据阿联酋《Khaleej时报》11月20日报道，石油市场分析师表示，尽管欧佩克+减产和欧盟对原油禁运导致全球经济出现不利影响，但油价可能很快再次回到每桶100美元以上，远早于两个月前分析师的预测。
美国能源信息署（EIA）11月的短期能源展望显示，布伦特原油现货价格今年平均每桶102.13美元，明年平均每桶95.33美元。
10月，EIA预计2022年布伦特现货平均价格将达到每桶102.09美元，2023年为每桶94.58美元，同时略微上调了2022年和2023年布伦特油价预测。
周五，由于担心需求减弱和美国利率进一步上调，油价下跌约2%。布伦特原油收于每桶87.62美元，下跌2.16美元，跌幅为2.4%，而美国西得克萨斯中质原油收于每桶80.08美元，下跌1.56美元，跌幅1.9%。
但分析师表示，看涨因素可能在近期占据上风，使油价再次升至三位数。
欧佩克+决定将截至11月的总产量目标削减200万桶/日，这确实稳定了石油市场，正如该组织所宣称的目标。布伦特原油价格稳定在90美元以上。大宗商品分析师表示，尽管为对抗通胀而大幅升息，但这方面的风险更多的是上行而非下行。
本周早些时候，盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森（Ole Hansen）在海湾情报（Gulf Intelligence）网络研讨会上表示：“油价上涨10美元比下跌10美元更为脆弱。”
谈到油价上涨10美元，风险仍在上升。
沙特阿拉伯电视台（Al Arabiya TV）报道称，欧佩克秘书长海瑟姆·加伊斯（Haitham Al Ghais）表示，该组织准备为石油市场的利益进行干预。
10月初，欧佩克+宣布计划在2022年11月将石油产量从2022年8月的要求产量水平减少200万桶。如果该计划得以实施，欧佩克10国集团成员国的产量应达到2540万桶/日，而非欧佩克国家的产量应为1640万桶。这实际上将导致欧佩克+的平均产量达到4190万桶/日。
EIA警告称，全球经济状况的恶化可能会限制石油需求的增长，“可能导致油价最终低于我们的预测”。该组织还指出，高于预测的油价可能是由于欧盟即将禁止从海运进口原油和石油产品导致供应中断。
在其最新月度报告中，欧佩克将2022年石油需求增长预测下调了10万桶/日，至255万桶/天。由于经合组织国家的需求好于预期，2022年第二季度的需求量略高于预期，目前预计2022年石油需求量将达到9960万桶/日，而2022年的第三季度和2022年第一季度的需求则因持续的地缘政治不确定性以及经合组织欧洲经济活动的减弱而被下调。
寿琳玲 编译自 阿联酋《Khaleej时报》
原文如下：
Oil prices could soon break $100
Oil prices could soon return to above $100 per barrel again, much earlier than analysts predicted two months ago, despite global economic headwinds as Opec+ output cuts and EU embargo of crude exports tightens overall supply, oil market analysts said.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now sees the Brent crude oil spot price averaging $102.13 per barrel this year and $95.33 per barrel next year, according to its November short-term energy outlook.
In October, the EIA projected that the Brent spot average would come in at $102.09 per barrel in 2022 and $94.58 per barrel in 2023, said the EIA while slightly raising its Brent oil price forecast for both 2022 and 2023.
On Friday, oil prices dropped by about two per cent due to concern about weakened demand and further hike in US interest rates. Brent crude settled at $87.62 a barrel, falling $2.16 or 2.4 per cent, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $80.08 a barrel, losing $1.56 or 1.9 per cent.
But the bullish factors could take the upper hand in the near term, sending oil prices to triple digits again, analysts say.
The Opec+ decision to cut the headline production target by two million barrels per day as of November did stabilise the oil market, as the group claims its goal is. Brent prices stabilised at above $90. The risks from here are more to the upside than to the downside, despite aggressive interest rate hikes to fight inflation, commodity analysts say.
“The oil markets are more vulnerable for a $10 move higher than lower,” Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on a Gulf Intelligence webinar earlier this week.
Talking about a $10 move in oil prices, the risk is still to the upside, Hansen added, citing the Opec+ cuts, and the EU sanctions on oil.
Opec secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais has said that the organisation is ready to intervene for the benefit of oil markets, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV reports, citing Ghais as saying that Opec is aware, cautious and monitoring economic developments worldwide.
In early October, Opec+ announced plans to reduce oil production by two million barrels in November 2022 from the August 2022 required production level. If the plan is implemented; the production of the Opec 10 group members should reach 25.4 m illion bpd while that of non-Opec producers should be 16.4 million bpd. This in effect would lead to the production of Opec+ coming to an average of 41.9 m illion bpd.
The EIA warned that weakening global economic conditions, which it said could limit oil demand growth, “create the potential for oil prices to end up lower than our forecast”. The organisation also noted that higher than forecast oil prices could stem from supply disruptions resulting from the EU’s impending bans on the seaborne import of crude oil and petroleum products.
In its latest monthly report, the Opec lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2022 by 0.1 m illion bpd to a growth of 2.55 million bpd. Oil demand is now expected to reach 99.6 million bpd in 2022 after demand for Q2-2022 was revised slightly higher amid better-thanexpected demand in the OECD countries while Q3-2022 and Q4-2022 demand were revised lower, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and weaker economic activities in OECD Europe.
Opec+ countries in October 2022 reduced oil production by 40,000 bpd and now fall behind the planned production targets by 3.22 million bpd, according to the IEA.
The volume of oil production by the members of the alliance decreased by 30,000bpd compared to September to 38.88 million bpd. At the same time, the target level of production by Opec+ countries for September reached 42.1 million bpd.
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