据海上工程师网2022年7月20日报道，美国第3大石油公司康菲公司（大陆菲利普斯公司）首席执行官周二警告称，原油短缺和价格波动迫在眉睫，理由是欧佩克用产能有限，且美国未来石油产量增幅放缓。
美国最大的独立石油生产商康菲公司首席执行官瑞安·兰斯在对石油组织休斯敦生产者论坛成员的讲话中对未来的全球石油供应前景表示悲观。就在几天前，美国总统从沙特阿拉伯回国，未能就欧佩克+集团增加原油产量达成协议。
“最终，需求将回到疫情暴发前的水平”，兰斯表示，同时对欧佩克缺乏额外产能和美国原油产量停滞持谨慎态度。“全球石油供应短缺即将到来”，兰斯如是说。
兰斯说，随着时间的推移，阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯可能每天增加100万或200万桶石油，但“欧佩克+的其他国家正在苦苦挣扎”，包括尼日利亚、安哥拉等。
在截至2019年12月的三年中，美国石油日产量飙升了400万桶，但现在增长速度已放缓。 兰斯说：“美国今年的石油日产量增加将不足100万桶…… 明年我们的产量增加可能会接近100万桶。但我们已开始进入稳产期。”
他说，石油需求最终将超过疫情前的水平，需求高峰可能还要再过10到20年。兰斯补充说，对经济衰退的担忧将导致市场进一步波动。
他对能源听众表示：“如果你打算进入这个行业，就要为大量的波动做好准备。”“它会上升，也会下降，但不一定是这个顺序。”
李峻 编译自 海上工程师网
原文如下：
Oil Supply Crunch is Coming, ConocoPhillips CEO Says
ConocoPhillips' chief executive on Tuesday warned of looming crude oil shortages and price volatility, citing limited spare capacity among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and slow U.S. output gains ahead.
Ryan Lance, head of the largest U.S. independent oil producer, offered a dour outlook on future supply in remarks to members of oil group the Houston Producers Forum. His comments came days after U.S. President returned from Saudi Arabia without success in securing an agreement for the OPEC+ group to boost production.
"Ultimately, demand will go back to pre-pandemic levels," Lance said while cautioning about OPEC's lack of additional capacity and a U.S. production plateau. "There is a supply crunch coming," Lance said.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could add 1 million or 2 million barrels per day (bpd) over time, but "the rest of the OPEC+ (alliance) is struggling," including Nigeria, Angola, he said.
U.S. oil production, which soared by 4 million barrels per day in the three years ended December 2019, is expanding more slowly. "The U.S. will grow shy of a million barrels a day this year ... and we'll probably grow close to another million barrels next year. But we start to kind of plateau," he added.
Oil demand ultimately will exceed pre-pandemic levels and peak demand is probably another 10 to 20 years out, he said. Concerns about recession will lead to further market volatility, Lance added.
"If you are going to be in the business, be prepared for a lot of volatility," he told the energy audience. "It's going to go up and it's going to go down, but not necessarily in that order."
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