据油价网报道，高盛投资公司将今年布伦特原油平均价格预测从每桶99美元上调至每桶104美元。 欧佩克+决定11月份日减200万桶原油产量是高盛投资银行上调今年布伦特原油价格预期的主要原因。
尽管日减200万桶原油产量只是名义数字，但欧佩克+11月份实际减产幅度将会更小，约为200万桶的一半，但高盛投资银行认为，鉴于现货石油市场的供应足够紧张，该公司有理由更新价格预测。
高盛投资银行预计，第四季度布伦特原油价格为每桶110美元，2023年第一季度将升至每桶115美元。
高盛投资银行最新报告中最乐观的部分可以说是，该行表示，如果欧佩克+将减产维持到2023年，他们对布伦特原油价格的预测可能会上升25美元。
10月6日，摩根士丹利也上调了其对布伦特原油价格的预测，将其对2023年第一季度的布伦特原油价格预期上调至100美元。根据高盛投资银行的最新预测，由于减产，明年布伦特原油的平均价格可能达到每桶110美元。
高盛投资银行分析师评论称，如此大幅度的减产将促使美国做出回应，而这种回应极有可能是进一步释放战略石油储备中的原油。
一些媒体评论人士批评说，在大多数石油消费大国都在与通货膨胀和本已短缺的能源供应作斗争之际，减少石油现货供应这是一个错误。
“石油市场的缓冲(库存和备用产能)仍然极低，油价上涨仍是解决短期库存增加和中期供应能力提高的关键可行的长期解决方案。”高盛投资银行分析师如是说。
尽管油价在10月7日早间略有下滑，但油价仍有望创下今年春季以来的最大单周涨幅。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Goldman Sachs Boosts Oil Price Predictions In Bullish Update
Goldman Sachs raised its 2022 price forecast for Brent crude from $99 to $104 per barrel. The increase was driven by the OPEC+ decision to reduce output by 2 million bpd.
Although the 2-million-barrel figure is nominal and the actual output cut would be smaller, at around half that, the bank believes the physical oil market is tight enough to justify such price forecast updates.
On a quarterly basis, Goldman sees Brent trading at $110 this quarter and rising to $115 per barrel in the first quarter of 2023.
In arguably the most bullish part of Goldman’s update, the bank said that there could be a $25 upside to their Brent forecast if OPEC+ maintains its output reduction through to 2023.
Yesterday, Morgan Stanley also raised its price forecast for Brent crude, to $100 for the first quarter of 2023. According to Goldman’s latest forecast, the average for Brent next year could be $110 per barrel as a result of the cuts.
The bank’s analysts commented that such a deep cut would prompt a response from the United States and that this response would most likely be a further release of strategic reserve crude.
According to Goldman, even the International Energy Agency might join the reserve release to keep a lid on oil prices.
Some media commentators have criticized the reduction of physical supply of oil at a time when most big consumers are struggling with inflation and an already short supply of energy. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas suggested it was a mistake.
"The oil market's buffers (stocks and spare capacity) remain critically low, and higher prices remain the key viable, long-term solution to increased inventories in the short term and higher supply capacity medium term," Goldman analysts said.
While oil prices had cooled off slightly early on Friday morning, they were still set for the largest weekly gain since Spring.
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