巴西考虑使用更多生物柴油避免燃料短缺

据能源网圣保罗报道，巴西政府时下正在考虑在今年晚些时候增加混合在卡车燃料中的生物柴油的用量，以避免燃料短缺。

据直接知情人士透露，如果今年下半年柴油库存保持在较低水平，这个拉美最大经济体的生物柴油混合比例可能会从10%提高到15%。由于讨论尚未公开，知情人士要求不具名采访。其中一位知情人士说，此次在卡车燃料中增加生物柴油比例将在有限的时间内实施 。  

由于生物柴油比以石油为基础的燃料更贵，因此使用更多的生物柴油实际上会提高燃料价格。 

减少进口  

据美国知名商品与股票经纪商StoneX集团石油分析师佩德罗·辛扎托估计，混合柴油的增加可能会使巴西每月柴油进口减少5船，而巴西通常每月进口20至30船的柴油。  

巴西行业组织Abiove说，生产商可以利用现有库存和可出口的过剩石油为一种生物柴油混合燃料提供12%的石油。据一位知情人士透露，要达到15%的比例，巴西生产商需要再压榨300万吨大豆。今年巴西估计要压榨4800万吨大豆。 

由于担心供应紧张，芝加哥豆油价格接近历史最高水平。由于保护主义措施导致竞争对手棕榈油的出口下降，以及葵花籽油的出口下降，大豆油的需求一直在增加。由于对豆制品的强劲需求有利于压榨，巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司Conab在6月8日下调了今年巴西的大豆出口预期。

巴西能源部新闻官员表示，目前还没有就此事做出决定。巴西石油监管机构ANP在一份声明中说，它正在监测情况，并提出必要的措施来保证柴油供应，但没有提到具体措施。

根据6月3日发布的一份声明，巴西主要的石油联盟FUP警告称，今年下半年，柴油价格可能从目前的大约每升7雷亚尔（每加仑7.77美元）升至每升10雷亚尔。FUP还警告说，农业收获期间柴油需求的增加加剧了供应的短缺。巴西农民通常在每年的第三和第四季度使用更多的柴油。 

李峻 编译自 能源网

原文如下：

Brazil Mulls Using More Biodiesel to Avoid Fuel Shortage

Brazil’s government is mulling an increase later this year in the amount of biodiesel blended into trucking fuel to avoid shortages. 

Latin America’s largest economy may boost the biodiesel blend to 15% from 10% if stockpiles of diesel remain at low levels during the second half of the year, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, who asked to not be named because the discussion isn’t public. The increase would be in place for a limited time, one of the people said.

The higher blend would help maintain stockpiles at a time when there’s a higher risk that supply from the US is curbed due to hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Fewer imports

An increase in the blend could reduce diesel imports by five vessels per month out of the typical 20 to 30 ships, according to estimates by Pedro Shinzato, an oil analyst at StoneX. 

Industry group Abiove said producers can supply oil for a biodiesel blend of 12% using current stockpiles and exportable surplus. To reach 15% would require Brazilian producers to crush an additional 3 million tons of soybeans, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. That’s on top of the 48 million tons estimated for this year.

Soy-oil prices are trading near all-time-highs in Chicago on tight supply concerns. Demand for soybean oil has been increasing amid lower exports of rivals palm oil, due to protectionism measures, and sunflower oil because of the war. On Wednesday, Brazil’s national supply company Conab cut its estimate for bean exports this year as strong demand for soy products has favored crushing.

The Energy Ministry press officer said that there’s no decision on this matter at the moment. Brazil’s oil regulator, known as ANP, said in a statement that it is monitoring the situation and proposing necessary measures to guarantee the diesel supply, without mention which measures was proposed.

Brazil’s main oil union, known as FUP, warned that diesel prices may reach 10 reais per liter ($7.77 per gallon) during the second half of the year from the current level of about 7 reais, according to a statement published on June 3. The union had also warned that the increase in demand during the agricultural harvest added to the scarcity of supply. Farmers typically use more diesel during the third and fourth quarters of the year.