全球可采石油总储量正在以惊人速度下降

根据雷斯塔能源公司的分析，目前全球可采石油总储量估计为1.572万亿桶

与去年相比，全球可采石油总储量已减少1520亿桶

去年生产的300亿桶石油产量，加上未发现资源的大幅减少，驱动了全球石油总储量的下降

据美国油价网7月3日报道，在英国石油公司（bp）发布《年度统计评论》之后，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）每年都会发布其对全球能源格局的分析，提供独立的、基于数据的比较和评估。延续前几年的趋势，Rystad的今年评估显示，全球可采石油资源大幅下降，这可能对全球能源安全造成重大打击。  

根据Rystad的分析，目前全球可采石油总储量估计为1.572万亿桶，比去年下降近9%，比去年减少了1520亿桶。 

去年生产的300亿桶石油产量，加上未发现资源量的大幅减少，驱动了全球石油总储量下降1200亿桶。美国海上行业对石油产量下降的影响最大，有200亿桶石油储量仍在地下，这很大程度上要归功于联邦土地租赁禁令。

在技术上可开采的1.572万亿桶石油储量中，以每桶50美元的价格计算，在2100年之前只有大约1.2万亿桶石油储量可能具有经济可行性。这种经济上可开采的石油储量在2050年前将贡献约0.1℃的额外全球变暖，多亏天然碳汇，全球变暖在2100年前将有所减少。 

Rystad分析主管尼斯芬表示：“虽然石油供应量的下降对环境是一个好消息，但它可能会进一步破坏本已不稳定的能源格局。能源安全是一个冗余问题；我们需要更多的能源来满足日益增长的运输需求，而任何抑制供应的行动都将迅速对全球的汽油价格产生反效果，包括美国等大型产油国。政治家和投资者可以通过瞄准能源消费、鼓励交通部门电气化以及大幅提高燃料效率来获得成功。” 

从长期来看，Rystad在最新报告中更新了我们对未发现石油总储量的估计，从2018年的1万亿桶到我们最新报告中的3500亿桶，原因是投资者对勘探敞口的兴趣迅速下降，导致政府租约减少。这一向下修正对碳排放合规来说是个好消息，但可能对全球能源安全会产生负面影响，特别是如果电动汽车的使用率低于预期。 

总可采石油储量对更广泛的气候影响大体上是积极的。如果所有剩余的可采石油都立即燃烧，全球气候变暖的影响将是+0.25℃。 然而，到2100年，只有35%的石油燃烧排放的碳仍会留在大气中，因为二氧化碳需要80年才能自然地从空气中去除。此外，并不是所有的石油都是作为能源燃烧的；例如，塑料中的碳只有在焚烧后才会释放到大气中。 

全球探明石油储量能维持多久?  

Rystad的最新报告修订了全球已探明石油储量。今年，Rystad发现欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国探明储量的开采寿命存在显著差异。所有欧佩克国家探明的石油储量预计都将超过10年，从伊拉克的10年多到沙特阿拉伯的14年多。在非欧佩克成员国中，墨西哥已探明储量不足5年，在单个国家中排名最后，而加拿大的石油储量预计可维持开采近20年。 

石油储量都到哪儿去了?  

在可采石油资源报告中，沙特阿拉伯以2750亿桶位居榜首，美国以1930亿桶紧随其后。前五名还有加拿大1180亿桶和伊拉克1050亿桶。 

在南美洲——一个石油发现和生产快速增长的地区——巴西仍然是第一，其可采石油储量710亿桶，但比去年减少了40亿桶。在欧洲，英国和挪威的可采石油储量均下降了10亿桶，现在分别为100亿桶和170亿桶。  

与今年大多数国家石油资源减少的趋势相反，美国今年迄今的探明石油资源增加了80亿桶。  

Rystad最新的资源评估时间为今年1月1日。换句话说，Rystad的分析说明了今年年初各国剩余可采资源的情况。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Total Global Recoverable Oil Reserves Are Falling At An Alarming Rate

According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels.

Global recoverable oil reserves fell by 152 billion barrels compared to 2021.

The drop in reserves is driven by the 30 billion barrels of oil produced last year, plus a significant reduction in undiscovered resources.

Following publication of BP’s annual Statistical Review, each year Rystad Energy releases our own analysis of the global energy landscape to provide an independent, data-based comparison and evaluation. Continuing the trend from previous years, Rystad Energy’s 2022 review shows a sizeable drop in recoverable oil resources in what could deal a major blow to global energy security.

The drop in reserves is driven by the 30 billion barrels of oil produced last year, plus a significant reduction in undiscovered resources, to the tune of 120 billion barrels. The US offshore sector has contributed the largest total to that drop, where 20 billion barrels of oil will remain in the ground, largely thanks to leasing bans on federal land.

Of the 1,572 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, only about 1,200 billion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 at $50 per barrel. This economically extractable oil would contribute about 0.1 C of additional global warming by 2050, and somewhat less by 2100 thanks to natural carbon sinks.

“While the drop in oil availability is positive news for the environment, it may threaten to further destabilize an already precarious energy landscape. Energy security is a matter of redundancy; we need more of everything to meet the growing demand for transport and any action to curb supply will quickly backfire on pump prices worldwide, including large producers such as the US. Politicians and investors can find success by targeting energy consumption, encouraging electrification of the transport sector and drastically improving fuel efficiency,” says Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad Energy’s head of analysis. 

Looking at the longer-term picture, Rystad Energy has updated our estimates for total undiscovered oil from 1 trillion barrels in 2018 to 350 billion barrels in our latest report, due to a rapid collapse in investor appetite for exploration exposure, leading to fewer government leases. This downward revision is good news for carbon compliance but could have negative consequences for global energy security, particularly if electric vehicle adoption falls short of expectations.

The broader climate implications of the total recoverable oil are broadly positive. If all remaining recoverable oil was to be burnt immediately, the global warming impact would be +0.25 C However, only 35% of carbon emissions from that oil would still be in the atmosphere in 2100, as it takes 80 years to be naturally removed from the air. Also, not all oil is burnt for energy; for example, carbon in plastics is released into the atmosphere only if incinerated.

According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels, a drop of almost 9% since last year and 152 billion fewer barrels than 2021’s total.