据油价网11月17日消息称，今年短期油价预测一直看涨，大多数预测者预计明年某个时候基准油价将突破100美元。然而，从长远来看，情况会发生变化。例如，高盛（Goldman Sachs）本周在一份报告中表示，预计油价可能会飙升至每桶125美元。其对2023年布伦特原油价格的基本预测为每桶110美元。
不过，至少惠誉解决方案认为，从长期来看，情况似乎会发生变化。该公司在一份独家分享给Rigzone的报告中表示，预计油价将从今年的102美元下降到2023年的95美元，并在2026年进一步下降到85美元。
这种预期油价将在未来三年下跌的原因是宏观经济背景，世界许多地区几个月来一直在发出衰退警告。在这种预期中，惠誉绝非个例。许多分析师预计经济将出现衰退，尽管并非所有人都对这些经济趋势导致的油价走向达成一致。
正是由于对经济衰退的担忧，欧佩克自己下调了对石油需求的预期，而今年早些时候，尽管油价上涨，石油需求仍在以健康的速度增长。然而，在最新的《石油市场月度报告》中，情况并非如此。欧佩克在报告中表示，影响油价的经济因素向下行倾斜，并将需求增长预期修正了10万桶/天。
衰退预期对油价的影响有多强烈，几乎每天都有所显现：在有关油价的媒体报道中，对衰退的担忧是任何交易时段油价下跌的原因，其频率高于其他因素。
与此同时，有关经济衰退的预测不断出现，尤其是对欧洲的预测。
贝伦贝格首席经济学家霍尔格·施米丁(Holger Schmieding)在谈到欧盟经济前景时对CNBC表示：“消费者信心大幅下降，衰退可能不会很表面。”
欧元区经济增速料将从第二季的0.8%收缩至第三季的0.2%。这仍然是一个积极的数字，但经济学家似乎对明年欧盟是否将面临重新补充天然气储存设施的挑战持怀疑态度。
路透社的约翰•坎普(John Kemp)在本月早些时候的一篇专栏文章中指出，经济衰退肯定会压低油价。他在信中说，尽管许多身居官方职位的经济学家在“衰退”这个词上转来转去，却没有真正使用这个词，但美国的经济放缓已经开始。这一点在欧盟也很明显。
那么，从现在开始的问题是，这些经济体的经济还会放缓到什么程度。它们经济恢复的速度越慢，对石油的需求破坏就越大，因此对国际价格的影响也就越大。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
Fitch: This Is The Biggest Downward Risk For Oil Markets In 2023
Short-term oil price forecasts have been persistently bullish this year, with most forecasters expecting benchmarks to top $100 sometime next year. Over the longer term, however, things change. Goldman Sachs, for instance, this week said in a note that it expected oil could surge to $125 per barrel. Its base-case forecast for 2023 is for Brent at $110 per barrel, but stronger demand if and when restrictions end could push the price even higher.
Over the longer term, things appear to change, however, at least according to Fitch Solutions. The company said in a report shared exclusively with Rigzone that it expected oil prices to fall from $102 this year to $95 in 2023 and further to $85 in 2026.
The reason for this expectation that oil will decline in price over the next three years is the macroeconomic context that has been flashing recession warnings for months in many parts of the world. In that expectation, Fitch is far from alone. A lot of analysts expect a recession, although not all of them agree on the direction oil prices are going to take as a result of these economic trends.
It was because of recession concern that OPEC itself cut its forecast for oil demand, while earlier this year, it was growing at a healthy pace despite the price rally. Not in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report, however. In it, OPEC said that the economic factors affecting oil prices were skewed to the downside and revised demand growth predictions by 100,000 bpd.
Just how strong the influence of recession expectations is on oil prices can be seen on an almost daily basis: media reports on oil prices note fears of recession as a reason for any price drop during any trading session more frequently than any other factors.
Meanwhile, forecasts about the looming recession keep coming, especially for Europe.
“Consumer confidence has plunged so badly that the recession will likely not be shallow,” the chief economist of Berenberg, Holger Schmieding, told CNBC in the context of the economic outlook for the European Union.
The euro-area economy’s growth is seen contracting from 0.8 percent in the second quarter to 0.2 percent in the third quarter. It’s still a positive number, but economists appear to have their doubts about next year when the EU will face the challenge of refilling their gas storage facilities.
A recession is a surefire way to depress oil prices, as Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a column earlier this month. In it, he said that despite many economists in official positions dancing around the word recession without actually using it, the slowdown had already begun in the United States. It is also evident in the European Union.
The question from now on, then, is just how much more those economies will slow down. The more they slow down, the greater the demand destruction in oil would be and, consequently, the greater the effect on international prices.
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