能源转型如今已不可阻挡

据美国钻井网站2022年9月1日报道，能源转型的转折点究竟发生在什么时候还有待商榷，但自2015年签署《巴黎协定》以来，一系列宏观变化结合在一起，最终推动一场如今已不可阻挡的能源转型。

澳大利亚沃利公司氢气部门副总裁汉斯·迪特尔·赫尔墨斯表示，人们对气候相关风险的意识不断增强，对能源安全和供应的政治和社会兴趣日益浓厚，股东和投资者对ESG绩效的压力，以及公司做出重大减排承诺，这些都是切实的结果。

赫尔墨斯说：“在技术方面也有重大进展，可再生能源的成本大幅下降，在许多地方，可再生能源提供了最低成本的能源选择。”

赫尔墨斯补充说：“当然，这绝不是一种能源供应解决方案向另一种能源供应解决方案的简单转移，即使在一个净零排放的世界里，我们仍然可以看到大量的石油和天然气被用于能源和化学原料，以抵消、碳捕获使用和存储以及直接空气捕获处理产生的排放。”

那么，这对石油和天然气意味着什么呢? 根据赫尔墨斯的说法，有四个关键领域对该行业产生了影响。

赫尔墨斯概述，首先是能源巨头向“能源”公司的持续多样化，包括更清洁、更低排放的燃料，电力行业（包括电动汽车、电子燃料、充电基础设施，甚至零售公司），以及低排放氢等跨部门领域。

赫尔墨斯指出，第二是减少当前作业和计划开发的温室气体排放，第三是对最终减少石油和天然气需求以实现全球净零碳排放目标的响应。 

国际能源署预测，全球石油需求最终将下降，尽管下降的速度还不确定。

赫尔墨斯补充说：“虽然油气上游的资本投资在短期内将会增加，但我们预计将会看到基于生产成本和碳强度项目的谨慎选择以及持续关注资本高效项目的交付。”

最后，赫尔墨斯透露，石油和天然气行业的另一个关键影响领域是将技能转移到新能源转型领域。 

他说：“石油和天然气行业拥有重要的专业知识，这对实现净零世界至关重要，包括海上资产、管道、复杂加工厂和设备、钻井和地下/海底工程的设计、安装和操作。”

赫尔墨斯补充说：“达到净零排放的基础设施部署的规模是令人吃惊的，根据普林斯顿大学的净零美国研究，仅在美国就需要10万亿美元，所有技能都将因此受到高需求。”

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Energy Transition Now Unstoppable

It is debatable exactly when the tipping point occurred, but a series of macro changes have combined since the 2015 Paris Agreement to ultimately drive an energy transition that is now unstoppable.

That’s according to Hans Dieter Hermes, the VP of Hydrogen at Worley, who told Rigzone that rising awareness of climate related risk, more intense political and social interest in energy security and supply, shareholder and investor pressure on ESG performance, and companies making significant emissions reduction commitments are tangible outcomes of this.

“There has also been significant movement in technology, with the cost of renewable energy falling dramatically to the point where, in many locations, they offer the lowest cost energy option,” Hermes said.

“Of course, it’s never a simple transfer of one energy supply solution to another, and even in a net-zero world we still see significant quantities of oil and gas being used for energy and chemical feedstocks with offsets, carbon capture use and storage and direct air capture dealing with the emissions produced,” he added.

So what does this mean for oil and gas? Well, according to Hermes, there are four key areas of impact on the sector.

The first is the continued diversification of energy majors into “energy” companies, including into cleaner and lower emissions fuels, the electricity industry (including e-mobility, e-fuels, charging infrastructure and even retail companies), and cross-sector areas such as low emissions hydrogen, Hermes outlined.

The second is the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from current operations and planned developments and the third is the response to the eventual reduction in demand for oil and gas required to meet global net zero objectives, Hermes pointed out. 

“The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil demand will eventually decline, though the speed of this decline is not certain,” he said.

“While capital investment in upstream oil and gas will increase in the short term, we expect to see careful project selection based on cost of production and carbon intensity coupled with a continued focus on capital-efficient project delivery,” he added.

Finally, Hermes revealed that another key area of impact on the sector is the transfer of skills into new energy transition areas.

“The oil and gas industry has significant expertise which will be pivotal to meeting a net-zero world, including the design, installation and operation of offshore assets, pipelines, complex process plant and equipment, drilling and underground/undersea engineering,” he said. 

“The scale of infrastructure deployment to reach net-zero is staggering, $10 trillion in the U.S. alone according to the Net Zero America study of Princeton, and all of the skills will be as a consequence in high demand,” he added.