到2028年美国电动车市场将增长390%

随着非传统电动汽车制造商计划进军美国市场，美国市场对电动汽车(EV)生产商的吸引力越来越大。十年前，当人们想到电动汽车时，脑海中会浮现一个名字。几年过去了，消费者有大量的电动汽车选择，每年都有更多的电动汽车进入市场。在许多汽车制造商竞相开发具有竞争力的未来汽车之际，从福特(Ford)到通用汽车(GM)等主要汽车制造商已推出电动汽车系列，以应对越来越大的脱碳压力。今年早些时候，美国突破了大规模采用电动汽车的临界点，5%的新车是纯电动的。根据彭博社的一项分析，达到这一门槛标志着电动汽车开始大规模采用。2022年初，美国成为仅次于欧洲和亚洲的第三大电动汽车市场。基于这一成就，到2025年，美国四分之一的汽车销售将是全电动的，比最初的预测提前了一年。过去，人们曾用各种阈值作为电视和手机等流行电子产品的预测指标，早期采用者阶段耗时最长，随后在达到阈值后迅速转变为主流。加拿大、澳大利亚和西班牙都有望在今年达到5%的采用率。

美国电动汽车市场增长迅速，预计将从2021年的282.4亿美元增长到2028年的1374.3亿美元，年复合增长率为25.4%。2020年，该行业受到全球大流行的沉重打击，但已迅速反弹。这在很大程度上是由于在国内和国际层面上，随着充电基础设施的发展和电动汽车更具竞争力的定价，消费者和汽车制造商正在从内燃机汽车(ICE)转向电动汽车，碳排放的压力越来越大。

美国现在是全球第三大电动汽车制造商。在疫情期间暂停推出新电动汽车车型的几家汽车制造商现在终于看到供应链中断的情况有所改善，使得各种各样的汽车制造商今年得以进入电动汽车市场。电动汽车市场的这一浪潮得到了热切的消费者的响应，通用汽车(General Motor) 2022年电动汽车悍马(hummer)的预售在10分钟内售罄。福特还将全电动F-150的产量提高了50%，以应对不断增长的消费者需求。

汽车制造商正在迅速增加新的电动汽车车型，一些制造商的目标是在五年内实现全电动化。预计到2024年底，将有数十辆全电动汽车上市，这将创造一个价格和汽车功能极具竞争力的多元化电动汽车市场。《消费者报告》汽车测试中心副主任Gabe Shenhar解释说：“这些更实惠的车型有可能凭借其效率、性能和更低的购买成本，吸引相当一部分购车者购买电动汽车。”

一些在电动汽车业务上并不知名的汽车制造商正迅速崛起，成为主要的电池-电动汽车厂商，并推出了大量新车型。本田(Honda)本月宣布，计划与索尼(Sony)合作，将其索尼-本田(Sony-Honda)电动汽车合资企业引入美国市场。合作伙伴预计在2026年之前向美国和日本交付他们的电动汽车。索尼本田移动(SHM)希望在2025年接受预订，主要专注于在线销售。该公司将在北美的本田工厂生产这些汽车，并将在整个系列中提供三级自动驾驶系统。

这将有助于它与通用汽车、福特汽车和梅赛德斯-奔驰等公司竞争，这些公司也在其车辆中提供自动驾驶系统。

本田今年4月宣布，计划在2020年之前向全球市场推出30款电动汽车。当时，该公司表示将在电气化和软件技术领域投资339亿美元。索尼在电动汽车领域基本不为人知，它在拉斯维加斯2020年消费电子展(CES 2020)的新闻发布会上展示了一款电动汽车原型车，之后就很少有人知道了。不过，索尼预计将增强本田的电动汽车软件系统，以提供娱乐和其他按月收费的服务。SHM希望它的汽车能像“滚动的智能手机”一样发挥作用，尽管它还没有公布价格或电池续航时间的信息。

到目前为止，特斯拉仍然主导着美国电动汽车市场，但福特、现代、起亚、日产和雪佛兰等其他公司正在慢慢赶上。虽然特斯拉可能是最知名的电动汽车，但其他正在开发电动汽车系列的公司可能对这家电动汽车巨头具有竞争优势，因为它们计划在未来两到五年内向消费者提供更实惠、续航时间更长的电动汽车。

