign investment in Suriname’s nascent is growing at a steady clip. The country, which is currently pumping around 16,500 barrels daily from the Tambaredjo field, is expected to be producing 650,000 barrels per day from Blocks 58 and 52 by 2030. That will give Suriname’s struggling economy a healthy boost and see the country potentially become South America’s fourth largest oil producer.