据油价网8月24日报道，美国全国平均油价在5月初达到每加仑5.02美元的峰值后，已连续70天下跌，周三跌至每加仑3.88美元，创下20年来第二长的连续跌势。
但专家们现在警告称，消费者不应该被误导，产生一种错误的信心，认为跌势会持续下去。CIBC Private Wealth高级能源交易员丽贝卡•巴宾（Rebecca Babin）在接受雅虎财经（Yahoo Finance Live）采访时警告称，有两个因素可能给天然气价格带来上行压力:储量和制裁。
巴宾表示，即使汽油需求下降，供应也会随之下降，但不会出现大幅回落。全国汽油价格可能会自此上涨。
巴宾指出，政府大规模释放石油储备的计划将于11月结束，而欧洲将于12月实施制裁。她认为，这两个因素都可能减少石油供应，推高价格，并波及汽油。更重要的是，这将与北美的取暖油季节相吻合，这意味着炼油商将更倾向于将原油制成取暖油，而不是汽油。
自本周开始以来，原油价格一直在削减稍早前的损失，此前沙特石油大臣表示，当前的熊市可能需要欧佩克+收紧产量，因为期货价格没有反映供需基本面。
这位负责人警告称，期货市场的极端波动性和缺乏流动性正在以不符合正常供需因素的方式影响价格，这可能会促使欧佩克+采取行动。
彭博评论专栏作家Javier Blas表示，油价100美元的可能性更大，称之为价格下限，欧佩克+看跌期权的回归，或者简单地说，是一条底线。不管如何用文字描述这个底线，利雅得的干预表明倾向于将油价保持在100美元左右。
郝芬 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Lagging Demand Won’t Keep Gas Prices From Soaring Again
After peaking in early-May at $5.02 per gallon, U.S. national average gas prices have declined for 70 straight days to trade at $3.88 per gallon on Wednesday, marking the second-longest losing streak in two decades.
But experts are now warning that consumers should not be lulled into a false sense of confidence thinking the cuts will last. In an interview with Yahoo Finance Live, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, has warned that two factors could put upward pressure on gas prices: reserves and sanctions.
“Even if demand dips [for gasoline], supply will dip with it, and I don’t see a significant pullback. If anything, I think that gasoline prices on the national average will probably rise from here,” Babin has said.
Babin notes the giant SPR release of oil reserves by the Biden administration is set to end in November while Europe is due to implement sanctions in December. She argues that both factors could cut oil supply, pushing prices higher and rippling through to gasoline. Compounding matters is the fact that this will coincide with the heating oil season in North America, meaning refiners will be more inclined to make crude into heating oil instead of gasoline.
Since the beginning of the week, crude oil prices have been paring back earlier losses after Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the current bear market may require OPEC+ to tighten production because futures prices do not reflect underlying fundamentals of supply and demand.
"Extreme volatility and lack of liquidity in the futures market are moving prices in ways that do not conform to normal supply and demand factors, which may spark OPEC+ to take action,’ the Saudi oil chief warned.
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas says $100 oil just got a lot more likely following bin Salman’s comments: “Call it a price floor, the return of the OPEC+ put or, simply, a line in the sand. Whatever its name, Riyadh’s intervention indicates a preference to keep oil near $100.
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