据钻机地带9月5日报道，根据惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司发布的一份新报告显示，该公司再次维持布伦特原油价格预测不变。
该报告强调，该公司仍认为布伦特原油2022年均价为105美元/桶，2023年100美元/桶，然后在2024年和2025年降至88美元/桶，2026年降至85美元/桶。这些价格预测与该公司8月和7月的预测一致。
该公司最新的价格预测是在布伦特经历了动荡的几周后做出的，布伦特原油在8月29日收于每桶105.09美元，9月1日收于每桶92.36美元。布伦特原油的2022年迄今最高收盘价是3月8日，收于每桶127.98美元。到目前为止，该商品在2022年的最低收盘价为1月3日每桶78.98美元。
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究分析师在该公司最新报告中表示，我们本月维持布伦特原油价格预测不变，2022年均价为105美元/桶，2023年100美元/桶。并补充道，我们的基本面前景大致保持不变，尽管前景面临的广泛风险继续上升且价格仍然波动。
在报告中，分析师们强调了布伦特原油价格的波动，并指出，造成油价高波动性的一个关键因素是持续的低流动性。
这些分析师表示，石油交易的风险，加上提交抵押品和满足保证金要求的困难，削弱了流动性，使市场容易受到频繁的大幅价格波动的影响。分析师补充称，与此同时，布伦特原油正被相互冲突的价格驱动因素所左右，目前供应和需求方面的前景都高度不确定。我们预计短期内波动性不会减弱，我们认为上行和下行的风险大致平衡。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶95.57美元。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Offers Latest Oil Price Prediction
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has left its Brent crude forecast unchanged again, a new report from the company has revealed.
The company still sees the Brent price averaging $105 per barrel in 2022 and $100 per barrel in 2023, before dropping to $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026, the report highlighted. These price predictions are identical to company forecasts made in August and July.
The company’s latest price projections come after a volatile few weeks for Brent, which has seen the commodity close at $105.09 per barrel on August 29 and $92.36 per barrel on September 1. Brent’s highest close in 2022, so far, was seen on March 8, at $127.98 per barrel. The lowest the commodity has closed in 2022, so far, is $78.98 per barrel, on January 3.
“We have left our Brent crude price forecast unchanged this month, at an average of $105 per barrel in 2022 and $100 per barrel in 2023,” Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research analysts stated in the company’s latest report.
“Our fundamental outlook remains broadly unchanged, although a broad range of risks to the outlook continue to rise and prices remain volatile,” the analysts added.
In the report, the analysts highlighted swings in Brent and noted that a key factor in the high volatility seen in prices is the ongoing low liquidity.
“The riskiness of oil trading combined with difficulties in posting collateral and meeting margin calls has sapped liquidity, leaving the market vulnerable to large and frequent price swings,” the analysts stated.
“Meanwhile Brent is being torn between conflicting price drivers, with both the supply and demand-side outlooks highly uncertain at this stage. We do not expect volatility to abate in the near term and see the risks to our outlook as being broadly balanced to the upside and the down,” the analysts added.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $95.57 per barrel.
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