寿琳玲 编译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S.EV Market Set To Grow By 390% By 2028

The U.S. market is looking increasingly attractive for electric vehicle (EV) producers, as non-traditional EV manufacturers make plans to break into the market. A decade ago, when people thought of EVs one name came to mind. Fast-forward a few years and consumers have a vast array of EV options, with more coming to the market every year. Major automakers from Ford to GM have launched EV ranges, in a bid to respond to mounting pressures to decarbonise, as many car manufacturers race to develop the competitive car of the future. The U.S. crossed the tipping point for EV mass adoption earlier this year when 5 percent of all new car sales were fully electric. Hitting this threshold marked the beginning of mass EV adoption according to a Bloomberg analysis. At the beginning of 2022, the U.S. became the third biggest EV market after Europe and Asia. based on this achievement, a quarter of U.S. car sales could be all-electric by as soon as 2025, a year earlier than originally predicted. Various thresholds have been used as predictors for popular electronics such as televisions and mobile phones in the past, with the early-adopter phase taking the longest, followed by a quick shift to becoming mainstream after hitting the threshold. Canada, Australia, and Spain are all expected to achieve the 5 percent adoption mark this year. 

The U.S. EV market has expanded rapidly and is expected to grow from $28.24 billion in 2021 to $137.43 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 25.4 percent. The industry was hit hard by the global pandemic in 2020 but has rebounded rapidly. This is largely owing to increasing pressures to decarbonise at the national and international level, with consumers and automakers making the switch from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric in line with charging infrastructure developments and more competitive EV pricing. 

The U.S. is now the third-largest EV manufacturer worldwide. Several automakers that put the launch of new EV models on hold during the pandemic are now finally seeing an improvement in supply chain disruptions, allowing a wide variety of car makers to break into the EV market this year. This flood of the EV market has been met by eager consumers, with General Motor’s (GM) 2022 EV hummer pre-order selling out in 10 minutes. Ford has also increased its output of the fully electric F-150 by 50 percent in response to rising consumer demand. 

And automakers are quickly adding new EV models to their ranges, with several manufacturers aiming for fully-electrified fleets within half a decade. Dozens of all-electric vehicles are expected to launch by the end of 2024, creating a diverse EV market with highly competitive pricing and car features. Gabe Shenhar, associate director of Consumer Reports’ Auto Test Center explained, “These more affordable models have the potential to sway a significant percentage of the car-buying public toward buying an EV with their efficiency, performance, and lower ownership costs.”

And several automakers unknown for their EV business are emerging quickly as major battery-electric playerswith extensive new ranges set for market. Honda announced this month that it plans to partner with Sony to bring its Sony-Honda EV venture to the U.S. market. The partners expect to deliver their EVs to both the U.S. and Japan by 2026. Sony Honda Mobility (SHM) hopes to take pre-orders in 2025, focusing mainly on online sales. It will manufacture the vehicles at a Honda factory in North America and will offer a Level 3 autonomous driving system across the range. 

This will help it compete with companies such as Tesla, General Motors, Ford Motor Co., and Mercedes Benz which are also offering autonomous driving systems in their vehicles. 

The new venture builds upon Honda’s April announcement that its plans to deliver 30 EV models to the global market by the end of the decade. At the time, it said it would be investing $33.9 billion in electrification and software technologies. Sony is largely unknown in the EV world, presenting a prototype electric car at a press event during CES 2020 in Las Vegas, and little since. However, Sony is expected to enhance Honda’s EV software system to provide entertainment and other services that will be billed monthly. SHM hopes its vehicle will function like a ‘rolling smartphone’, although it has not yet released information about the price or battery range. 

To date, Tesla is still dominating the U.S. EV market, but other companies such as Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, and Chevrolet are slowly catching up. While Tesla might be the most well-known EV, other companies developing their EV ranges may have a competitive edge over the electric car giant, as they plan to offer consumers more affordable and longer-range EVs within the next two to five years.