据油价网报道，加拿大皇家银行资本市场10月4日表示，到今年年底，油价将出现不对称的上行驱动因素。加拿大皇家银行资本市场持有2023年6月WTI看涨期权，价格为每桶120美元。
加拿大皇家银行资本市场全球能源战略总经理迈克尔·特兰对彭博新闻社记者表示，欧盟(EU)对海上原油进口的禁运，以及加强制裁，将推动油价走高。
特兰表示，原油期货的波动和震荡交易料将持续，但投资者应长线投资，给自己时间证实或者证伪自身观点。他还说，对经济衰退的担忧目前主导着市场情绪，但投资者应超越眼前的“瘫痪”交易，耐心等待他们的押注变为现实。
特兰对彭博新闻社记者表示，今年夏天，石油市场受担忧因素驱动，而非基本面因素驱动，WTI交易量下降了30%-40%，加剧了市场波动。
他补充称，市场波动不会很快消失。
特兰在评论周三召开的欧佩克+会议时表示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场预计欧佩克+联盟将宣布每日减产50万—100万桶，可能是减产幅度的上限。
周一，石油价格上涨超过4%，此前有报道称欧佩克+计划削减100万桶甚至更多的原油日产量。每日减产100万桶或更多可能会对油价产生影响，尽管至少自6月以来，欧佩克+的原油日产量一直低于其目标200万桶以上。
特兰对彭博新闻社记者表示，欧佩克+将继续努力支撑市场和价格。但他指出，大幅减产可能会让市场陷入两难境地，交易商会问自己，欧佩克+对真实原油实物需求有哪些是市场所不知道的。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil Analyst: Prices Will Climb Over The Next 9 Months
There are asymmetrical upside drivers for oil prices by the end of the year, according to RBC Capital Markets, which is long oil with WTI call options for June 2023 at $120 a barrel.
The increased sanctions with the EU embargo on crude oil imports by sea are set to drive oil higher, Michael Tran, managing director of Global Energy Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told BNN Bloomberg.
Volatility and choppy trading in crude oil futures are expected to continue, but investors should play the long game and give themselves time to see their view play out, Tran said. Recession fears dominate market sentiment now, but investors should look beyond the immediate ‘palsy’ trade and be patient for their bet to materialize, he added.
This summer, the oil market was driven by fears, not fundamentals, and trading volumes in WTI were 30-40% lower, which exacerbated market volatility, Tran told BNN Bloomberg.
Volatility will not go away any time soon, he added.
Commenting on the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, Tran said RBC Capital Markets expects the alliance to announce a sizeable cut of between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1 million bpd, possibly at the upper end of that range.
On Monday, oil prices rallied more than 4% after reports emerged that OPEC+ was looking to cut 1 million bpd and even more. A cut of 1 million barrels daily or more is likely to have an impact on prices, even though OPEC+ has been undershooting its target by over 2 million bpd since at least June.
OPEC+ will continue to try to support the market and prices, Tran told BNN Bloomberg. But he noted that a large cut could be a Catch-22 for the market, with traders asking themselves what OPEC+ knows about the actual physical demand that the market doesn’t.
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