据钻机地带6月24日报道,最近,美国天然气日产量增长了19亿立方英尺,2022年第二季度增长了2%。来自海恩斯维尔、阿巴拉契亚、二叠纪和SCOOP—STACK的产量已经成功缓解了美国市场紧张的压力,然而,高价格短期内仍无法解决。
根据分析的数据显示,6月份美国天然气日产量达到945亿立方英尺,高于第一季度的日均945亿立方英尺。海恩斯维尔是产量的主要贡献者,自3月以来其日产量上升了近6亿立方英尺。
这在一定程度上是由于钻机数量超过70台,创下了十年新高。Marcellus和Utica在同一时期增加了4.2亿立方英尺/天,增加了3.8亿立方英尺/天, SCOOP—STACK增加了2.8亿立方英尺/天。
美国天然气产量在新年大幅下降后,逐渐恢复到2021年底的960亿立方英尺/天左右。
然而,缓慢的增长并没有带来任何价格缓解,亨利枢纽中心今年的天然气基准均价接近6美元/百万英热单位 ,预计在2023年中期之前不会缓解。
自由港液化天然气问题已使美国基准天然气价格从5月和6月的9美元/百万英热单位降至6美元/百万英热单位。然而,从2023年第二季度起,亨利枢纽中心的价格没有太大变化,因为这些合约均价为4.92美元/百万英热单位。
油价走高或许并不意外,主要产油国并未改变全年指导产量,预计2022年美国天然气产量将持平。然而,美国能源巨头雪佛龙和埃克森美孚分别将其全年预期上调了20%和25%。
在很大程度上,二叠纪盆地的生产商要么保持其指导方针不变,要么小幅上调,预测美国天然气产量可能在2022年第四季度末达到970亿立方英尺/天的范围。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下:
US Gas Production Up 2 Pct In Q2
Natural gas production in the United States has seen an output growth of 1.9 Bcf/d recently, 2 percent up in the second quarter of 2022. Volumes coming out from the Haynesville, Appalachia, the Permian, and the SCOOP-STACK have managed to ease the strain on the tight US market, however, there is no short-term fix for high prices.
Analytics data shows that in June US natural gas production reached 94.5 Bcf/d from the average of 94.5 Bcf/d recorded in the first quarter. Haynesville has been the main contributor to the output with its production rise of nearly 600 MMcf/d since March.
This was partly enabled by the decade-high rig count rise to over 70. Marcellus and Utica added an additional 420 MMcf/d over the same period while Permian contributed an additional 380 MMcf/d with SCOO-STACK contributing with an additional 280 MMcf/d rise.
US natural gas production volumes have slowly been returning to the late 2021 volumes of around 96 Bcf/d, after a sharp drop in the new year.
However, the slow growth has not brought any price relief with Henry Hub cash price averaging nearly $6/MMBtu this year, according to Platts, and no relief is expected before mid-2023.
The Freeport LNG issues have dropped the benchmark US gas prices to the $6/MMBtu mark from $9/MMBtu in May and June. However, there is not much change in Henry Hub prices from the second quarter of 2023 onwards, as these contracts are averaging $4.92/MMBtu.
The high prices may not come as a surprise as major producers have not changed their full-year guidance with US natural gas production expected to remain flat in 2022. US majors Chevron and ExxonMobil, did, however, increase their full-year guidance by 20 and 25 percent, respectively.
For the most part, producers in the Permian Basin have either left their guidance unchanged or made minor upward changes predicting that the US natural gas production could reach the 97 Bcf/d range in the late fourth quarter of 2022.
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