渣打银行：石油市场并没有崩溃 只是对供应过剩的反应

最近的抛售并不意味着石油市场崩溃

市场“运转良好”，简单的答案是“石油市场急剧转向过剩”

第三季度石油市场过剩为182万桶/天

据油价网9月15日报道，渣打银行大宗商品分析师表示，由于油价持续暴跌，原油产量意外增加和战略石油储备再次释放引发了最新一轮抛售，但石油市场并没有从根本上崩溃，而只是对市场石油过剩做出反应。  

渣打银行周四在其最新的大宗商品市场报告中表示，全球石油市场目前处于供应过剩状态，第三季度美国平均每天将向商业库存转移83万桶石油。 

渣打银行的分析师估计第三季度的石油过剩为每天182万桶，并指出预测——尤其是来自美国投资银行的预测——表明油价可能达到每桶150美元是错误的预测，市场“还没有完全反映出这种假设被证明是错误的程度”。

尽管预测者将近期油价暴跌归咎于市场机制失灵、波动、交易商非理性和流动性不足，但渣打银行分析师表示，石油市场“运转良好”，简单的答案是“石油市场急剧转向过剩”。  

渣打银行在报告中写道，如今，“由于全球石油供应大量过剩，以及这些转移可用于重建库存，美国第三季度的石油数据主要是看跌的，”并补充称，“美国能源信息署最新发布的数据延续了这一趋势，美国石油数据空头下降8.3，至非常看跌的-70.0。”

渣打银行将9月份需求的初步迹象描述为“疲弱”，指出“除其他油类外，所有产品的需求均同比下降”。其中馏分油数据尤其疲弱，库存增加422万桶，隐含需求为20个月来最低。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

The Oil Market Isn’t Broken, It’s Just Responding To A Supply Surplus

·     Standard Chartered: The latest selloff doesn’t mean the market is broken.

·     Standard Chartered analysts say the market is “well-functioning” and the simple answer is a “sharp swing into surplus”.

·     StanChart analysts estimate the Q3 surplus at 1.82 million barrels per day.

As oil prices continue to plunge, with the latest selloff triggered by a surprise crude build and another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered say the oil market is not fundamentally broken but is rather merely responding to a surplus. 

In its latest commodities market update on Thursday, StanChart says that the global oil market is currently in excess supply, with the U.S. transferring an average 0.83 million barrels per day (mb/d) into commercial inventories in the third quarter. 

StanChart analysts estimate the Q3 surplus at 1.82 million barrels per day, and suggest that forecasts–notably from U.S. investment banks–that were indicating the potential for $150 oil were wrong and that the market “has not yet fully priced in the extent to which that assumption proved wrong”. 

While forecasters have blamed market mechanism failures, volatility, trader irrationality and low liquidity for the recent plunge in oil prices, Standard Chartered analysts say the market is “well-functioning” and the simple answer is a “sharp swing into surplus”.  

Now, “with a large global flow surplus and those transfers available to rebuild inventories, US oil data has been mainly bearish in Q3,” Standard Chartered writes, adding that “The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) release continues that trend, with our US oil data bull-bear falling 8.3 w/w to a highly bearish -70.0.” 

Standard Chartered described early indications of September demand as “weak”, noting that “demand for all products is lower y/y except other oils. The distillate data was particularly weak, with a sharp 4.22mb inventory build and the lowest implied demand in 20 months.”