据彭博新闻社2022年8月5日报道,由于越来越多的迹象表明全球经济放缓抑制了需求,油价创下了今年4月初以来的最大单周跌幅。原油价格接近6个月来的最低水平。
8月5日,西得克萨斯中质原油价格报收于每桶89美元,本周收盘下跌近10%。美国汽油消费量下降,引发了对需求的担忧,而低流动性加剧了波动性。来自某欧佩克成员国的供应有所增加,帮助缩小了关键原油期货的时间套利,缓解了市场的紧张局面。
这种回落在整个石油市场都很明显。在8月5日结束的一周里,汽油期货下跌18%。与此同时,原油现货价差已经收窄,布伦特原油现货价差——两份最接近合约的价差和衡量供应的指标——从一周前的每桶逾6美元降至每桶1.73美元。
加拿大帝国商业银行私人财富管理(CIBC Private Wealth Management)高级能源交易员丽贝卡•巴宾表示:“原油价格在一周内突破多个技术位,这对超级周期的信徒来说是一场血洗。”“然而,这一行动表明,这更像是买家罢工,而不是有意义的减仓,因为买家在围绕需求的整体情况好转之前会满足于袖手旁观。”
在今年前5个月大涨之后,原油价格涨势已逆转,继6月和7月下跌之后,本月油价跌幅进一步扩大。低于平均水平的交易量加剧了抛售,这可能会在一定程度上缓解全球经济中的通胀压力,这些压力已促使包括美联储(FED)在内的各国央行加息。
李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下:
Oil and Gasoline Futures Down Over 10% on the Week
Oil posted the biggest weekly decline since early April on growing signs that a global economic slowdown is curbing demand. Prices are near the lowest level in six months.
West Texas Intermediate settled at $89 a barrel, ending the week nearly 10% lower. US gasoline consumption has dropped, stoking demand concerns, while low liquidity has added to volatility. Supplies from one certain member of OPEC also picked up, helping to shrink key oil futures time-spreads and ease the tightness in the market.
The pullback is evident across the oil market. Gasoline futures are down 18% this week. Meanwhile, physical oil differentials have narrowed and Brent’s prompt spread -- the difference between its two nearest contracts and a gauge of supply -- shrunk to $1.73 a barrel in backwardation, down from more than $6 a week ago.
“Crude broke several technical levels in a week that has been a bloodbath for super-cycle believers,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “The action, however, indicates that this was more of a buyers’ strike than meaningful position reduction, as buyers are content to sit on the sidelines until the broader narrative around demand improves.”
After surging in the first five months of the year, crude’s rally has been thrown into reverse, with losses deepening this month after declines in June and July. The selloff, which has been exacerbated by below-average trading volumes, may alleviate some of the inflationary pressures coursing through the global economy that have spurred central banks including the US Federal Reserve to hike rates.
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