据美国钻井网站2022年7月8日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司7月8日发布了其最新的油价展望报告，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司分析师们预计油价下行风险将持续到2026年。
根据惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司的最新预测，布伦特原油的平均价格在2022年为105美元/桶，2023年为100美元/桶，2024年和2025年为88美元/桶，2026年为85美元/桶。
惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司分析师们在一份发给美国钻井网站的报告中表示：“我们本月上调了布伦特原油价格预测。”
分析师们补充说，“我们现在预测，2022年布伦特原油均价将从之前的每桶100美元升至105美元。对于2023年，我们将预测从每桶90美元上调至每桶100美元。这一修正反映出第二季度的强劲价格表现，以及对全球石油市场紧张程度和持续程度高于我们此前的预期。”
分析师们表示，战略石油储备的协同释放有助于改善市场供应，但产量仍然受到严重限制，协调释放计划只持续到今年年底。
此外，分析师们表示，欧佩克+继续远远低于其月度产量目标，“同时人们质疑，持有全球大部分备用产能的沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋是否有能力在近期大幅提高原油产量”。
分析师们在报告中表示：“尽管我们认为备用产能是存在的，但欧佩克+协议的限制以及沙特阿拉伯不愿耗尽其备用产能，这将限制今年下半年的原油产量上升。”
分析师们在报告中指出：“尽管供应方面的驱动因素非常乐观，但需求方面的驱动因素则更为复杂。”
分析师们说：“我们目前预计，在疫情期间失去的需求正在恢复的支持下，今年和明年的消费将强劲增长，分别为2.3%和3.0%。然而，随着能源成本上升和更广泛的生活成本危机威胁消费，这一预测的风险严重偏向于下行。”
“此外，经济正面临重大逆风，表现为持续的通胀压力和金融环境收紧，金融市场波动加剧，不断恶化的社会动荡以及经济增长放缓，加大了衰退的风险。”分析师们如是说。
惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司参与的彭博共识预测，今年布伦特原油平均价格为100美元/桶，2023年为91美元/桶，2024年为85美元/桶，2025年为72.5美元/桶，2026年为78美元/桶。
除了看到今年布伦特原油平均价格为100美元/桶和2023年布伦特平均价格为91美元/桶之外，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司之前6月2日发送给美国钻井网站的油价展望报告中，看到2024年布伦特原油平均价格为85美元/桶，以及2025年和2026年布伦特原油平均价格达到88美元/桶。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶104.25美元。今年以来，布伦特原油价格曾数次突破每桶120美元，但已从7月1日的111.63美元/桶跌至7月6日的100.69美元/桶。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Where Is Oil Heading Next?
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has released its latest oil price outlook, which outlines where the company sees the commodity going through to 2026.
According to its latest forecast, Fitch Solutions now expects the Brent crude oil price to average $105 per barrel in 2022, $100 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026.
“We have made an upward revision to our Brent crude price forecast this month,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone.
“We now forecast Brent to average $105 per barrel in 2022, up from $100 per barrel previously. For 2023, we have revised up the forecast from $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel. The revision reflects a strong price performance over Q2 and expectation of greater and more persistent tightness in the global oil market than we had previously anticipated,” the analysts added.
The analysts stated that coordinated releases of strategic petroleum reserves are helping improve market supply but added that production remains heavily constrained and coordinated releases are planned only until the end of this year.
In addition, the analysts said OPEC+ continues to fall far short of its monthly production targets, “while questions are being asked as the ability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which hold the bulk of global spare capacity, to significantly raise production in the near term”.
“Although we believe the capacity is there, the constraints of the OPEC+ deal and Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to run down its spare capacity will limit the upside to output in H2,” the analysts stated in the report.
“While supply-side drivers are firmly bullish, the demand side is more mixed,” the analysts noted in the report.
“We are currently forecasting strong consumption growth in 2022 and 2023, at 2.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, supported by the ongoing recovery of demand lost during the pandemic. However, the risks to this forecast are skewed heavily to the downside, as higher energy costs and a broader cost-of-living crisis threaten consumption,” the analysts added.
“Moreover, the economy is facing major headwinds in the form of persistent inflationary pressure and tightening financial conditions, heightened financial market volatility, rising social unrest and slowing growth, raising the risk of recession,” the analysts continued.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, sees the Brent crude oil price averaging $100 per barrel in 2022, $91 per barrel in 2023, $85 per barrel in 2024, $72.5 per barrel in 2025, and $78 per barrel in 2026.
In addition to seeing the 2022 Brent price averaging $100 per barrel and the 2023 Brent price averaging $90 per barrel, Fitch Solutions’ previous oil price outlook, which was sent to Rigzone on June 2, saw the 2024 Brent price averaging $85 per barrel, and the 2025 and 2026 average Brent price hitting $88 per barrel.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent is trading at $104.25 per barrel. Brent has closed above $120 per barrel on several occasions this year but dropped from $111.63 per barrel on July 1 to $100.69 per barrel on July 6.
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