据油价网2022年9月27日报道，由于全球经济前景不断恶化，高盛公司周二下调了其对油价的预测，尽管高盛公司仍然看好石油。
高盛公司表示，它对油价仍持乐观态度，考虑到石油市场“极度紧张”的状态，油价预计可能会从当前水平上涨。高盛公司指出，美元走强和需求预期走弱将“对油价构成强大的阻力，直至年底”。
高盛公司分析师Damien Courvalin和Callum Bruce周二在给客户的报告中表示，然而，由于缺乏投资、备用产能和库存较低，结构性看涨的供应结构只会变得更加强劲，这必然要求价格大幅上涨。
高盛公司预计，今年最后三个月布伦特原油的平均价格将为每桶100美元，低于其此前预测的每桶125美元，而此前预测的每桶130美元已经有所下降。目前布伦特原油价格接近每桶86美元。
高盛公司预计明年布伦特原油均价可能为每桶108美元，也低于其此前预测的每桶125美元。
高盛公司表示：“只有出现经济硬着陆，才能证明价格持续走低是合理的。”
至于欧佩克，高盛公司预计该组织在今年剩余时间内将把产量维持在当前水平附近，不过在即将到来的10月5日会议上，如果出现大幅减产，将引发油价反弹。
高盛公司建议客户购买2024年12月到期的布伦特原油期货合约。高盛公司全年都持乐观态度，即使在多次下调油价预测的情况下也是如此。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Goldman Sachs Drops Oil Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast on Tuesday on the deteriorating global economic outlook—although it remained bullish on oil.
Goldman said it remained bullish, anticipating that oil prices would likely rise from the current levels given the state of the “critically tight” market. The group cited the strong dollar and weakening demand forecast, which will “remain powerful headwinds to prices into year-end. Yet, the structural bullish supply set-up -- due to the lack of investment, low spare capacity and inventories -- has only grown stronger, inevitably requiring much higher prices.” Goldman Sachs analysts Damien Courvalin and Callum Bruce said in a note to clients on Tuesday.
Goldman Sachs sees the price of Brent crude oil averaging $100 per barrel over the last three months of the year—down from its previous bullish forecast of $125 per barrel, which was already down from yet another forecast of $130 per barrel. Currently, Brent is trading near $86 per barrel.
For next year, Goldman sees Brent averaging a likely $108 per barrel, also down from its previous prediction of $125 per barrel.
“It would take an economic hard-landing to justify sustained lower prices,” Goldman said.
As for OPEC, Goldman sees the group keeping production near current levels for the remainder of the year, although any significant production cut at the upcoming Oct 5 meeting would trigger a rebound in prices.
Goldman’s recommendation to clients was to purchase Brent futures contracts that expire in December 2024. Goldman has been bullish all year, even through various downgrades to its oil price forecasts.
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