欧佩克明年将尽力平衡全球石油供应和需求

据美国彭博新闻社2022年7月18日报道，如果欧佩克产油国想要平衡全球石油供应和需求，就需要在2023年以过去5年来最快的速度生产原油。产能限制表明，欧佩克可能会陷入困境。

国际能源署（IEA）、美国能源信息署（EIA）和石油输出国组织（欧佩克）的最新预测都显示，尽管人们越来越担心通胀加剧和经济增长疲软，但2023年全球石油需求将再次强劲增长。对新产能的投资不足意味着欧佩克产油国将需要增加石油产量以满足需求。

这3家预测机构都认为，2023年全球石油需求将至少日增200万桶，自2020年初疫情以来首次超过2019年的水平。  

与IEA和EIA的同行相比，欧佩克的预测人士对全球石油需求增长的看法要乐观得多。结合对2022年和2023年全球石油需求增长预测，欧佩克预计全球未来两年将日增600多万桶石油需求。相比之下，IEA的数据为日增390万桶，EIA的数据为日增430万桶。 

欧佩克的最新报告认为，无论是疫情、地缘军事冲突，还是在通胀飙升的情况下全球金融紧缩，都没有在很大程度上破坏经济增长，主要经济体在“恢复其增长潜力”。不过，报告也指出，围绕其预测的不确定性“仍在下降”。  

欧佩克认为，这一增长将使全球石油平均日需求在2023年达到1.03亿桶，而IEA和EIA的数据分别为1.013亿桶和1.016亿桶。

这些需求数据给欧佩克成员国带来了越来越大的增产压力，尽管它们中的大多数成员国已经在尽可能多地生产石油了。

根据欧佩克和IEA公布的数据，结合需求和非欧佩克国家的供应前景，到2023年，欧佩克13个成员国平均每天需要供应超过3000万桶石油。EIA的预测是每天2940万桶。 

根据欧佩克自己的数据，这不是该组织的创纪录产量水平，但将是自2018年以来的最高水平。 更重要的是，根据彭博新闻社对欧佩克成员国可持续生产能力的评估，这将把该组织的备用日产能推至多年来的低点，约为200万桶。

上一次欧佩克现有成员国的石油日总产量超过3000万桶，其中5个国家的日总产量比6月份高出近275万桶。只有3个成员国——伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国——6月份的石油产量高于2018年的平均水平。

这不是自愿克制的结果。欧佩克的10个成员国受2020年与非欧佩克盟国达成生产协议条款的约束，其日产量比6月份允许的产量目标低了100万桶以上。 

自2020年7月以来，欧佩克成员国的石油产量一直没有达到批准的水平。最初，这有助于平衡盟友的过度生产。更近一些时候，它反映出欧佩克无力在实现增长目标的同时提高产量。他们中的大多数已经竭尽所能。

在油价超过每桶100美元的情况下，欧佩克产油国无法提高产量，而全球对其原油的需求继续飙升，这对未来来说不是什么好兆头。与6月相比，欧佩克明年平均每天需要增产约136万桶。

这将对欧佩克几乎所有成员国的生产能力造成压力。当然，除非需求增长最终并不像预测者所暗示的那样强劲。 

李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

原文如下：

OPEC Will Struggle To Balance Supply And Demand In 2023

OPEC producers will need to pump crude at the fastest pace in five years in 2023 if they are to balance oil supply and demand. Capacity constraints suggest they may struggle.

The latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all show global oil demand rising strongly again in 2023, despite growing fears over mounting inflation and weakening economic growth. A lack of investment in new crude production capacity means that the OPEC group of producers will need to pump more to meet that demand.

All three forecasters see global oil demand increasing by at least 2 million barrels a day next year, taking it back above the 2019 level for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic struck in early 2020.

The forecasters at the producer group are much more bullish about oil demand than their counterparts in the IEA and EIA. Combining growth estimates for 2022 and 2023, they see an increase over the two years of more than 6 million barrels a day. That compares with 3.9 million barrels a day seen by the IEA and 4.3 million barrels a day from the EIA.

The latest report from OPEC assumes that neither the Covid pandemic, the war, nor global financial tightening amid soaring inflation undermines economic growth to a significant degree and that major economies “revert back towards their growth potentials.” It does note, though, that the uncertainties around its forecast “remain to the downside.”

OPEC sees that growth taking global oil demand to 103 million barrels a day on average in 2023. The IEA and EIA see the figure at 101.3 million barrels and 101.6 million barrels a day respectively.

Those demand numbers put growing pressure on the OPEC countries to pump more, even as most of them are already producing as much as they can.

Combining the demand and non-OPEC supply outlooks, the 13 members of OPEC will need to deliver more than 30 million barrels a day on average in 2023, according to both OPEC and the IEA. The EIA outlook puts the figure at 29.4 million barrels a day.

That’s not a record production level for the group, but it would be the highest since 2018, according to OPEC’s own figures. More importantly, it would push the group’s spare capacity to a multi-year low of about 2 million barrels a day, based on Bloomberg’s assessment of sustainable production capacities in OPEC countries.

The last time the current members of OPEC collectively pumped more than 30 million barrels a day, the combined output of five of them was almost 2.75 million barrels a day higher than it was in June. Just three members — Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — pumped more last month than they did on average in 2018.

That’s not a result of voluntary restraint. The 10 members of OPEC bound by the terms of the production accord they struck in 2020 with a group of non-OPEC allies pumped over 1 million barrels a day less than their targets allowed last month.

OPEC members haven’t pumped as much as they were permitted since July 2020. Initially, that helped balance over-production by its allies. More recently, it has reflected an inability to boost output in line with rising targets. Most of them are already pumping as much as they can.

OPEC producers’ inability to raise production rates with oil prices above $100 a barrel and soaring demand for their crude doesn’t bode well for the future. The group will need to pump about 1.36 million barrels a day more on average next year than it did last month.

That’s going to put pressure on the production capacities of almost all of them. Unless, of course, demand growth doesn’t turn out to be anywhere near as strong as the forecasters are suggesting.