据钻机地带11月18日报道，美国原油市场的结构正显示出近一年来首次出现供应过剩的迹象，这是最近一段石油期货市场暴跌规模的最新指标。
反映短期供需平衡的即月价差，在12月合约将于周一到期之前交易，出现期货溢价(期货溢价是对看跌市场结构的行业术语)。另一个随后的价差也变成了期货溢价。其余的仍处于相反的看涨结构，即现货溢价，表明这一走势仍可能是短期的。
市场参与者表示，此举在很大程度上可归因于期货交易员积累了大量的多头头寸，并在整体价格因需求担忧而暴跌的同时退出。潜在的现货市场疲软以及得克萨斯州管道中断和高运费等短期因素也导致了期货合约的崩溃，而西得克萨斯州中质原油期货自9月以来首次跌破80美元。
周五的暴跌也恰逢12月- 1月价差期权合约到期。如果期货溢价到期，将有近1300万桶看跌期权获利。当期权越过支付的水平时，就会刺激更多的抛售。
TP ICAP集团的能源专家斯科特·谢尔顿表示，最重要的是，除亚洲以外对石油的需求并不好，尽管美国的需求可能还不错，但美国正在努力应对管道故障，这放缓了出口，并产生了可能持续几周的疲软。市场定位正好相反，这迫使清算，使情况变得更糟。
期货溢价可以让有储油渠道的贸易商更有利可图，他们可以根据价格之间的差距程度，将石油装进油罐，并在以后的某一天出售。如果石油市场在一段时间内处于期货溢价，其还会产生所谓的换月滚动收益率，即当投资者将一个头寸从一个月滚转到下一个月时，他们往往会亏损。
最近几天，美国低硫原油价格的疲软已在现货市场显现出来。根据彭博社的公允价值数据显示，麦哲伦中流合伙人公司(Magellan Midstream Partners LP)位于东休斯敦的终端原油交易处于5月份以来的最低水平。根据数据显示，由于壳牌公司(Shell Plc)运营的一条至关重要的地区输油管道的开工率降低，二叠纪油田的产量也处于近六个月以来的低点。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
USA Oil Futures Point to Oversupply for First Time This Year
The US crude market’s structure is signaling oversupply for the first time in almost a year, the latest indicator of the scale of the dramatic slump in the nearest section of the oil futures market.
The front-month spread, which reflects short-term supply-demand balances, traded in contango -- the industry term for the bearish market structure -- ahead of the December contract’s expiry on Monday. One other subsequent spread also flipped to contango. The rest remain in the opposite bullish structure, known as backwardation, indicating the move could yet be a short-term one.
Much of the move can be attributed to futures traders amassing a bloated long position and heading for the exits at the same time as headline prices plummet due to demand worries, market participants said. Underlying physical market weakness and short-term factors such as a Texas pipeline outage and high freight rates have also led to the collapse in timespreads, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $80 for the first time since September.
Friday’s plunge also coincides with the expiry of options contracts on the December-January spread. There are almost 13 million barrels of put options that would profit if the spread expires in contango. When options move through the levels at which they pay out, they can spur additional selling.
“Bottom line here is that demand for oil out of Asia isn’t good and while it may be decent in the US, it’s struggling with the pipe outage that slows exports and generates weakness that may last for a few weeks,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “The market positioning was the exact opposite, which has forced liquidation and made this even worse.”
Contango can make it more profitable for traders with access to storage to put oil in tanks and sell at a later date, depending on the extent of the the gap between prices. If oil markets are in contango over a sustained period, it also generates so-called negative roll yield, where investors tend to lose money when they roll a position forward from one month to the next.
The weakness in US light-sweet crude prices has shown up in physical markets in recent days. Crude at Magellan Midstream Partners LP’s East Houston terminal is trading at the softest level since May, according to Bloomberg fair value data. Permian oil is also at a near-six-month low, the data show, with a vital regional oil pipeline run by Shell Plc running at reduced rates.
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