高盛将其油价预测每桶下调10美元

高盛投资公司将其油价预测每桶下调了10美元

高盛投资银行还指出，在欧盟禁运之前，石油出口增加是修正预测的一个原因

据油价网11月21日报道，高盛投资银行将其对油价的预测每桶下调了10美元，至每桶100美元。

据财经网站ForexLive报道，这家美国著名投行的分析师还指出，在下个月欧盟禁运生效前，石油出口增加是修正预测的另一个原因。  

今年的油价预测背景发生了很大变化，可以从高盛投资银行1月份的预测中看出。当时高盛投资银行曾警告称，布伦特原油可能在今年的某个时候每桶突破100美元。  

这可能比许多人预期的要早。尽管如此，在超过100美元的峰值之后，原油价格一直在下跌，并保持在三位数的阈值以下，尽管许多人认为，油价再次反弹到100美元上方只是时间问题。

高盛投资银行是乐观的预测者之一，其分析师10月早些时候表示，布伦特原油价格可能比此前预期的更早回到每桶100美元上方。 事实上，他们表示，布伦特原油价格明年可能突破每桶125美元。

一些分析师，如丹麦盛宝银行的Ole Hansen也指出，欧佩克+的减产将减少未来几个月的全球原油供应，而对石油的需求预计将在禁运期间增加。

根据总部位于沙特阿拉伯利雅得的能源智库——国际能源论坛公布的数据，由于禁运，石油供应量可能每日减少100万至300万桶，这无疑将对油价产生影响。 中国的新冠肺炎政策可能会缓解这一影响，遏制潜在的上涨。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Slashes Oil Price Forecast By $10

·     Goldman Sachs has cut its oil price forecast by $10.

·     Goldman also noted an increase in Russian oil exports ahead of the EU embargo as a cause for the forecast revision.

Goldman Sachs has cut its oil price forecast by $10 to $100 per barrel.

The investment bank’s analysts also noted the increased exports of oil before the European Union embargo goes into effect next month as another reason for the forecast revision, according to ForexLive.

Just how much the oil price forecast context has changed this year shows in Goldman’s forecasts from January, when the bank warned that Brent could top $100 per barrel at some point in 2022.

That happened perhaps earlier than many have expected. Still, after that over-$100 peak, crude oil prices have fallen and stayed below the three-digit threshold, even though many argue that it’s a matter of time before they rebound above $100 again.

Goldman is one of the bullish forecasters, with its analysts saying earlier this month that Brent crude could return to above $100 sooner than previously thought. In fact, they said that Brent could breach $125 per barrel next year 

Some analysts, such as Danish Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, also note the OPEC+ production cut, which will reduce the globally available supply of crude oil in the coming months, while demand for oil is expected to increase amid the embargo.

According to the International Energy Forum, a Saudi-based energy think-tank, oil supply could drop by between one and three million barrels daily because of the embargo, which will undoubtedly have an impact on prices. Chinese Covid policies could mitigate this impact, capping a potential rally.