美国石油工业将不会停止增加油气产量

北美石油工业的油气产量增加速度快于预期  

油气企业最大的担忧不再是经济滑入衰退的可能性，而是足够的设备供应  

雷斯塔能源公司高级分析师罗布·马西说，“我们开始涉足一个前所未有的领域”

据油价网9月8日报道，在欧洲，对经济可能陷入深度衰退的担忧仍在继续。 与此同时，这些担忧似乎在北美逐渐平息——至少在石油工业是这样。相反，页岩和油砂产量又回到了增加模式。  

这是斯伦贝谢公司的说法。斯伦贝谢公司首席执行官本周表示，北美石油工业油气产量的增加速度快于预期，油气公司现在最大的担忧不再是经济滑入衰退的可能性，而是足够的设备供应。  

在疫情导致的供应链混乱最严重的时期过去以后，设备供应安全问题似乎仍在持续。据彭博社报道，9月早些时候，由于供应短缺，许多公司难以获得提高产量所需的水力压裂设备。  

报告指出，包括哈里伯顿公司在内的众多油田服务供应商正在“翻新”现有设备，而不是新建设备，因为他们担心再次出现经济低迷会使此类投资变得毫无意义。短缺的设备包括水力压裂泵和水力压裂人员，而劳动力短缺也在疫情后持续。 

挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）高级分析师Rob Mathey告诉彭博社说：“我们在某种程度上正处于前所未有的领域。”他说，这种设备供应状况“将真正导致勘探与生产试图增加产量的问题”。

不过，斯伦贝谢公司首席执行官奥利维尔·拉·佩奇本周谈话的语气要乐观得多。据路透社报道，佩奇日前在一次行业活动上表示，“设备需求势头巨大”，并补充称，油气工业的投资率“是我很长一段时间以来从未见过的”。

还有更多迹象显示，美国石油工业的乐观情绪正在恢复。最近高露洁能源公司和百年资源开发公司的合并就是其中之一。 高露洁能源公司的所有者认为，美国石油产量将会继续增加，这是因为二叠纪远景区一部分的特拉华盆地的低成本页岩探区。

詹姆斯·沃尔特告诉彭博社，随着时间的推移，北美最好的库存逐渐耗尽，库存增加将变得更加困难。与其他盆地相比，特拉华盆地有更大的运营空间和更多的顶尖未开发的库存。

尽管斯伦贝谢公司和高露洁能源公司表现出乐观情绪，但美国能源信息署（EIA）刚刚将美国明年的原油日产量预期下调了大约7万桶至1263万桶。虽然修正幅度不大，但这个数据表明，全面增加仍存在障碍。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

The U.S. Oil Industry Won’t Stop Growing

·     The North American oil industry is growing faster than expected

·     Companies' biggest worry is no longer the possibility of the economy sliding into a recession but the supply of enough equipment.

·    "We're kind of in unprecedented territory here," Rob Mathey, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, said.

In Europe, fears of a potentially deep recession continue to take hold. Meanwhile, these fears seem to have subsided in North America—at least in the oil industry. Instead, it's back to growth mode for the shale patch and the oil sands.

This is according to Schlumberger, whose chief executive said this week that activity in the North American oil industry was growing faster than expected, with companies' biggest worry no longer the possibility of the economy sliding into a recession but the supply of enough equipment.

The equipment security seems to have lingered after the worst of the pandemic-driven supply chain chaos subsided. Bloomberg reported that many companies struggled to secure the fracking equipment they need earlier this month because of the short supply.

The report noted that oilfield service providers, including Halliburton, were "reconditioning" existing equipment rather than building new because of their wariness of another downturn that would make such an investment pointless. Among the things that are in short supply are frack pumps and frack crews: the labor shortage has also lingered after the pandemic.

"We're kind of in unprecedented territory here," Rob Mathey, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, told Bloomberg. This supply situation, he said, "is going to really lead to issues with E&Ps trying to grow."

Schlumberger's Olivier La Peuch, however, sounded on a much more optimistic note this week. "There is huge momentum," he said at an industry event as quoted by Reuters, adding that investment rates in the industry were "something I've not seen for quite some time."

There are also more signs of returning optimism in the U.S. oil industry. The recent merger between Colgate Energy and Centennial Resource Development is one of them. The owners of Colgate Energy believe that U.S. oil production is going to grow, and it's going to grow because of the low-cost shale acreage in the Delaware Basin, part of the Permian play.

"Growth gets harder over time as the best inventory in North America gets depleted," James Walter told Bloomberg. "The Delaware has more room to run and more top-tier undeveloped inventory than any other basin."

Yet despite the upbeat sentiment demonstrated by Schlumberger and Colgate Energy, the Energy Information Administration just revised down its production outlook for 2023 by some 70,000 barrels daily to 12.63 million bpd. While not a huge revision, the figure suggests there are still obstacles to all-out growth.