在一份7月19日最新发布的报告中，惠誉评级机构旗下可持续惠誉（Sustainable Fitch）指出，石油和天然气公司正在努力提出可行性转型计划，尽管欧洲大型石油公司正在引领转型，但投资者的压力正在迅速演变，并转向中市值和较低市值能源公司。
能源行业中化石燃料产品的使用是全球最大温室气体排放源之一，也是碳排放最密集的行业之一。由于全球向低碳世界转型，需求的破坏和脱碳的压力给油气行业带来了特有风险。
大多数公司还没有解决潜在的需求破坏。全球90%的GDP和85%的人口都有自己国家的净零政策或目标，预计这将对石油和天然气产品的长期需求产生深远影响。然而，石油和天然气公司的绝大部分收入仍然来自化石燃料的生产和销售，并且在上游生产和勘探方面的投资仍然远远超过低碳商业模式下的资本支出。
新的商业模式发展缓慢。欧洲石油巨头以及一些中低市值能源公司正在增加对可再生能源和其他替代燃料的投资，而美国石油巨头则将重点放在蓝色氢和碳捕获解决方案（CCS）上，作为可能的新收入来源。在短期内，还没有一家油气公司制定出明确而有力的商业战略来摆脱化石燃料生产。
从石油到天然气的转变带来长期的不确定性。无论是大公司还是小公司，都已开始大幅从石油转向天然气生产。天然气长期以来一直被视为一种“过渡性燃料”，业内许多人认为，在转向可再生能源之前，它是一种可行的、长期的低碳能源来源，可以从煤炭发电转向天然气发电。煤制气转型是美国近几十年来实现可观减排的主要原因之一。特别是在新兴市场，这是持续投资天然气勘探的一个关键原因，天然气需求预测继续预测未来几十年天然气需求将增加，特别是在亚洲。
李林 译自 惠誉评级网站
Oil And Gas Companies Struggling to Come up With Credible Transition Plans
European Majors Leading But Investor Pressure Evolving Fast, Turning to Mid-caps, Juniors
In a new report, Sustainable Fitch reveals that oil and gas companies are struggling to come up with credible transition plans, and that while European majors are leading the transition, investor pressure is evolving fast and turning to mid-caps and juniors.
The use of the sector’s fossil fuel products is one of the biggest global sources of GHG emissions and it is one of the most emissions-intensive industries. Demand destruction and pressure to decarbonize due to the global transition to a low-carbon worl d present significant and unique risks for the oil and gas industry.
Most Companies Not Yet Addressing Possible Demand Destruction
With 90% of the world’s GDP and 85% of the world’s population covered under some sort of national net zero policy or target, we expect a profound impact on demand for oil and gas products in the long term. However, oil and gas companies still generate the vast majority of revenues from producing and selling fossil fuels and investment in upstream production and exploration remain significantly larger than capex in low-carbon business models.
New Business Models Emerging only Slowly
European majors and some mid-caps and juniors are increasing investments in renewable energy and other alternative fuels while US majors are focusing on blue hydrogen and carbon capture solutions (CCS) as possible new revenue streams. In the short term, no oil and gas company has developed a business strategy that would offer a clear and robust path to shift away from fossil fuel production.
Shift from Oil to Gas Brings Long-Term Uncertainty
Both majors and smaller companies have started to significantly shift from oil to gas production. Gas has long been seen as a ‘bridge fuel’ and many in the industry consider it a viable, long-term option as a lower-carbon energy source to shift from coal electricity generation to gas before making the shift to renewables. The coal-to-gas shift is one of the main reasons why the US has achieved considerable emissions reductions in recent decades. Especially in emerging markets this has been a key reason for continued investment in gas exploration, and gas demand forecasts continue to project increasing demand for gas in the coming decades, especially in Asia.
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