据油价网2022年11月17日报道，美国著名综合石油公司赫斯公司(Hess Corp)首席执行官约翰·赫斯日前在迈阿密举行的一次会议上表示，欧佩克“已重新坐上驾驶座”，成为全球最强大的石油生产者。
赫斯称，未来几年美国原油日产量将达到1300万桶，此后将趋于平稳，因为投资者向美国石油公司施压，要求他们把重点放在向股东返还资金上，而不是投资激进的增产战略。
赫斯说，这是我们今年大部分时间都听到的；美国石油公司对于将今年大量流入的现金用于提高产量感到不安，这不仅是在不确定的监管环境下，也是在股东继续要求谨慎的环境中——还有现金，而不是过去几年容忍的更多投资。美国能源信息署（EIA）公布的最新统计数据显示，今年8月份美国日均原油产量为1197.5万桶。 这一数字高于去年8月份的1127.7万桶/天，但低于2019年的原油产量，当时Covid-19疫情尚未严重影响原油生产。
尽管美国的原油日产量已从2020年10月的1045.7万桶 (这是美国石油行业多年来的最低点之一)小幅上升，但仍远低于2019年11月的1300万桶的峰值。但更重要的是，今年美国石油行业未能提高原油产量以应对国内库存的减少，这证明了美国完全有能力提高原油产量——这让美国失去了摇摆产油国的头衔。
在缺少美国原油产量的情况下，欧佩克默认地承担了这一角色。“页岩被认为是一个生产调节者，沙特和欧佩克一直在等待这一局面的结束。现在，欧佩克真正回到了驾驶座上，成为了全球石油生产调节者以及全球最强大的石油生产集团。”赫斯如是说，并指出欧佩克缺乏一些备用产能来轻松提高原油产量。
“我们从事的是资源业务，如果你想增加未来的自由现金流，就必须增加你的资源量。”赫斯说。
李峻编译自油价网
原文如下：
Hess: OPEC’s Back In The Driver’s Seat
OPEC is “back in the driver’s seat” as the world’s most powerful swing producer, Hess Corp CEO John Hess said on Thursday at a Miami conference.
According to Hess, U.S. crude oil production will average 13 million bpd over the next few years, where it will plateau, as investors pressure U.S. oil companies to focus on returning money to shareholders instead of investing in aggressive growth strategies.
It’s what we’ve been hearing for most of the year; U.S. oil companies are skittish about spending what has been a significant influx of cash this year on ramping up production—not only in an uncertain regulatory environment but in an environment where shareholders continue to demand prudence—and cash—not more investments, which was tolerated in years gone by U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.975 million bpd in August this year--the latest data available from the Energy Information Administration. This is up from 11.277 million bpd last August but down from 2019, before the pandemic had cut deeply into crude production.
While U.S. production has ticked up from the 10.457 million bpd in October 2020—one of the lowest points for the U.S. oil industry in years—it is still well below the 13.0 million bpd peak in November 2019. But even more importantly, this year’s failure of the U.S. oil industry to ramp up production in response to dwindling domestic inventories has been a testament to its ability to ramp up at all—stripping it of its swing producer title.
In its absence, OPEC has assumed this role by default. “Shale was thought of as a swing producer, the Saudis and the OPEC have waited this out. Now, really OPEC is back in the driver’s seat where they are the swing producer,” Hess said, pointing out that OPEC lacks some spare capacity to boost production easily.
“We are in the resource business and if you are going to grow future cash flow, you have to grow your resource,” Hess said.
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