据天然气资讯8月24日消息称，数据与咨询公司雷斯塔能源的研究显示，随着全球能源危机的加深和各国争相获取可靠的能源，对新液化天然气基础设施的投资将激增，到2024 年每年将达到420亿美元。这些新建投资是2020年金额的200倍，当时由于疫情影响而对液化天然气开发的投资仅为20亿美元。然而，随着各国政府逐步摆脱对化石燃料的依赖，并加快对低碳能源基础设施的投资，预计2024年之后的项目审批将大幅减少。
天然气是许多国家发电系统的核心组成部分，尽管各国决心减少对化石燃料的依赖，并向低碳电力结构过渡，但对液化天然气的需求在短期内将会增长。从现在到2030年，全球天然气需求预计将激增12.5%，从约4万亿立方米增至约4.5万亿立方米。雷斯塔能源表示，美洲的天然气需求将在2030年之前保持相对平稳。相比之下，在强劲的经济增长和各国政府的倡导天然气推广的政策支持下，亚太地区的天然气需求将大幅增长30%，到2030年将从9000亿立方米增长到约1.16万亿立方米。到2030年，以美国为主的美洲地区将占累计天然气需求的30%，而亚太地区将占25%。
预计未来几年液化天然气总供应量将几乎翻一番，从2021年的约3.8亿吨/年增长到2030年的约6.36亿吨/年，其中有几个大型液化天然气项目已经在建或正在建设中。预计2034年液化天然气产量将达到7.05亿吨/年的峰值。
曹海斌 摘译自 天然气资讯
原文如下：
Rystad Energy: Global LNG investments will peak at US$42 billion in 2024
As the global energy crisis deepens and countries scramble to secure reliable energy sources, investments in new LNG infrastructure are set to surge, reaching US$42 billion annually in 2024, Rystad Energy research shows. These greenfield investments are 200 times the amount in 2020 when just US$2 billion was invested in LNG developments due to the pandemic. However, project approvals after 2024 are forecast to fall off a cliff as governments transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate investments in low-carbon energy infrastructure.
Natural gas is a core component of many countries’ power generation systems and, although there is a determination to reduce fossil fuel dependency and transition to a low-carbon power mix, demand for LNG is set to grow over the short term. Global gas demand is expected to surge 12.5% between now and 2030, from approximately 4 trillion m3 to approximately 4.5 trillion m3. Gas demand in the Americas will remain relatively flat up to 2030, according to Rystad Energy. In contrast, on the back of strong economic growth and pro-gas policies from governments, regional demand in Asia and the Pacific will soar, growing 30% from approximately 900 billion m3 to approximately 1.16 trillion m3 by 2030. The Americas – primarily the US – will account for 30% of cumulative gas demand by 2030, while Asia-Pacific will account for 25%.
Helped by this new infrastructure, total LNG supply is expected to almost double in the coming years, growing from approximately 380 million tpy in 2021 to approximately 636 million tpy in 2030, with several major LNG projects already underway or in the pipeline. LNG production is predicted to peak at 705 million tpy in 2034.
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