据全球能源新闻网7月23日报道，预计美国天然气产量将在未来几个月创下历史新高，日产量将超过1000亿立方英尺，在全球面临严重供应短缺的情况下，以满足全球需求。
根据雷斯塔能源的分析显示，除了来自二叠纪的伴生天然气产量，美国主要天然气生产流域海恩斯维尔和阿巴拉契亚的产量增长，将巩固该国作为世界最大天然气生产国的地位，扩大其领先其他产能大国的优势，并超过EIA的官方增长预期。
在页岩气领域，马塞勒斯、尤蒂卡和海恩斯维尔地区的贡献最大。然而，阿巴拉契亚地区的增长完全依赖于拟议中的Mountain Valley管道的进展，这仍面临着重大的法律阻碍。
与2021年相比，仅恩斯维尔区块今年的日产量预计将增长26亿立方英尺，使该区块的年产量超过14亿立方英尺/天。预计该流域的总产量明年也将大幅增加，到2023年底达到172亿立方英尺/天。在美国的其他地区，伍德福德盆地的天然气产量也可能在2023年对总产量的增长作出重大贡献，日产量将增加10亿立方英尺。
近期全球天然气价格飙升推动美国勘探和生产公司增加投资，以利用具有竞争力的盈亏平衡成本。
在欧洲努力缓解对产能大国天然气的依赖之际，欧洲天然气供应出现明显短缺，这推动欧洲大陆的天然气价格不断走高。尽管美国国内市场价格相对较高，但美国和欧洲的价格差异如此巨大，生产和运输美国天然气，即使考虑到昂贵的液化过程，在经济上仍然具有优势。
在欧洲和美国，天然气价格的衡量方式不同，但将欧洲价格换算成每百万英热单位的美元标准可以进行直接比较。自2020年夏季以来，美欧价差稳步扩大。当时，不同寻常的市场基本面因素导致美国基准亨利基准指数（Henry Hub）和欧洲基准荷兰基准指数（Dutch TTF）异常接近。地缘政治冲突和随后的全球能源危机已经加大了差距。截至7月15日，Henry Hub的价格为7美元/百万英热单位，而TTF的价格为惊人的47美元/百万英热单位，几乎是美国价格的7倍。然而，液化天然气产能的限制将限制美国向国际运输的天然气数量。
雷斯塔能源公司高级分析师Kristine Vassbotn表示，美国已经是世界上最大的天然气生产国，准备进一步提高产量以满足全球需求，但向外销售限制是一个严重的风险。然而，随着2024年之后预计将增加新的液化天然气产能，美国在未来一段时间内将在全球天然气市场中发挥更大的作用。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下:
US GAS PRODUCTION TO REACH RECORD HIGH BY THE END OF 2022 WITH MORE GROWTH TO COME
US natural gas production is forecast to hit an all-time high in the coming months, racing past 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), helping feed global demand as the world faces a severe supply shortage.
Rystad Energy’s analysis shows that production growth from the major US gas-producing basins of the Haynesville and Appalachia, in addition to associated gas volumes from the Permian, will solidify the country’s position as the world’s largest gas producer, stretching its lead over the larger producer, and surpassing the official growth expectations of the EIA.
Within shale gas plays, the Marcellus, Utica and Haynesville are set to contribute the most. Growth in Appalachia, however, is entirely dependent on the progress of the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline, which still faces significant legal hurdles.
Production from the Haynesville alone is expected to grow by a staggering 2.6 Bcfd this year compared to 2021, pushing annual output from the play to more than 14 Bcfd. Total production from the basin is forecast to jump next year too, reaching 17.2 Bcfd by the end of 2023. Elsewhere in the US, gas production from the Woodford basin could also contribute major growth to total output in 2023, with a 1 Bcfd expansion not off the table.
Recent global gas price surges are driving increased investment by US exploration and production companies looking to capitalize on competitive breakeven costs.
A well-documented European supply shortage amid efforts to ease reliance on Russian gas is pushing prices on the continent ever higher. Although relatively elevated for the domestic market, US and European price differences are so wide producing and shipping US gas across the Atlantic, even accounting for the pricey liquefaction process, is still economically advantageous.
Gas prices are measured differently in Europe and the US but converting European prices to the US-standard dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) allows a direct comparison. The US-Europe price spread has widened steadily since summer 2020, when unusual market fundamentals brought the Henry Hub – the US benchmark – and the Dutch TTF – the European marker – unusually close.The war and the ensuing global energy crisis has accelerated the disparity. As of July 15, the Henry Hub was $7 per MMBtu, whereas the TTF stood at a staggering $47 per MMBtu, almost seven times the US price. However, LNG capacity constraints will limit how much gas the US can ship internationally.
“Already the top gas producer in the world, the US stands ready to boost output further to meet the global demand, but takeaway constraints are a serious risk. However, with new LNG capacity expected to be added after 2024, the US is set to grow its role in global gas markets for some time to come,” says Kristine Vassbotn, Rystad Energy senior analyst.
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