据美国钻井网站7月19日报道，美国的天然气产量预计在未来几个月里将再次创下历史新高，届时天然气日产量将超过1000亿立方英尺，美国将在全球面临严重天然气供应短缺的情况下帮助满足全球需求。
挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的分析显示，美国主要产气盆地海恩斯维尔和阿帕拉契亚的页岩气产量增长，以及来自二叠纪盆地的伴生天然气产量增长，将巩固美国作为全球最大天然气生产国的地位，从而扩大其对产能大国的领先优势，并超过美国能源信息署（EIA）的官方增长预期。
在页岩气远景区中，马塞勒斯、尤蒂卡和海恩斯维尔的贡献最大。然而，阿巴拉契亚页岩远景区的发展完全取决于拟议中的山谷管道项目的进展，该管道项目仍面临重大的法律障碍。与2021年相比，仅海恩斯维尔页岩远景区今年的日产量预计将增长26亿立方英尺，使其页岩气日产量超过140亿立方英尺。预计海恩斯维尔页岩远景区的日总产量明年也将大幅增加，到2023年底达到172亿立方英尺。在美国的其他页岩远景区，伍德福德盆地的天然气产量也可能在2023年对日总产量的增长作出重大贡献，其中10亿立方英尺的产量增长并不排除。
Rystad表示，近期全球天然气价格飙升，正推动美国勘探和生产公司增加投资，希望利用具有竞争力的盈亏平衡成本。在欧洲努力缓解对天然气的依赖之际，欧洲天然气供应出现明显短缺，这推动欧洲大陆的天然气价格不断走高。尽管美国和欧洲的价差相对较高，但在大西洋两岸生产和运输美国天然气（即使考虑到昂贵的液化过程）仍具有经济优势。
欧洲和美国的天然气价格计算方法不同，但如果将欧洲价格换算成美国标准的美元/百万英热单位（MMBtu），就可以直接进行比较。自2020年夏季以来，美欧价差稳步扩大。当时，不同寻常的市场基本面因素导致美国基准亨利基准指数和欧洲基准荷兰基准指数异常接近。
地缘政治冲突爆发以及随之而来的全球能源危机加剧了这种差距。截至7月15日，亨利中心的价格为7美元/ 百万英热单位，而TTF的价格为惊人的47美元/ 百万英热单位，几乎是美国价格的7倍。 然而，液化天然气产能的限制将限制美国向国际运输的天然气数量。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
U.S. Gas Output To Hit Record High By End-2022. More Growth In 2023.
US natural gas production is forecast to hit an all-time high in the coming months, racing past 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), helping feed global demand as the world faces a severe supply shortage.
Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that production growth from the major US gas-producing basins of the Haynesville and Appalachia, in addition to associated gas volumes from the Permian, will solidify the country’s position as the world’s largest gas producer, stretching its lead, and surpassing the official growth expectations of the EIA.
Within shale gas plays, the Marcellus, Utica, and Haynesville are set to contribute the most. Growth in Appalachia, however, is entirely dependent on the progress of the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline, which still faces significant legal hurdles. Production from the Haynesville alone is expected to grow by a staggering 2.6 Bcfd this year compared to 2021, pushing annual output from the play to more than 14 Bcfd. Total production from the basin is forecast to jump next year too, reaching 17.2 Bcfd by the end of 2023. Elsewhere in the US, gas production from the Woodford basin could also contribute major growth to total output in 2023, with a 1 Bcfd expansion not off the table.
Rystad said that the recent global gas price surges were driving increased investment by US exploration and production companies looking to capitalize on competitive breakeven costs. A well-documented European supply shortage amid efforts to ease reliance on gas is pushing prices on the continent ever higher. Although relatively elevated for the domestic market, US and European price differences are so wide producing and shipping US gas across the Atlantic, even accounting for the pricey liquefaction process, is still economically advantageous.
Gas prices are measured differently in Europe and the US but converting European prices to the US-standard dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) allows a direct comparison. The US-Europe price spread has widened steadily since summer 2020, when unusual market fundamentals brought the Henry Hub – the US benchmark – and the Dutch TTF – the European marker – unusually close. The war and the ensuing global energy crisis has accelerated the disparity. As of July 15, the Henry Hub was $7 per MMBtu, whereas the TTF stood at a staggering $47 per MMBtu, almost seven times the US price. However, LNG capacity constraints will limit how much gas the US can ship internationally.
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