今年美国页岩油生产商将面临100多亿美元衍生物对冲损失

今年美国页岩油生产商将遭受超过100亿美元的衍生物对冲损失  

勘探和生产公司通常使用衍生物对冲来限制现金流风险，确保运营资金 

今年42%的美国运营商有预估产量在WTI原油均价55美元时产生对冲

据美国油价网8月16日报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究显示，如果油价维持在每桶100美元左右，今年美国页岩油生产商将遭受超过100亿美元的衍生物对冲损失。许多页岩油运营商通过衍生物对冲来抵消风险敞口，帮助他们更有效地筹集运营资金。那些去年在较低价格进行对冲的投资者将遭受重大相关损失，因为他们的合约意味着他们无法从天价中获利。

尽管有这些对冲损失，但美国陆上勘探和生产公司在本财报季普遍报告了创纪录的现金流和净利润。根据目前的高油价，这些运营商正在调整他们的战略，并就今年下半年和2023年的合同进行谈判，因此，如果明年油价下跌，这些灵活的勘探和生产公司将能够获得资金，并可能拥有更强劲的财务状况。 

由于预计到这些套期保值措施会带来巨大的负面影响，页岩油运营商在今年上半年采取了一致行动，降低风险敞口，限制对资产负债表的影响。

许多页岩油运营商已经成功地商定了2023年合约的更高上限，根据目前报告的对冲活动，即使在原油价格为每桶100美元的情况下，亏损总额也将仅为30亿美元，比今年大幅下降。以每桶85美元计算，对冲损失将达到15亿美元；如果油价进一步下跌至65美元，对冲活动将成为运营商的净收益。

勘探和生产公司通常会使用衍生物对冲来限制现金流风险，确保运营资金。然而，大宗商品衍生物对冲并不是运营商使用的唯一风险管理策略。Rystad分析研究了美国28家轻质致密油（LTO）生产商，他们预测的今年石油产量占美国页岩油预计总产量的近40%。其中，21家运营商详细列出了截至8月份的今年对冲头寸。这28家轻质致密油生产商涵盖了该行业的所有公开对冲活动，因为大型企业不会将衍生物对冲作为一种融资策略，而私人运营商也不会公开披露自己的对冲交易。  

Rystad副总裁Alisa Lukash说：“面对巨额亏损，运营商已疯狂地调整了他们今明两年的对冲策略，以尽量减少损失。因此，我们可能还没有看到该行业的现金流峰值，考虑到最近几周飙升的财务报告，这很难让人相信。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Faces More Than $10 Billion In Hedging Losses

·     U.S. shale oil producers are in line to suffer more than $10 billion in derivative hedging losses this year.

·     E&Ps typically employ derivative hedging to limit cash flow risks and secure funding for operations.

·     Rystad: operators currently have 42% of their total guided and estimated oil output for 2022 hedged at a WTI average floor of $55 per barrel.

U.S. shale oil producers are in line to suffer more than $10 billion in derivative hedging losses this year if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, Rystad Energy research shows. Many shale operators offset their risk exposure through derivative hedging, helping them to raise capital for operations more efficiently. Those who hedged at lower prices last year are in line to suffer significant associated losses as their contracts mean they cannot capitalize on sky-high prices.

Despite these hedging losses, record-high cash flow and net income have been widely reported by US onshore exploration and production (E&P) companies this earnings season. These operators are now adapting their strategies and negotiating contracts for the second half of 2022 and 2023 based on current high prices, so if oil prices fall next year, these agile E&Ps will be able to capitalize and will likely boast even stronger financials.

Anticipating the significant negative impact of these hedges, shale operators made a concerted effort in the first half of this year to lower their exposure and limit the impact on their balance sheets.

Many operators have successfully negotiated higher ceilings for 2023 contracts and based on current reported hedging activity for next year, even at a crude price of $100 per barrel, losses would total just $3 billion, a significant drop from this year. At $85 per barrel, hedged losses would total $1.5 billion; if it fell further to $65, hedging activity would be a net earner for operators.

E&Ps typically employ derivative hedging to limit cash flow risks and secure funding for operations. However, commodity derivative hedging is not the only risk management strategy operators use. Rystad Energy’s analysis looked at a peer group of 28 US light tight oil (LTO) producers, whose collective guided 2022 oil production accounts for close to 40% of the expected US shale total. Of this group, 21 operators have detailed their 2022 hedging positions as of August. The group includes all public hedging activity in the sector as supermajors do not employ derivative hedging as a funding strategy, and private operators do not disclose their hedges publicly.

“With huge losses on the table, operators have been frantically adapting their hedging strategies to minimize losses this year and next. As a result, we may not have seen peak cash flow in the industry yet, which is hard to believe given the soaring financials reported in recent weeks,” says Rystad Energy vice president Alisa Lukash.