据油价网10月7日报道，炼油商和交易商告诉彭博社，欧佩克+本周决定将该联盟的石油总产量目标削减200万桶/天，这无助于本已不确定的石油供应和石油贸易流动前景。
本周早些时候，OPEC+宣布了自2020年以来最大的集体减产目标，将日产量目标削减了200万桶。多数分析师估计，实际上，目前石油产量的实际削减将是这一数字的一半，约为每日100万—110万桶，主要由沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾产油国承担。
然而，石油减产势必会提高炼油企业的成本，并可能导致主要石油进口地区亚洲的供应紧张。
韩国炼油商SK Innovation的发言人Kim Woo Kyung对彭博社表示，由于美元不断走高，预计冬季燃料消耗将增加，OPEC+集团的这一举措预计将提高原油进口成本。
然而，这位发言人指出，随着经济放缓，整体石油需求可能受到冲击。
印度是世界第三大原油进口国，政府官员和炼油厂消息人士告诉彭博社，印度认为欧佩克+的减产是一次挫折。
欧佩克+的11月减产将在欧盟对原油海上进口禁令12月5日生效前几周生效。这两个因素造成了短期内石油市场供应的重大不确定性。
据称，印度已在寻求与原油生产商签订定期采购合同，预计在欧盟(EU)对进口产能大国原油的禁令生效后，贸易流将重新定向，市场将更加紧张。
分析师在OPEC会议后表示，OPEC+的减产对油价有利。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，油价将再次以高于此前预期的速度升至每桶100美元，并将其对2023年第一季度的油价预测从每桶95美元上调至100美元。高盛(Goldman Sachs)将本季度布伦特原油价格预期上调了10美元，至每桶110美元。
黎泱 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC+ Production Cut Adds To Uncertainty In Oil Markets
This week’s decision from OPEC+ to cut the alliance’s collective oil production target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) isn’t helping the already uncertain outlook of oil supply and oil trade flows, refiners and traders tell Bloomberg.
Earlier this week, OPEC+ announced the biggest cut to its collective target since 2020, slashing the production target by 2 million bpd. In reality, the actual cut from the current oil production level would be half that figure, at around 1 million bpd-1.1 million bpd, and shouldered mainly by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers, most analysts have estimated.
Yet, the oil output cut is set to raise costs for refiners and potentially tighten supply to the key oil-importing region, Asia.
The OPEC+ group’s move is expected to raise the cost of crude oil imports amid a rising U.S. dollar and expected higher fuel consumption during the winter, Kim Woo Kyung, a spokesperson for South Korean oil refiner SK Innovation, told Bloomberg.
However, the spokesperson noted that overall oil demand could be hit as economies slow.
India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, sees the OPEC+ production cut as a setback, government officials and sources at refineries told Bloomberg.
The OPEC+ production cut for November would come into force weeks before the EU embargo on imports of crude oil by sea takes effect on December 5. These two factors create major supply uncertainty in the oil market in the near term.
India is already said to be looking to lock in term purchase contracts with crude producers, expecting a redirection of trade flows and a tighter market when the EU embargo on imports of crude enters into force.
For oil prices, the OPEC+ cut is bullish, analysts said after the group’s meeting. Morgan Stanley said oil prices would rise again to $100 per barrel faster than previously estimated, and lifted its price forecast for the first quarter of 2023 to $100 from $95 per barrel. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent Crude forecast for this quarter by $10 to $110 per barrel.
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