据美国钻井网站报道，亚太地区将继续引领全球电力市场的增长，在未来十年里为可再生能源增长创造1.8万亿美元的机会。
能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹表示，在过去20年里，亚太地区的电力需求增长了200%。2021年，亚太地区的电力需求上升到全球总需求的近一半，市场扩大了了6.5%——远远超过世界其他地区。
到2040年前，亚太地区的电力需求将平均年增长2.5%，几乎是其他地区的两倍。由于化石燃料重要性的下降和亚太地区的脱碳，太阳能和风能将有巨大增长的机会。但即使电力需求攀升，电价飙升，可再生能源开发商面临的风险也在增加，供应链、紧缩、融资和政策风险都在上升。更不确定的是，在爆发地缘政治冲突后，天然气和液化天然气的前景发生了显著变化。
与其他地区一样，亚太地区的发电成本正在上升。自去年第二季度以来，LNG、煤炭、燃料油和柴油价格都大幅上涨。
总的说来，未来3年亚太地区的发电成本每年将达到6500亿美元，比去年增加三分之二。最终用户将承受电价上涨的冲击，电价将上涨27%，到2025年的未来3年，总费用将增加1.7万亿美元。
在价格上涨的支持下，亚太地区的电力市场将在未来十年吸引2.9万亿美元的投资。可再生能源将成为主要受益者：所需投资的60%（或1.8万亿美元）将流向清洁能源。 风能和太阳能将占据最大份额。
同时，到2050年前，化石燃料在能源结构中的占比将从现在的67%逐渐下降到不足三分之一。 许多成长型市场仍然依赖煤炭，但随着整个地区的脱碳目标已经确定，重点正在转向可再生能源。
伍德麦克兹相信有巨大的机会，但也看到挑战在增加。随着供应链和融资成本的上升以及电网整合问题的恶化，可再生能源开发商面临的风险越来越大。缩减开支也对收入构成风险。到2030年前，一些市场的太阳能和风能装机容量将达到电网峰值负荷的90%。然而在储能方面的投资还不够——到本十年结束时，储能水平将仅为电网峰值负荷的15%。
考虑到可再生能源的全部成本——包括传输、电池存储和天然气峰值储备装置——它们目前在亚太地区无法与煤炭竞争。
尽管如此，亚太地区的发展方向是明确的。未来10年，亚太地区新增年发电能力平均将达到327吉瓦，其中太阳能和风能将达到200吉瓦。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Renewables In Asia Pacific A $1.8 Trillion Opportunity
Asia Pacific continues to set the pace for power market growth, creating a $1.8 trillion opportunity for renewables in the next decade.
Wood Mackenzie said that Asia Pacific has had a 200% increase in power demand over the past two decades. Power demand in the region rose to nearly half the global total in 2021, as the market expanded by 6.5% – far outpacing the rest of the world.
By 2040, APAC’s power demand growth will average 2.5%, nearly double the rate of other regions and there will be huge opportunities for solar and wind as fossil fuels decrease in importance and the region decarbonizes. But even as demand for electricity climbs and power prices soar, risks to renewables developers are mounting with supply chain, curtailment, financing, and policy risks on the rise. Adding more uncertainty, the outlook for gas and LNG has changed significantly in the wake of the war .
As in other regions, Asia Pacific’s power generation costs are going up. LNG, coal, fuel oil, and diesel prices have all dramatically increased since the second quarter of 2021.
Overall, generation costs will be $650 billion more each year for the next three years – a two-thirds increase in 2021 numbers. End users will bear the brunt of these hikes, with power set to be 27% more expensive, or a total of $1.7 trillion more over the next three years to 2025.
Supported by price inflation, Asia Pacific’s power market sector will attract $2.9 trillion in investment in the next decade. Renewables will be a major beneficiary: 60% of the investments – or $1.8 trillion – needed will go into clean energy. Wind and solar will make up the lion’s share.
Meanwhile, fossil fuels will decline gradually from 67% of the power mix today to less than a third by 2050. Many growth markets still rely on coal – but with decarbonization targets now set across the region, the emphasis is on shifting to renewables.
Woodmac believes that there were huge opportunities to play for, but also sees that the challenges were mounting.
Renewable developers are increasingly exposed to risk as supply chain and financing costs rise and grid integration issues worsen. Curtailment also poses a risk to revenue. Solar and wind capacity is heading towards 90% of peak grid load in some markets by 2030. And not enough is being invested in storage – by the end of this decade, storage levels will only be at 15% of peak grid load.
Considering the full costs of renewables – including transmission, battery storage, and gas peaker reserve units – they are not currently competitive with coal in the region.
Nonetheless, the direction of travel is clear. Asia Pacific will add an average of 327 GW/year of new power generation capacity in the next decade, with solar and wind hitting 200 GW/year.
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