据能源网8月8日休斯敦报道，美国页岩油钻探公司仍没有表现出增加产量以应对全球油价高企的迹象，只是现在他们不仅专注于回报股东，而且还专注于飙升的成本。
尽管地缘政治冲突后，美国原油价格今年飙升至每桶120美元，但近日公布二季度业绩的十多家公司的石油和天然气产量预测与三个月前相比几乎没有变化，仅下降了0.6%。与此同时，柴油、钢铁、化工和劳动力成本的上涨促使这些公司将资本预算提高了7%。
页岩油高管不愿提高产量，意味着世界油市实际上已经失去了两大增长引擎。石油输出国组织（OPEC）本周承认“过剩产能严重受限”，并表示只能“非常谨慎”地利用剩余的少量产能。与此同时，美国钻探商得出结论，创纪录的利润和现金流最好用于股票回购和分红，而不是部署更多钻机。
Diamondback能源公司的首席财务官Kaes Van 't Hof在与分析师的电话会议上表示，“那里没有石油。油价每波动10美元、20美元、30美元，都不会改变我们的计划”。
目前，美国油田的日产量约为1200万桶，比一年前高出8%，但仍比疫情暴发前的最高日产量低100万桶。几乎只有埃克森美孚和雪佛龙等大型石油公司以及类似纽伯恩石油公司（Mewbourne Oil Co .）的家族企业计划大幅提高石油产量。
即便地缘政治冲突后油价飙升，以及美国政府要求增加供应，也没有吸引美国页岩油开采商回到长期以来惯用的增长模式。Smead Capital Managemen Inc.管理着48亿美元资产的比尔·斯米德（Bill Smead）说，在接连发生的原油市场崩盘之后，他们终于学会了“纪律”。
管理着约3500亿美元资产的Janus Henderson的首席能源分析师诺亚·巴雷特（Noah Barrett）表示，页岩勘探者也不愿在现有钻井计划之外进行投资，因为在成本膨胀的情况下，“效率不断下降”。
页岩钻探公司目前正在获得巨额利润。在彭博集团追踪的35家独立钻井公司中，有超过一半已经公布了季度盈利，该集团有望报告创纪录的264亿美元自由现金流。其中大部分将通过股票回购和股息返还给投资者。
Devon能源公司首席执行官Rick Muncrief表示，“对我们来说，回归增长模式似乎是一项长期任务。我们肯定没有从投资者那里得到这样的反馈”。
郝芬 译自 能源网
原文如下:
Shale Drillers Are Holding Firm on Output as Oilfield Costs Rise -Bloomberg
US shale oil drillers continue to show little sign of responding to high global prices with more production, only now it’s not just their focus on rewarding shareholders that’s holding them back, but also a preoccupation with soaring costs.
The combined oil and gas production forecasts from a dozen companies that have reported second-quarter results in recent days is barely changed from three months earlier, down just 0.6%, despite US crude prices surging to $120 a barrel this year after the war. At the same time, higher diesel, steel, chemical and labor costs have prompted the companies to raise capital budgets by 7%.
Shale executives’ unwillingness to boost production means the world oil market has effectively lost its two biggest growth engines. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries admitted to “severely limited availability of excess capacity” this week, and said what little is left can only be tapped with “great caution.” Meanwhile, US drillers have concluded that record profits and cash flows are better spent on share buybacks and dividends rather than deploying more rigs.
“There’s no oil out there,” Kaes Van’t Hof, chief financial officer of Diamondback Energy Inc., said during a conference call with analysts. “We’re not changing our plan for every $10, $20, $30 move in oil price.”
US oilfields currently pump about 12 million barrels a day, 8% higher than a year ago but still 1 million barrels a day below the pre-pandemic all-time high. Just about the only American companies planning to significantly expand output are supermajors like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. or family-owned operators such as Mewbourne Oil Co.
Even the jump in oil prices after the war , and pleas from the Adiministration for supply hikes, haven’t lured US shale drillers back to the growth mode that was long their modus operandi. They’re finally learning “discipline” after back-to-back crude-market crashes, said Bill Smead, who manages $4.8 billion at Smead Capital Managemen Inc.
Shale explorers also are unwilling to invest beyond current drilling plans because of “deteriorating efficiencies” amid cost inflation, said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages about $350 billion.
Shale drillers are reaping huge profits at the moment. With over half of the 35 independent drillers tracked in BloombergNEF having posted quarterly earnings, the group is on track to report a record $26.4 billion in free cash flow. Most of that will be funneled back to investors through buybacks and dividends.
Returning to growth mode “just seems like a real long punt for us right now,” said Rick Muncrief, Devon Energy Corp.’s CEO. “We’re certainly not getting that feedback from our investors.”
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